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Features The Gleeman-Green bet ends prematurely
I hear many voices saying: "What in the name of Ruth is he talking about?".  And that's fine with me.  The sooner the Gleeman\-Green bet is forgotten, the happier I will be.


Aaron Gleeman and I made a bet in late 2003 about four then-young catching prospects- Joe Mauer, Jeff Mathis, Guillermo Quiroz and Dioner Navarro.  Aaron took M and M; I took Q and Navarro.  The pair with the highest Win Share total for the period 2005-08 wins the bet.

You all know the results.  Joe Mauer has had one of the greatest career openings of any catcher ever, perhaps behind only Johnny Bench.  The other three have not yet been better than replacement level players.  The Win Share totals so far are:

Mauer      74
Navarro   11
Mathis      1
Quiroz      0

I suppose that it is theoretically possible for Navarro and Quiroz to turn in 34 Win Shares seasons each in 2008, and for Mauer and Mathis to earn 0 Win Shares, but it's a risk I am prepared to take.  I concede.

So, when the 2008 Twins schedule is released, I expect to receive an e-mail from Aaron with his preferences for tickets to a Jays-Twins game.  I see that Guillermo Quiroz' Baseball Reference page is unsponsored, and perhaps I should take care of that, too.  There is a lesson perhaps.  The "early success rate" of top catching prospects may be lower than either Aaron or I thought, as the dropout rate due to injury is significantly higher than for other positions.


Posted by Mike Green on Friday, September 07 2007 @ 12:38 PM EDT.
The Gleeman-Green bet ends prematurely | 5 comments | Create New Account
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Chuck - Friday, September 07 2007 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#174035) #
Entirely unrelated to the bet in question, David Littlefield got the axe today. I have every confidence that the organization can scare up another incompetent to take his place.
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Bid - Friday, September 07 2007 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#174036) #

If you as I did google David Littlefield, you may pause on your entry into the place of wikopinion, noticing the next entry:

"My name is David Littlefield. My wife Gretchen and I began collecting art glass in 1999, starting with colorful mini-pitchers..."

okay, maybe it's not that funny...  Wiki is already current, of course.

 

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FranklyScarlet - Friday, September 07 2007 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#174038) #

Mike

Two days ago there was an article in the Star Tribune where the writer was asking the Twins to move Mauer out from behind the plate!

I went back today to find the link:

http://www.startribune.com/509/story/1399507.html

 


 

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Mark - Saturday, September 08 2007 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#174104) #
I remember the bet. I didn't like your chances at the time but admired you backing up the Jays guy.

Remeber when the future looked bright behind the plate for the Jays. Werth, Phelps, Quiroz and Cash. You would have thought by now at least one of them would be starting for the Jays. I guess it's a lesson to not get overly excited about Thigpen, Diaz, Jeroloman and Arencibia.

It also brings into perspective why JP has been drafting a catcher fairly high for the last three years now.
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