College Hitters In the Upcoming Draft

Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 09:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pistol

For college hitters there's depth at 1B & 3B this year, particularly right around where the Jays will select in round 1 on June 5th.

When I look at a college line there's a few things I like to see at the top of the draft (it doesn't mean what I'm looking at is right, but it tells me a little more about a player than I might know otherwise):

  1. Improvement from year to year. Think of a player repeating rookie ball for three years. You would expect him to improve each year, no?
  2. No one year wonders. Players that come of nowhere make me skeptical. Call it the Brian Pettway effect (although in the third round a 'one year wonder' is fine).
  3. Strikeout rate under 20%. If you can't make contact in college you'll probably do a lot worse as a pro.
  4. Iso Slg in excess of .300. With metal bats you should be driving the ball a lot.
  5. A K/BB near 1:1, or less. This is a little tougher to tell since you don't know about intentional walks.
Anyway, here's the consensus top college hitters (from BA, ESPN, and Sickels) - it looks like the first 4 will go in the top 10 and then the rest could go anywhere from 10 to the end of the round 1. Links provided (where available) are from MILB's scouting reports.


Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Pedro Alvarez 2006 240 0.329 0.456 0.675 1.12 21%
Pedro Alvarez 2007 272 0.386 0.463 0.684 1.63 21%
Pedro Alvarez 2008 116 0.302 0.421 0.534 0.86 13%

The Vandy 3B was at one point the clear #1 pick, but a wrist injury at the beginning of the year has slowed him this year. Regardless of that, he's going in the top 5.


Buster Posey, C, Florida St:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Buster Posey 2006 246 0.346 0.433 0.467 1.18 15%
Buster Posey 2007 246 0.382 0.453 0.520 0.84 9%
Buster Posey 2008 188 0.463 0.563 0.835 0.40 7%

The Florida St catcher has shot up the draft boards this season as he's killing everything right now. Apparently the Rays are considering him with the #1 pick. His numbers prior to this year were good, but it has a little bit of a out of nowhere feel to it that would make me skeptical that high. But man, what a line that is, especially for a catcher.


Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Gordon Beckham 2006 286 0.280 0.348 0.490 2.15 18%
Gordon Beckham 2007 228 0.307 0.399 0.570 1.06 12%
Gordon Beckham 2008 195 0.405 0.515 0.836 0.59 9%

You can say similar things about Beckham as you can about Posey. He can apparently stick at SS. I always feel SEC players are a little underrated due to park factors/competition so I'd be pretty bullish on Beckham in the top 10.


Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Justin Smoak 2006 244 0.303 0.407 0.586 0.98 13%
Justin Smoak 2007 260 0.315 0.434 0.631 0.74 13%
Justin Smoak 2008 194 0.392 0.510 0.773 0.54 10%

Another SEC product, the South Carolina 1B has improved nicely each year across the board. He also switch hits which I appreciate more watching how RH the Jays became. He should be another top 10 pick.


Yonder Alonso, 1B, U Miami:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Yonder Alonso 2006 244 0.295 0.373 0.492 1.16 13%
Yonder Alonso 2007 210 0.376 0.519 0.705 0.48 11%
Yonder Alonso 2008 150 0.373 0.537 0.753 0.36 9%

Another 1B, this one from Miami. He looks pretty similar to Smoak (but only a LH hitter), although not quite as highly rated. He could go in the area right around where the Jays select.


Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Brett Wallace 2006 151 0.371 0.439 0.583 1.53 15%
Brett Wallace 2007 265 0.404 0.484 0.687 1.00 12%
Brett Wallace 2008 186 0.414 0.538 0.747 0.66 11%

Wallace was selected by the Jays in the 42nd round 3 years ago. They didn't sign him away from Arizona State and he stands to make a lot more now because of it. He's improved across the board each year. He's currently at 3B, but most feel he'd need to go to 1B in the pros. The Jays liked him once, and I don't think he's done anything to make them feel differently. If he's available to the Jays in the first round I think he might be their target. That he hits LH would be a bonus.


David Cooper, 1B, Cal:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
David Cooper 2006 151 0.305 0.337 0.404 2.00 11%
David Cooper 2007 204 0.382 0.450 0.627 0.70 9%
David Cooper 2008 196 0.378 0.468 0.735 0.71 11%

Another lefty 1B, Cooper has been improving each year in college (his first was at Cal St Fullerton).


Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichata St:

Player
Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Conor Gillaspie 2006 261 0.352 0.413 0.525 0.89 8%
Conor Gillaspie 2007 295 0.325 0.358 0.495 2.50 13%
Conor Gillaspie 2008 183 0.404 0.491 0.667 0.58 8%

Another corner college hitter. The 3B from Wichata St slipped a little in his sophomore year, but is putting up big lines again. Gillaspie was the MVP of the Cape Cod League last year which the Jays seem to value.


Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Reese Havens 2006 239 0.259 0.348 0.368 1.23 13%
Reese Havens 2007 234 0.274 0.337 0.389 2.00 16%
Reese Havens 2008 208 0.365 0.490 0.630 0.71 13%

A college SS likely to move to 3B in the pros. The 2008 line jumps out at me compared to 06 and 07.


Jemile Weeks, 2B, U Miami:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Jemile Weeks 2006 256 0.352 0.446 0.555 0.73 9%
Jemile Weeks 2007 188 0.298 0.393 0.489 1.00 12%
Jemile Weeks 2008 172 0.372 0.442 0.669 1.24 12%

Rickie's brother has been on the radar since his freshman year at Miami. What concerns me is that he's not much better today, and he's pretty much stuck at 2B.

-------------------

For the Jays if they go the college hitter route it looks like they'll be in the area where Alonso, Wallace and Gillaspie will be taken. If you think Wallace can play 3B in the pros he's probably the most valuable of the three. If not it's probably Alonso. I could reasonably see the Jays taking any of those three players with their first round selection, and I suspect that 2 of the 3 will be available. The Twins, Dodgers, and Brewers all select just ahead of the Jays and haven't typically been interested in the same players.

I haven't heard any scuttlebutt with who the Jays are interested in (not sure if Elliot has anything, I generally avoid the Sun). If anyone's seen anything feel free to link it in the comments.

Next week I'll take a look at the college pitchers.

19 comments


https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20080512131738453