Here's my end-of-season report for the 2003 Jays. Enjoy.
Hitters
Dave Berg
2003 season in one word: Invisible
A sixth infielder is like a bedroom flashlight. Normally you don't need one, but every now and again there's an emergency. Dave Berg fills the role about as well as anybody. Good teams have guys like this as their 25th man; bad teams have guys like Jacob Brumfield.
Grades by month: A B- F -- D- B
Final grade: C
Mike Bordick
2003 season in one word: Professional
Let's not get too carried away here - Bordick isn't a particularly good hitter. His .340 OBP is respectable, and he can pop a home run every now and again, but good teams have guys who can field like Bordick and hit like, well, Nomar Garciaparra. Having said that, Bordick has been a very useful player this year. He has served as an unofficial infield coach and role model, has played excellent defense, and has done everything his employers have asked him to do. It's a lot easier to root for guys like this than players such as Felipe Lopez. Rumours have it that he won't be back: if he is leaving, he'll go out with a bang, as he batted .304/.380/.393 after the break.
Grades by month: B- C C- A A B-
Final grade: B
Kevin Cash
2003 season in one word: Unidimensional
Mucho mucho defense, but nacho nacho bat. His air of authority and zippy accurate arm behind the plate cause veteran baseball men to dribble tobacco juice on their unifronts in excitement, but he's having trouble getting untracked at the plate, to put it mildly. He'll be given the first few months of next year to get his act together, but Quiroz's footsteps behind him are getting louder.
Grades by month: -- -- -- -- F D-
Final grade: F, but with an option for remedial work
Frank Catalanotto
2003 season in one word: Stylish
Has roughly the same skill set as Rance Mulliniks: good bat control, gap power, so-so defense. Walk total relatively low, but that's partly because he found a ball to hit before the enemy could walk him. Hit only .176/.250/.294 against lefties, which suggests that he works best as part of a platoon combination. Struggled in the summer. Wants to return to Toronto, and probably will.
Monthly grades: A A C+ F A B
Final grade: A-
Howie Clark
2003 season in one word: Redundant
Has roughly the same skills as Dave Berg, Mike Bordick, and Chris Woodward, except that he can't play short (as far as I know). If a reserve infield spot opens up, Clark will be the first in line to take it. He won't hurt the team if he gets it.
Monthly grades: -- -- A C+ -- --
Final grade: B (not enough playing time to rank higher)
Carlos Delgado
2003 season in one word: Batmonster
The whole "Should they sign Delgado?" question might have an obvious answer a year from now. Most of Carlos's awesomeness happened before the all-star break, the four-homer game notwithstanding. After the break, Delgado was .284/.428/.538, and Josh Phelps was .278/.373/.528, which suggests that the two of them are moving towards one another in ability. Having said that, I predict that Carlos's numbers should be good for a while: he's in good shape, he works hard, and he's been durable. His numbers are likely to regress to his 2001-2002 levels, though; after the four-homer barrage and the season-ending grand slam, pitchers aren't likely to give him anything good to hit until about 2006. Batted .267 away from home.
Grades by month: A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A
Final grade: A+
Eric Hinske
2003 season in one word: Gritty
To me, sometimes it seems like ballplayers go in and out of fashion, like hair styles or hemlines. If there was a "Hot Or Not?" for ballplayers, Hinske would be a Not: his injuries and well-documented defensive problems have dropped him well down the Blue Jays food chain. He also was conspicuously absent when the Jays offense turned into a shark pool for pitchers in June. But it's not as if Eric was a total liability: he whacked 50 extra-base hits - broken hand and all - stole 12 bases in 14 attempts, drew 59 walks, and was better than Ed Sprague at third. (Okay, that last one is damning with faint praise, I admit.) It's obvious, now, that Hinske will eventually lose his battle with third base, but his work ethic should keep him at the position for at least a couple of years. One day, though, he'll wake up and become the next incarnation of Kevin Witt.
Grades by month: C+ C- -- B+ C+ A
Final grade: B-
Ken Huckaby
2003 season in one word: Brief
Not Derek Jeter's favourite player. He will only return to Toronto if Myers and/or Wilson don't return, and if Cash continues to hit below .200. If he does return, the Jays' next postseason appearance will be put off until at least 2005.
Final grade: Incomplete
Orlando Hudson
2003 season in one word: Levophobic
"Levophobia" means "fear of things to the left side of the body." This describes Orlando Hudson to a T - he hit .160/.222/.190 against lefthanded pitchers. In other words, he hit like a pitcher against southpaws. This would rank as another strike against switch-hitting, except that the O-Dog is a natural righthanded hitter, and is hitting much better from his "wrong" side. Has no star potential, and will need to be platooned if this keeps up, but he can help a team with his excellent defense and his hustle.
Grades by month: C- A A C- D- B
Final grade: B
Reed Johnson
2003 season in one word: Hustle!
Seems to be making himself into a quality major league player by dint of sheer effort. Experienced a severe bump in the road in July and August, but recovered in September. The perfect fourth outfielder, and won't hurt you if he plays regularly. Bunts well, runs well, fields well, hustles conspicuously - what's not to like?
Grades by month: -- A A D+ D- A+
Final grade: B+
Bobby Kielty
2003 season in one word: Confusing
Seemed lost at sea for most of his time in Toronto. Switch-hitting is hurting him: he batted .187/.295/.309 against righthanded pitching. Has tremendous plate discipline, and a broad range of skills, but isn't particularly outstanding at anything. Played about as well as Reed Johnson, and occupies the same ecological niche. At some point, when Rios and Gross are ready, the Jays will have some choices to make.
Grades by month: -- -- -- B+ D+ A-
Final grade: B-
Greg Myers
2003 season in one word: Possessed
No one on the planet, including Myers himself, could have predicted that Crash would hit like Carlos Delgado for two months. By August, he'd reverted to being Greg Myers again, which is why no contender tried to pick him up at the trading deadline. The end could come swiftly: Darrin Fletcher had a year like this before crashing and burning, and the two men have a lot in common. Will be in demand as a backup catcher next year: there aren't many lefthanded hitting catchers with power and passable defense out there. And somebody like Baltimore might offer him a job as a regular, which the Jays won't do.
Grades by month: B+ A+ A+ B+ F B+
Grade: A-
Josh Phelps
2003 season in one word: Potential
As expected, experienced some major growing pains in 2003; being on Baseball Prospectus's cover, and becoming subject to its infamous jinx, didn't help. By the end of the season, he increased his walks, cut down on his strikeouts, and was starting to look like the hitter he appeared to be last year. I think he's not going to be as good as Delgado, but he still could be, and you can't say that about many hitters.
Monthly grades: B B- A D- A A-
Final grade: A-
Shannon Stewart
2003 season in one word: Predictable
In Toronto, did everything he usually does: reached base relatively often, ran well, didn't steal bases, looked confused in left field sometimes, threw poorly, and suffered a hamstring tweak. I've always liked him (sorry, Coach): he hits .300 consistently, and never seems to cause problems. Caught fire in Minnesota, as you all know; a writer or two seriously suggested that Shannon deserved the MVP for catalyzing the Twins, which is laying it on rather thick. My guess is that he might wind up in Los Angeles (or Baltimore).
Monthly grades: B+ A- A C --
Final, and final, grade: B+, and thanks for everything
Vernon Wells
2003 season in one word: Unstoppable
Continued improving throughout the season. Hit .344/.391/.542 after the all-star break; his slugging percentage after the break was higher than Delgado's. To give you an idea of what kind of player he is now: next year, he could win the home run title, the batting title, a Gold Glove in centre field, or all three. If he continues to grow at the normal rate of player development, he will be the second-best player in the American League at his peak (behind A-Rod). Is now the best player named "Wells" in Jays history.
Monthly grades: B- A+ A+ A A+ A+
Final grade: A+
Jayson Werth
2003 season in one word: All-Or-Nothing
I was going to put "Werthless", but that's a bit cruel. Dick Schofield's nephew struck out 22 times in 48 at-bats, but had six extra-base hits and 10 RBI's. This suggests a hitter trying too hard to impress the brass. You can't blame him, really - I'm sure he's aware that the Jays have zillions of quality outfield prospects. Ironically, the Jays would probably be happy to trade him to Cincinnati for John Bale right about now.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- F --
Final grade: Incomplete
Tom Wilson
2003 season in one word: Fading
One of the reasons that the Jays are willing to give so much playing time to Kevin Cash is because Wilson faded badly in the second half. After the break, he hit .193/.280/.241 with no home runs and 4 doubles in 83 at-bats. And his defense isn't good enough to make up for his lack of hitting. Still has his plate discipline, but that might not be enough to hold a job, given the number of good hitting outfielders and first basemen on the Jays' roster.
Monthly grades: A A A+ F D- --
Final grade: C+
Chris Woodward
2003 season in one word: Overextended
We should have seen this coming: after all, except for a few occasional bursts of power in Syracuse, his career path to this point screams "utility player". And it was obvious to those of us who were watching Gonzo at short two years ago that Woody was stretched a bit at shortstop. He has a useful role to play on a good team, as he can play all four infield positions, and hits lefthanded pitching well: he was .307/.360/.485 against southpaws. Could be a good platoon partner for the O-Dog at second, or a serviceable shortstop when a flyball pitcher such as Towers is on the mound. Will probably be the Jays' regular shortstop in 2004, as they don't have anybody better above AA ball, and anybody they sign is likely to have a bat of balsa.
Monthly grades: C- A- A- C- C+ F
Final grade: C
Pitchers
Juan Acevedo
2003 season in one word: Uncontrolled
An impressive decline: he went from "closer for the New York Yankees" to "unemployed" in the space of less than a year. From what I saw of him, he looked like a pitcher with good stuff but no idea where it was going - which makes him no better than hundreds of young minor-league wannabees. He might find his range someday, but so might any of the hundreds.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- F --
Final grade: F
Brian Bowles
2003 season in one word: Interchangeable
One of many so-so young pitching prospects hoping for a big break. I see no reason to expect anything from him, but you never know: I didn't expect anything from Jason Kershner, and look what he did.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- C --
Final grade: Incomplete
Vinny Chulk
2003 season in one word: Interchangeable
One of many so-so young pitching prospects hoping for a big break. I see no reason to expect anything from him, but you never know: I didn't expect anything from Jason Kershner, and look what he did.
Final grade: Incomplete
Doug Creek
2003 season in one word: Unreliable
The first of J.P.'s Terrible Trio of pitcher signings, Creek had a tendency to be wild and high out there, which made him unsuitable for the late-inning spot lefty situations for which he was hired. Trever Miller has taken this role away in Creek's absence, so Creek is likely up the proverbial, er, creek without a paddle.
Monthly grades: C- D- --
Final grade: Gone, hopefully
Doug Davis
2003 season in one word: Nibbler
Picked up from Texas in mid-season, Davis hung around the fringes of the strike zone and the starting rotation for a few weeks, being beaten unmercifully about the head and shoulders for a bit, before being released. Wound up in Milwaukee, and actually pitched well there, posting a 2.58 ERA in eight starts as a Brewer. His K/IP ratio, both there and here, suggests a marginal talent - somebody who has to hit his spots every time out in order to succeed. Pitching is a lot easier when you can sometimes rear back and blow the ball by a hitter.
Monthly grades: -- D+ F --
Final grade: F, and enjoy the bratwurst
Kelvim Escobar
2003 season in one word: Cyclothymic
Escobar's season was a made-for-TV mini-series: after failing horribly as a reliever, and kicking butt in late spring as a starter, Escobar settled down and became a reasonably consistent mid-level starter. (I never would have predicted I would use "Escobar" and "consistent" in the same sentence.) Still has great stuff, but will he harness it completely before he loses it? Will likely be gone - somebody will offer him a huge contract. My latest guess is Baltimore. J.P. is probably already plotting what he's going to do with the extra draft pick.
Monthly grades: F B+ A C B+ C+
Final grade: B
Roy Halladay
2003 season in one word: Cy!
I don't think I can add anything here that you don't already know. Got his 22 wins in five months - Doc was winless in April. He's not afraid to challenge hitters, which leads to the occasional burst of gopheritis: his 26 home runs allowed led the staff. But his willingness to throw strikes makes him an extremely valuable property, as he can go deep into games without racking up high pitch totals. Pitched 266 innings without significant arm abuse. I don't know whether he'll get the Cy, but in the end it doesn't matter: he's clearly a Cy-calibre pitcher, and has been for the last 2 1/2 years. At this point, only Stieb and Clemens (and possibly Henke) have ever pitched better in a Jays' uniform than Doc.
Monthly grades: C- A A+ A+ C A+
Final grade: A+
Mark Hendrickson
2003 season in one word: Marginal
Lurch dodged bullets all season long, pitching well enough to keep his spot as the fifth starter until September. The return of Pete Walker and the rise of Josh Towers have left Lurch in the, er, lurch; if the Jays use any of their spare cash to sign actual starting pitchers, Lurch may become an ex-baseball player as well as an ex-basketball player. Allowed 24 home runs and 207 hits in 158 1/3 innings, which suggests a pitcher whose stuff isn't exactly overwhelming.
Monthly grades: F C- D- C- D+ F
Final grade: D-
Jason Kershner
2003 season in one word: Surprising
Emerged from nowhere to become an effective pitcher in the second half. (Recall that he couldn't beat out Tam, Sturtze, Linton, or Creek in spring training.) Throws strikes, and doesn't give up too many home runs; if you do that, you're going to be successful in this league. If he drops back a notch, he'll be competing with Trever Miller for the spot lefty job; if he steps forward a notch, he could become the next Paul Quantrill. I'd be worried about arm problems, though: he was apparently gassed by the end of the season. Seems to like it here: had a 2.36 ERA at home, and a 4.58 ERA on the road.
Monthly grades: F -- -- A B A
Final grade: B+
Cory Lidle
2003 season in one word: Disappointing
Obviously battled arm problems all summer: his K/IP was down, and he was being beaten like a gong. At one point, had the worst ERA of any regular starter in the American League, which is an impressive achievement in a league that has Texas and Tampa Bay in it. His chance of getting a big-money free-agent deal has gone down the tubes - at this point, he's probably looking at a minor-league contract with a spring-training invitation. Didn't pitch much worse at the Dome than on the road, so there's a possibility that the Jays might make him a non-roster invitee next year. I doubt he'll want to come back, though, and I don't think anyone here particularly wants him back.
Monthly grades: C+ A F F F C+
Final grade: D
Doug Linton
2003 season in one word: Brief
Served a brief stint as 12th man before being sent out in April. He didn't do well in Syracuse - his win-loss record was 2-10 - which suggests that his second tour of duty in Toronto isn't going to be any longer than his first. The Jays should avoid signing pitchers named Doug next year, since Creek, Davis and Linton all failed to work out.
No monthly grades
Final grade: F
Aquilino Lopez
2003 season in one word: Impressive
His career went in exactly the opposite direction to Juan Acevedo's: A-Lop started the year as a marginal Rule V draftee, only trusted to pitch in lopsided games, and wound up the Jays' closer and bullpen ace, more or less by default. Was sometimes the only reliever that Tosca trusted, which may mean that his arm is burnt out: he struck out only 16 batters in 26.1 innings after the break, which suggests that he has been tested to destruction. Had a 2.38 ERA at home, and a 4.78 ERA on the road.
Monthly grades: C- B+ B+ B- A- A+
Final grade: A-
Trever Miller
2003 season in one word: LOOGY
I keep wanting to call him "Trevor Millor". After an awful start, he settled down some, and served as the club's designated one-out spot lefthander. He did this well enough to set a club record for appearances. Another name in the long list of so-so spot lefties in Jays history, which includes Felix Heredia, Pedro Borbon, Graeme Lloyd, Gary Lavelle, and Dave Geisel. If he gets uppity, the Jays can always go and find another one. Fanned 19 batters in 20 1/3 innings after the all-star break.
Monthly grades: F C D- A C- C-
Final grade: C-
Cliff Politte
2003 season in one word: Slowdown
His stats scream that he's lost some of his stuff: he's still striking out a reasonable number of batters per nine innings, but not as many as he used to, and he's giving up a lot of home runs. This suggests a pitcher who is used to throwing the ball by hitters in certain situations, who is discovering that he can't do that any more. If he fully recovers from his injuries, he may bounce back to being the pitcher he was last year; if he doesn't, he'll have a three to four-year odyssey of reassignments and spring training invitations ahead of him before he figures out how to retire batters without the good heater. My bet, sadly, is on the latter. Had a 2.77 ERA at home and an 8.87 ERA on the road, and a 4.02 ERA after the break.
Monthly grades: B A F -- A- F
Final grade: C-
Dan Reichert
2003 season in one word: Ouch
Wow, that was some pounding he took. Joins the legions of AAA pitchers hoping to refine their craft or learn that one special pitch that will get them back to earning major-league meal money. He could do it, but so could dozens of others.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- F F
Final grade: F
Scott Service
2003 season in one word: Unpredictable
This guy is supposed to be a seasoned major league veteran, and yet he pitched like a kid: his K/IP, H/IP and HR/IP ratios were those of a much younger man. When he proved unreliable in close games, he was shown the door. Heck, he was probably booted through the door with great force.
Monthly grades: -- -- B+ D- --
Final grade: Goodbye
Tanyon Sturtze
2003 season in one word: Bleaughghghgh
I will pause a moment here, and allow the bile to settle back down in your throats. Okay, now that we're ready: Sturtze managed to hang on to his job mostly because he's durable. He can go several innings in a pinch, which meant that Tosca never had a severe case of the pitching shorts, despite changing relievers more often than socks. That's about the only positive thing I can say about Sturtze: he was supposed to pitch 200 mediocre innings for the Jays in 2003, and wound up roughly 111 short. Became a lightning rod for the fans' pitching grievances. His major league career may be over as of this moment; however, his road ERA was 4.88, so somebody might give him a chance.
Monthly grades: D+ F C- F F D-
Final grade: F, with great gusto
Jeff Tam
2003 season in one word: Hittable
Surrendered fewer home runs than most of the other cruddy pitchers that made their way through the Toronto bullpen, but was very hittable, giving up 58 hits in his 44 2/3 innings of work. For some reason, Carlos Tosca kept throwing him out there: he finished fourth on the team in appearances, despite not pitching an inning after June. Pitched well in Triple-A, which suggests that he is about to join the legion of Quadruple-A players waiting for somebody's elbow to explode. His 3.27 road ERA suggests that Tam might be better off in someone else's minor league system; legions of Jays fans agree with this sentiment.
Monthly grades: F D- F --
Final grade: F
Corey Thurman
2003 season in one word: Bypassed
Called up in August for his One Big Chance, pitched well in his first start, and then proceeded to come horribly unglued in his next two. He wasn't called up in September, so you have to assume he is history in Toronto - once McGowan and Bush arrive, there won't be any space for the Thurmanator. His K/IP ratios in the majors and minors are good, so he might harness his stuff someday.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- F --
Final grade: F
Josh Towers
2003 season in one word: Unsubtle
Has a refreshingly direct approach to pitching: he throws the ball over the plate, and assumes that the batter is more likely to miss it than hit it. When combined with the Jays' offense and the soft fall schedule, this approach led to eight wins in 14 games. But this approach also led to a fantastically high number of home runs allowed: he surrendered 15 big flies in 64 1/3 innings, which is an Ackerian rate of bombing. I can't see him surviving an April in Toronto with the roof closed and nastier opponents, but you never can tell. Attention, stat geeks: how many pitchers have had more wins than walks in a season? Has anyone done it before Towers did it this year? (Maybe Boomer has done it.) Had a 9.26 ERA as a reliever, so if he doesn't make the rotation, it's bombs away.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- D- A-
Final grade: C+
John Wasdin
2003 season in one word: Ludicrous
Surrendered 16 hits and 13 runs in his five innings of work as a Jay - which included two starts. Roy Halladay could probably do better than that pitching with his left arm. Had odd numbers in Syracuse - compiled a 5.23 ERA while working 20 2/3 innings for the Skychiefs, and walked only one (1) batter in the process. He is not likely to be back.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- F --
Final grade: Guess
Pete Walker
2003 season in one word: Handy
The vanilla ice cream, or roast beef sandwich, of pitchers: sort of okay, but not memorable. Doesn't like home cooking: had a 5.64 ERA at home, and 3.96 away. Struck out only 29 in 55 1/3 innings, which suggests that he hasn't completely recovered from his arm woes. Will be useful if he completely heals: pitchers who can spot start and help out in long relief in the pen are hard to find. Was better as a reliever, at least based on this small sample size: had a 2.91 ERA out of the pen, but a 6.15 ERA as a starter.
Monthly grades: D- C- -- -- B- B+
Final grade: C
Management
Since everybody has an opinion about the manager and front office, here's mine.
The hardest thing for a manager to do is keep the respect of his players, and Carlos Tosca seems to be able to do that. Since Martinez, Fregosi, and Johnson all couldn't do it, you've got to give Tosca credit. This is even more impressive considering that Tosca didn't play pro ball, let alone major league ball - many major leaguers refuse to listen to someone who didn't make it to the majors themselves. Tosca's strategic quirks have been discussed elsewhere: the good news is that he didn't abuse his starting pitchers, despite having a crappy bullpen, and became a bit more sensible about pitching changes once the pen began to solidify a bit. Overall, I'd say he had a roughly neutral effect on the club.
I can't begin to estimate how well a GM is doing, since so much of what a GM does is hidden from the public. We don't know what deals J.P. turned down. I'd venture that Ricciardi has done a good job so far, but now comes the hard part: it's a lot easier to get from 75 wins to 85 than from 85 to 95 (or 100). Two years from now, we'll have a better idea whether J.P. is an outstanding GM or not.
Hitters
Dave Berg
2003 season in one word: Invisible
A sixth infielder is like a bedroom flashlight. Normally you don't need one, but every now and again there's an emergency. Dave Berg fills the role about as well as anybody. Good teams have guys like this as their 25th man; bad teams have guys like Jacob Brumfield.
Grades by month: A B- F -- D- B
Final grade: C
Mike Bordick
2003 season in one word: Professional
Let's not get too carried away here - Bordick isn't a particularly good hitter. His .340 OBP is respectable, and he can pop a home run every now and again, but good teams have guys who can field like Bordick and hit like, well, Nomar Garciaparra. Having said that, Bordick has been a very useful player this year. He has served as an unofficial infield coach and role model, has played excellent defense, and has done everything his employers have asked him to do. It's a lot easier to root for guys like this than players such as Felipe Lopez. Rumours have it that he won't be back: if he is leaving, he'll go out with a bang, as he batted .304/.380/.393 after the break.
Grades by month: B- C C- A A B-
Final grade: B
Kevin Cash
2003 season in one word: Unidimensional
Mucho mucho defense, but nacho nacho bat. His air of authority and zippy accurate arm behind the plate cause veteran baseball men to dribble tobacco juice on their unifronts in excitement, but he's having trouble getting untracked at the plate, to put it mildly. He'll be given the first few months of next year to get his act together, but Quiroz's footsteps behind him are getting louder.
Grades by month: -- -- -- -- F D-
Final grade: F, but with an option for remedial work
Frank Catalanotto
2003 season in one word: Stylish
Has roughly the same skill set as Rance Mulliniks: good bat control, gap power, so-so defense. Walk total relatively low, but that's partly because he found a ball to hit before the enemy could walk him. Hit only .176/.250/.294 against lefties, which suggests that he works best as part of a platoon combination. Struggled in the summer. Wants to return to Toronto, and probably will.
Monthly grades: A A C+ F A B
Final grade: A-
Howie Clark
2003 season in one word: Redundant
Has roughly the same skills as Dave Berg, Mike Bordick, and Chris Woodward, except that he can't play short (as far as I know). If a reserve infield spot opens up, Clark will be the first in line to take it. He won't hurt the team if he gets it.
Monthly grades: -- -- A C+ -- --
Final grade: B (not enough playing time to rank higher)
Carlos Delgado
2003 season in one word: Batmonster
The whole "Should they sign Delgado?" question might have an obvious answer a year from now. Most of Carlos's awesomeness happened before the all-star break, the four-homer game notwithstanding. After the break, Delgado was .284/.428/.538, and Josh Phelps was .278/.373/.528, which suggests that the two of them are moving towards one another in ability. Having said that, I predict that Carlos's numbers should be good for a while: he's in good shape, he works hard, and he's been durable. His numbers are likely to regress to his 2001-2002 levels, though; after the four-homer barrage and the season-ending grand slam, pitchers aren't likely to give him anything good to hit until about 2006. Batted .267 away from home.
Grades by month: A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A
Final grade: A+
Eric Hinske
2003 season in one word: Gritty
To me, sometimes it seems like ballplayers go in and out of fashion, like hair styles or hemlines. If there was a "Hot Or Not?" for ballplayers, Hinske would be a Not: his injuries and well-documented defensive problems have dropped him well down the Blue Jays food chain. He also was conspicuously absent when the Jays offense turned into a shark pool for pitchers in June. But it's not as if Eric was a total liability: he whacked 50 extra-base hits - broken hand and all - stole 12 bases in 14 attempts, drew 59 walks, and was better than Ed Sprague at third. (Okay, that last one is damning with faint praise, I admit.) It's obvious, now, that Hinske will eventually lose his battle with third base, but his work ethic should keep him at the position for at least a couple of years. One day, though, he'll wake up and become the next incarnation of Kevin Witt.
Grades by month: C+ C- -- B+ C+ A
Final grade: B-
Ken Huckaby
2003 season in one word: Brief
Not Derek Jeter's favourite player. He will only return to Toronto if Myers and/or Wilson don't return, and if Cash continues to hit below .200. If he does return, the Jays' next postseason appearance will be put off until at least 2005.
Final grade: Incomplete
Orlando Hudson
2003 season in one word: Levophobic
"Levophobia" means "fear of things to the left side of the body." This describes Orlando Hudson to a T - he hit .160/.222/.190 against lefthanded pitchers. In other words, he hit like a pitcher against southpaws. This would rank as another strike against switch-hitting, except that the O-Dog is a natural righthanded hitter, and is hitting much better from his "wrong" side. Has no star potential, and will need to be platooned if this keeps up, but he can help a team with his excellent defense and his hustle.
Grades by month: C- A A C- D- B
Final grade: B
Reed Johnson
2003 season in one word: Hustle!
Seems to be making himself into a quality major league player by dint of sheer effort. Experienced a severe bump in the road in July and August, but recovered in September. The perfect fourth outfielder, and won't hurt you if he plays regularly. Bunts well, runs well, fields well, hustles conspicuously - what's not to like?
Grades by month: -- A A D+ D- A+
Final grade: B+
Bobby Kielty
2003 season in one word: Confusing
Seemed lost at sea for most of his time in Toronto. Switch-hitting is hurting him: he batted .187/.295/.309 against righthanded pitching. Has tremendous plate discipline, and a broad range of skills, but isn't particularly outstanding at anything. Played about as well as Reed Johnson, and occupies the same ecological niche. At some point, when Rios and Gross are ready, the Jays will have some choices to make.
Grades by month: -- -- -- B+ D+ A-
Final grade: B-
Greg Myers
2003 season in one word: Possessed
No one on the planet, including Myers himself, could have predicted that Crash would hit like Carlos Delgado for two months. By August, he'd reverted to being Greg Myers again, which is why no contender tried to pick him up at the trading deadline. The end could come swiftly: Darrin Fletcher had a year like this before crashing and burning, and the two men have a lot in common. Will be in demand as a backup catcher next year: there aren't many lefthanded hitting catchers with power and passable defense out there. And somebody like Baltimore might offer him a job as a regular, which the Jays won't do.
Grades by month: B+ A+ A+ B+ F B+
Grade: A-
Josh Phelps
2003 season in one word: Potential
As expected, experienced some major growing pains in 2003; being on Baseball Prospectus's cover, and becoming subject to its infamous jinx, didn't help. By the end of the season, he increased his walks, cut down on his strikeouts, and was starting to look like the hitter he appeared to be last year. I think he's not going to be as good as Delgado, but he still could be, and you can't say that about many hitters.
Monthly grades: B B- A D- A A-
Final grade: A-
Shannon Stewart
2003 season in one word: Predictable
In Toronto, did everything he usually does: reached base relatively often, ran well, didn't steal bases, looked confused in left field sometimes, threw poorly, and suffered a hamstring tweak. I've always liked him (sorry, Coach): he hits .300 consistently, and never seems to cause problems. Caught fire in Minnesota, as you all know; a writer or two seriously suggested that Shannon deserved the MVP for catalyzing the Twins, which is laying it on rather thick. My guess is that he might wind up in Los Angeles (or Baltimore).
Monthly grades: B+ A- A C --
Final, and final, grade: B+, and thanks for everything
Vernon Wells
2003 season in one word: Unstoppable
Continued improving throughout the season. Hit .344/.391/.542 after the all-star break; his slugging percentage after the break was higher than Delgado's. To give you an idea of what kind of player he is now: next year, he could win the home run title, the batting title, a Gold Glove in centre field, or all three. If he continues to grow at the normal rate of player development, he will be the second-best player in the American League at his peak (behind A-Rod). Is now the best player named "Wells" in Jays history.
Monthly grades: B- A+ A+ A A+ A+
Final grade: A+
Jayson Werth
2003 season in one word: All-Or-Nothing
I was going to put "Werthless", but that's a bit cruel. Dick Schofield's nephew struck out 22 times in 48 at-bats, but had six extra-base hits and 10 RBI's. This suggests a hitter trying too hard to impress the brass. You can't blame him, really - I'm sure he's aware that the Jays have zillions of quality outfield prospects. Ironically, the Jays would probably be happy to trade him to Cincinnati for John Bale right about now.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- F --
Final grade: Incomplete
Tom Wilson
2003 season in one word: Fading
One of the reasons that the Jays are willing to give so much playing time to Kevin Cash is because Wilson faded badly in the second half. After the break, he hit .193/.280/.241 with no home runs and 4 doubles in 83 at-bats. And his defense isn't good enough to make up for his lack of hitting. Still has his plate discipline, but that might not be enough to hold a job, given the number of good hitting outfielders and first basemen on the Jays' roster.
Monthly grades: A A A+ F D- --
Final grade: C+
Chris Woodward
2003 season in one word: Overextended
We should have seen this coming: after all, except for a few occasional bursts of power in Syracuse, his career path to this point screams "utility player". And it was obvious to those of us who were watching Gonzo at short two years ago that Woody was stretched a bit at shortstop. He has a useful role to play on a good team, as he can play all four infield positions, and hits lefthanded pitching well: he was .307/.360/.485 against southpaws. Could be a good platoon partner for the O-Dog at second, or a serviceable shortstop when a flyball pitcher such as Towers is on the mound. Will probably be the Jays' regular shortstop in 2004, as they don't have anybody better above AA ball, and anybody they sign is likely to have a bat of balsa.
Monthly grades: C- A- A- C- C+ F
Final grade: C
Pitchers
Juan Acevedo
2003 season in one word: Uncontrolled
An impressive decline: he went from "closer for the New York Yankees" to "unemployed" in the space of less than a year. From what I saw of him, he looked like a pitcher with good stuff but no idea where it was going - which makes him no better than hundreds of young minor-league wannabees. He might find his range someday, but so might any of the hundreds.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- F --
Final grade: F
Brian Bowles
2003 season in one word: Interchangeable
One of many so-so young pitching prospects hoping for a big break. I see no reason to expect anything from him, but you never know: I didn't expect anything from Jason Kershner, and look what he did.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- C --
Final grade: Incomplete
Vinny Chulk
2003 season in one word: Interchangeable
One of many so-so young pitching prospects hoping for a big break. I see no reason to expect anything from him, but you never know: I didn't expect anything from Jason Kershner, and look what he did.
Final grade: Incomplete
Doug Creek
2003 season in one word: Unreliable
The first of J.P.'s Terrible Trio of pitcher signings, Creek had a tendency to be wild and high out there, which made him unsuitable for the late-inning spot lefty situations for which he was hired. Trever Miller has taken this role away in Creek's absence, so Creek is likely up the proverbial, er, creek without a paddle.
Monthly grades: C- D- --
Final grade: Gone, hopefully
Doug Davis
2003 season in one word: Nibbler
Picked up from Texas in mid-season, Davis hung around the fringes of the strike zone and the starting rotation for a few weeks, being beaten unmercifully about the head and shoulders for a bit, before being released. Wound up in Milwaukee, and actually pitched well there, posting a 2.58 ERA in eight starts as a Brewer. His K/IP ratio, both there and here, suggests a marginal talent - somebody who has to hit his spots every time out in order to succeed. Pitching is a lot easier when you can sometimes rear back and blow the ball by a hitter.
Monthly grades: -- D+ F --
Final grade: F, and enjoy the bratwurst
Kelvim Escobar
2003 season in one word: Cyclothymic
Escobar's season was a made-for-TV mini-series: after failing horribly as a reliever, and kicking butt in late spring as a starter, Escobar settled down and became a reasonably consistent mid-level starter. (I never would have predicted I would use "Escobar" and "consistent" in the same sentence.) Still has great stuff, but will he harness it completely before he loses it? Will likely be gone - somebody will offer him a huge contract. My latest guess is Baltimore. J.P. is probably already plotting what he's going to do with the extra draft pick.
Monthly grades: F B+ A C B+ C+
Final grade: B
Roy Halladay
2003 season in one word: Cy!
I don't think I can add anything here that you don't already know. Got his 22 wins in five months - Doc was winless in April. He's not afraid to challenge hitters, which leads to the occasional burst of gopheritis: his 26 home runs allowed led the staff. But his willingness to throw strikes makes him an extremely valuable property, as he can go deep into games without racking up high pitch totals. Pitched 266 innings without significant arm abuse. I don't know whether he'll get the Cy, but in the end it doesn't matter: he's clearly a Cy-calibre pitcher, and has been for the last 2 1/2 years. At this point, only Stieb and Clemens (and possibly Henke) have ever pitched better in a Jays' uniform than Doc.
Monthly grades: C- A A+ A+ C A+
Final grade: A+
Mark Hendrickson
2003 season in one word: Marginal
Lurch dodged bullets all season long, pitching well enough to keep his spot as the fifth starter until September. The return of Pete Walker and the rise of Josh Towers have left Lurch in the, er, lurch; if the Jays use any of their spare cash to sign actual starting pitchers, Lurch may become an ex-baseball player as well as an ex-basketball player. Allowed 24 home runs and 207 hits in 158 1/3 innings, which suggests a pitcher whose stuff isn't exactly overwhelming.
Monthly grades: F C- D- C- D+ F
Final grade: D-
Jason Kershner
2003 season in one word: Surprising
Emerged from nowhere to become an effective pitcher in the second half. (Recall that he couldn't beat out Tam, Sturtze, Linton, or Creek in spring training.) Throws strikes, and doesn't give up too many home runs; if you do that, you're going to be successful in this league. If he drops back a notch, he'll be competing with Trever Miller for the spot lefty job; if he steps forward a notch, he could become the next Paul Quantrill. I'd be worried about arm problems, though: he was apparently gassed by the end of the season. Seems to like it here: had a 2.36 ERA at home, and a 4.58 ERA on the road.
Monthly grades: F -- -- A B A
Final grade: B+
Cory Lidle
2003 season in one word: Disappointing
Obviously battled arm problems all summer: his K/IP was down, and he was being beaten like a gong. At one point, had the worst ERA of any regular starter in the American League, which is an impressive achievement in a league that has Texas and Tampa Bay in it. His chance of getting a big-money free-agent deal has gone down the tubes - at this point, he's probably looking at a minor-league contract with a spring-training invitation. Didn't pitch much worse at the Dome than on the road, so there's a possibility that the Jays might make him a non-roster invitee next year. I doubt he'll want to come back, though, and I don't think anyone here particularly wants him back.
Monthly grades: C+ A F F F C+
Final grade: D
Doug Linton
2003 season in one word: Brief
Served a brief stint as 12th man before being sent out in April. He didn't do well in Syracuse - his win-loss record was 2-10 - which suggests that his second tour of duty in Toronto isn't going to be any longer than his first. The Jays should avoid signing pitchers named Doug next year, since Creek, Davis and Linton all failed to work out.
No monthly grades
Final grade: F
Aquilino Lopez
2003 season in one word: Impressive
His career went in exactly the opposite direction to Juan Acevedo's: A-Lop started the year as a marginal Rule V draftee, only trusted to pitch in lopsided games, and wound up the Jays' closer and bullpen ace, more or less by default. Was sometimes the only reliever that Tosca trusted, which may mean that his arm is burnt out: he struck out only 16 batters in 26.1 innings after the break, which suggests that he has been tested to destruction. Had a 2.38 ERA at home, and a 4.78 ERA on the road.
Monthly grades: C- B+ B+ B- A- A+
Final grade: A-
Trever Miller
2003 season in one word: LOOGY
I keep wanting to call him "Trevor Millor". After an awful start, he settled down some, and served as the club's designated one-out spot lefthander. He did this well enough to set a club record for appearances. Another name in the long list of so-so spot lefties in Jays history, which includes Felix Heredia, Pedro Borbon, Graeme Lloyd, Gary Lavelle, and Dave Geisel. If he gets uppity, the Jays can always go and find another one. Fanned 19 batters in 20 1/3 innings after the all-star break.
Monthly grades: F C D- A C- C-
Final grade: C-
Cliff Politte
2003 season in one word: Slowdown
His stats scream that he's lost some of his stuff: he's still striking out a reasonable number of batters per nine innings, but not as many as he used to, and he's giving up a lot of home runs. This suggests a pitcher who is used to throwing the ball by hitters in certain situations, who is discovering that he can't do that any more. If he fully recovers from his injuries, he may bounce back to being the pitcher he was last year; if he doesn't, he'll have a three to four-year odyssey of reassignments and spring training invitations ahead of him before he figures out how to retire batters without the good heater. My bet, sadly, is on the latter. Had a 2.77 ERA at home and an 8.87 ERA on the road, and a 4.02 ERA after the break.
Monthly grades: B A F -- A- F
Final grade: C-
Dan Reichert
2003 season in one word: Ouch
Wow, that was some pounding he took. Joins the legions of AAA pitchers hoping to refine their craft or learn that one special pitch that will get them back to earning major-league meal money. He could do it, but so could dozens of others.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- F F
Final grade: F
Scott Service
2003 season in one word: Unpredictable
This guy is supposed to be a seasoned major league veteran, and yet he pitched like a kid: his K/IP, H/IP and HR/IP ratios were those of a much younger man. When he proved unreliable in close games, he was shown the door. Heck, he was probably booted through the door with great force.
Monthly grades: -- -- B+ D- --
Final grade: Goodbye
Tanyon Sturtze
2003 season in one word: Bleaughghghgh
I will pause a moment here, and allow the bile to settle back down in your throats. Okay, now that we're ready: Sturtze managed to hang on to his job mostly because he's durable. He can go several innings in a pinch, which meant that Tosca never had a severe case of the pitching shorts, despite changing relievers more often than socks. That's about the only positive thing I can say about Sturtze: he was supposed to pitch 200 mediocre innings for the Jays in 2003, and wound up roughly 111 short. Became a lightning rod for the fans' pitching grievances. His major league career may be over as of this moment; however, his road ERA was 4.88, so somebody might give him a chance.
Monthly grades: D+ F C- F F D-
Final grade: F, with great gusto
Jeff Tam
2003 season in one word: Hittable
Surrendered fewer home runs than most of the other cruddy pitchers that made their way through the Toronto bullpen, but was very hittable, giving up 58 hits in his 44 2/3 innings of work. For some reason, Carlos Tosca kept throwing him out there: he finished fourth on the team in appearances, despite not pitching an inning after June. Pitched well in Triple-A, which suggests that he is about to join the legion of Quadruple-A players waiting for somebody's elbow to explode. His 3.27 road ERA suggests that Tam might be better off in someone else's minor league system; legions of Jays fans agree with this sentiment.
Monthly grades: F D- F --
Final grade: F
Corey Thurman
2003 season in one word: Bypassed
Called up in August for his One Big Chance, pitched well in his first start, and then proceeded to come horribly unglued in his next two. He wasn't called up in September, so you have to assume he is history in Toronto - once McGowan and Bush arrive, there won't be any space for the Thurmanator. His K/IP ratios in the majors and minors are good, so he might harness his stuff someday.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- F --
Final grade: F
Josh Towers
2003 season in one word: Unsubtle
Has a refreshingly direct approach to pitching: he throws the ball over the plate, and assumes that the batter is more likely to miss it than hit it. When combined with the Jays' offense and the soft fall schedule, this approach led to eight wins in 14 games. But this approach also led to a fantastically high number of home runs allowed: he surrendered 15 big flies in 64 1/3 innings, which is an Ackerian rate of bombing. I can't see him surviving an April in Toronto with the roof closed and nastier opponents, but you never can tell. Attention, stat geeks: how many pitchers have had more wins than walks in a season? Has anyone done it before Towers did it this year? (Maybe Boomer has done it.) Had a 9.26 ERA as a reliever, so if he doesn't make the rotation, it's bombs away.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- -- D- A-
Final grade: C+
John Wasdin
2003 season in one word: Ludicrous
Surrendered 16 hits and 13 runs in his five innings of work as a Jay - which included two starts. Roy Halladay could probably do better than that pitching with his left arm. Had odd numbers in Syracuse - compiled a 5.23 ERA while working 20 2/3 innings for the Skychiefs, and walked only one (1) batter in the process. He is not likely to be back.
Monthly grades: -- -- -- F --
Final grade: Guess
Pete Walker
2003 season in one word: Handy
The vanilla ice cream, or roast beef sandwich, of pitchers: sort of okay, but not memorable. Doesn't like home cooking: had a 5.64 ERA at home, and 3.96 away. Struck out only 29 in 55 1/3 innings, which suggests that he hasn't completely recovered from his arm woes. Will be useful if he completely heals: pitchers who can spot start and help out in long relief in the pen are hard to find. Was better as a reliever, at least based on this small sample size: had a 2.91 ERA out of the pen, but a 6.15 ERA as a starter.
Monthly grades: D- C- -- -- B- B+
Final grade: C
Management
Since everybody has an opinion about the manager and front office, here's mine.
The hardest thing for a manager to do is keep the respect of his players, and Carlos Tosca seems to be able to do that. Since Martinez, Fregosi, and Johnson all couldn't do it, you've got to give Tosca credit. This is even more impressive considering that Tosca didn't play pro ball, let alone major league ball - many major leaguers refuse to listen to someone who didn't make it to the majors themselves. Tosca's strategic quirks have been discussed elsewhere: the good news is that he didn't abuse his starting pitchers, despite having a crappy bullpen, and became a bit more sensible about pitching changes once the pen began to solidify a bit. Overall, I'd say he had a roughly neutral effect on the club.
I can't begin to estimate how well a GM is doing, since so much of what a GM does is hidden from the public. We don't know what deals J.P. turned down. I'd venture that Ricciardi has done a good job so far, but now comes the hard part: it's a lot easier to get from 75 wins to 85 than from 85 to 95 (or 100). Two years from now, we'll have a better idea whether J.P. is an outstanding GM or not.
