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Game Reports Friday the 13th bullpen report- Bullpen report v.3

The Jays had a day off yesterday, but welcomed a new member to their bullpen, Scott Downs. And just in the nick of time for this 3rd installment of the bullpen report. If that hadn't happened, I would have resorted to the Friday the 13th Fake Game report.

You know the one. The War of the Worlds, the Clash of Pretenders. The Las Vegas Aliens of Caesar's Palace (\"Working for the Clampdown since before you were born\") vs. The New York Yankees (\"It's a thin line between superstar and superannuated\"). Believe me, you should be thanking Scott Downs for saving you.



Let's leap right into the numbers for the last 2 weeks.

April 29-May 12

(entrance inning/batters faced/opp. GPA)

date Batista  Speier   Frasor   W'side    Schoen      Chulk      Walker
                                         
Ap 25-------------------day off----------------------------

Ap 26 8.0/3             7.0/2             7.0/1        6.0/4
      .000              .000              .700         .175
Ap 27                   7.2/2             8.0/4
                        .225              .175
Ap 28 8.2/2   8.0/4                                    6.2/4
      .350    .413                                     .000


Ap 29 -----------------Doc's complete game-----------------
Ap 30                   7.0/3                          8.0/5
                        .000                           .527
Ma 1  8.0/3                               6.2/4                  5.0/7
      .000                                .000                   .129
Ma 2  11.0/3            7.1/7             10.2/3       10.0/3
      .000              .000              .225         .150
Ma 3  8.0/3
      .000
Ma 4                                      7.1/2
                                          .000
Ma 5-------------------day off----------------------------
Ma 6  7.1/4   8.0/3     6.0/7                                    5.0/4
      .308    .175      .242                                     .363
Ma 7                           1.2/11     8.0/3        6.0/6     3.1/8
                               .589       .000         .117      .088
Ma 8  8.1/2             7.0/5                          6.0/3
      .000              .000                           .233           
Ma 9          8.0/3
	      .000
Ma 10 ------------------Doc's complete game----------------
Ma 11 7.2/4             6.1/8             6.1/2        5.0/5     3.2/7
      .113              .431              1.35         .190      .424
Ma 12-------------------day off---------------------------

Miguel Batista pitched 8 times over the last two weeks, each time facing 2-4 batters. The very definition of the modern closer, and effective in this role so far. We are almost at the 1/4 point of the season, and Batista has thrown only 15.2 innings. So, what will the club do with him from here?

One option is to continue with him in the closer role for the remainder of the season. Another is to pull a Firpo Marberry on him. That is, put him in the rotation if a vacancy occurs. Batista had not thrown more than 135 innings prior to 2001, and has since then thrown 180-200 innings per season, but with declining effectiveness in August and September. It might be that he would pitch well later in the season if he had relatively few innings under his belt early on.

With the arrival of Scott Downs, the Jays now have 2 lefties in both the rotation and the pen. Naturally, this may lead to increased attempts by John Gibbons to gain the platoon advantage. Here are the opponents GPA since 2002 for each of the members of the pen against left and right:

pitcher        vs. LH     vs. RH
Batista         .260       .233
Chulk           .297       .221
Downs           .215       .305
Frasor          .239       .248
Schoeneweis     .204       .282
Speier          .257       .222
Walker          .285       .250

These figures come with the warning that only Batista, Speier, Schoeneweis and Walker have faced significant numbers of batters from both sides of the plate.

I certainly am not recommending the use of short stints to gain the platoon advantage. We will see how this new bullpen alignment plays out.

Your comments on the Jay bullpen and any other baseball news, horrifying or otherwise, are welcome here.

Posted by Mike Green on Friday, May 13 2005 @ 09:00 AM EDT.
Friday the 13th bullpen report- Bullpen report v.3 | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jonny German - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#116555) #
Nice report, Mike. I think the Downs for Whiteside move is a good one. Whiteside didn't have an obvious role on this team, while Downs can be used as a true LOOGY and possibly in long relief if he's rested, with Schoeneweis acting as lefty setup and taking the more high leverage lefty situations. Also, getting Downs out of Syracuse facilitates the eventual chain of starting pitcher promotions. I'm almost always in agreement with Gibbons' bullpen management, and I think he'll be able to use Downs effectively.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#116556) #
Speaking of horrifying, the Gleeman/Green bet is looking like a massacre:

Aaron's A team:

Mauer - 21 Runs created in the majors
Mathis- .320/.381/.640 in Triple A Salt Lake

Mike's Taxi Squad:

Navarro-.235/.370/.333 in Triple A Las Vegas
Quiroz- Triple A DL for at least another 6 weeks.

I'll have more gory details on this one in the next report.
[ Reply to This ]
Jonny German - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#116557) #
The Astros have released Brandon Duckworth. In March 2003 I suggested the Jays trade Kelvim Escobar to the Phillies for Duckworth and was told \"Escobar and Huckaby + cash for Duckworth has to be the most lopsided trade suggestion on the history of this site.\"... and Moffatt meant lopsided in favour of the Jays. Funny how things change. By the end of 2003 people had begun debating the merits of re-signing Escobar, by mid-2004 some were lambasting the GM for signing Batista and letting Escobar walk. Now Duckworth is freely available talent.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#116558) #
There's a handy reminder for discussions about Grade A pitching prospects who throw blistering heat (Duckworth circa 2002) and Grade B pitching prospects with good command. The separation is much closer than it is for hitters.

If Duckworth's arm is OK, he'd still be a good pickup for a team willing to stick him in the minors and let him work through things.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#116559) #

Here is an introduction to a fascinating stat, predicted OPS, in the Hardball Times. It is a creation of JC Bradbury, and essentially uses line drive rate and G/F data to try to suss out how much of a batter's batting average arises from hitting skill and how much arises from luck. From there, predicted on-base and slugging percentages are easily generated. Unfortunately, Bradbury apparently did not have access to pop-up rates for batters, which could help increase the accuracy of the stat. Small adjustments for the speed of the hitter and isolated power would also be appropriate.

A similar process can be used for pitchers, calculating predicted opposition on-base and slugging percentages from line drive, pop-up and G/F rates, along with 3 true outcome information. This could be useful in further separating the contributions of pitchers and defence in run prevention. This has been on my agenda since the winter.

[ Reply to This ]
Mick Doherty - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#116584) #
I don't believe anything with the word "predicted" in it can justifiably be classified a "statistic." Not that this isn't useful information; maybe it's just misnamed.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#116587) #
"Predicted" is a term of art here, from the realm of statistics. "Predicted" OPS refers not to an estimate, projection or guess of future performance, but the average OPS of players with certain ball in play and three true outcome performance.

For instance, in epidemiology, if you look at a group of say 100 people in the 45-55 age range, on average 3 might be die of stomach cancer in a 5 year period, whereas for a particular group of 100, 5 might have died in the same period. The epidemiologist will describe this comparison as actual deaths vs. predicted deaths.

Why are all my examples today morbid?
[ Reply to This ]
Gitz - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#116588) #
An epidemiological reference? Soon we'll have my wife posting! (And please, spare the "Well, at least we'll FINALLY have an intelligent Gizzi making posts!")
[ Reply to This ]
Fawaz - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#116592) #
Having Downs in Toronto certainly makes more sense than carrying Whiteside, but I think the rest of the bullpen has responded reasonably well to lefties (it's still early) and he may be just as redundant as Whiteside.

Worse, Gibbons may feel compelled to use him in certain situations (an impression I got from his early use of SS LOOGY and, to a degree, his PH use of McDonald). The splits don't really provide a lot of value, but in 46 at-bats against major league lefties in the last 3 years his BAA is .279. The slugging percentage is impressive, but with runners on base (often the reason a manager would consider going with a match-up), batting average becomes more important. Of course, since everything Gibbons has touched has turned to gold thus far (and really, what do I know?), this could work out.

Like most, I would prefer a six-man pen. I believe one way to make better use of Batista is to occasionally use him as a long man. He's (allegedly) got a rubber arm, and he would serve as a back-up to Walker in that role and eliminate the need for the 7th man (particularly with Chulk in the mix). The way he's throwing this year, I would even consider a few appearances as a LOOGY!
[ Reply to This ]
Mick Doherty - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#116593) #
An epidemiological reference? Soon we'll have my wife posting! (And please, spare the \"Well, at least we'll FINALLY have an intelligent Gizzi making posts!\")

Well, given the entire breadth of our knowledge about her is her choice of spouse ... nah, that's too easy.

[ Reply to This ]
Friday the 13th bullpen report- Bullpen report v.3 | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.