If anyone made a big step toward Cooperstown in 2004, it was Scott Rolen. Always a great third baseman, he took a step forward with the bat, hitting .314/.409/.598. He was a clear MVP candidate for the first time in his career.
Scott Rolen was drafted by the Phillies in the 2nd round of the 1993 draft. He was 18 years old. He played for a month in Rookie ball that season, hitting .300 but without power. In 1994, he hit .294 with medium range power and good plate discipline in low A ball, and repeated that performance in high A in 1995. He broke out in 1996, hitting .361 in half a season in double A, and reached the majors by September. From 1997-2003, he has been a consistent .270-.290 hitter with 25-30 homer power and 70-90 walks per season.
He has also been a perennial Gold Glove winner, and his defensive statistics over his career are easily the best among the third basemen of the time. While he has been slowed by injuries, he stole bases at an effective rate during his 20s.
Rolen's comparables according to baseballreference.com are fascinating. Five names caught my attention: Dick Allen, Gary Sheffield, Barry Bonds, Reggie Jackson, and Daryl Strawberry. Great hitters but not necessarily prime candidates to have "For He's a Jolly Good Fella" sung to them by their teammates. Anyways, none of these guys are perennial Gold Glove winning third basemen either. Instead, I chose Ron Santo and Mike Schmidt. Here is the age 29 comparison:
Ron Santo performed at essentially the same level as Rolen, but had 2 full seasons more on his resume at this point. Santo only played 5 seasons in his 30s however. Mike Schmidt's age 29 season was 1979, just before he broke out in 1980 and 1981 with historic seasons that are arguably the best by a third baseman ever. Schmidt aged very well, playing until 39 and collecting silverware all along the way.
It is really too early to say too much about Rolen. If he ages normally (better than Santo, but not as well as Schmidt), he should end up with career statistics very similar to Santo. Santo is not in the Hall of Fame, but clearly should be, and the Veterans Committee might very well remedy this omission in the next balloting.
Next up: Chipper Jones.
Scott Rolen was drafted by the Phillies in the 2nd round of the 1993 draft. He was 18 years old. He played for a month in Rookie ball that season, hitting .300 but without power. In 1994, he hit .294 with medium range power and good plate discipline in low A ball, and repeated that performance in high A in 1995. He broke out in 1996, hitting .361 in half a season in double A, and reached the majors by September. From 1997-2003, he has been a consistent .270-.290 hitter with 25-30 homer power and 70-90 walks per season.
He has also been a perennial Gold Glove winner, and his defensive statistics over his career are easily the best among the third basemen of the time. While he has been slowed by injuries, he stole bases at an effective rate during his 20s.
Rolen's comparables according to baseballreference.com are fascinating. Five names caught my attention: Dick Allen, Gary Sheffield, Barry Bonds, Reggie Jackson, and Daryl Strawberry. Great hitters but not necessarily prime candidates to have "For He's a Jolly Good Fella" sung to them by their teammates. Anyways, none of these guys are perennial Gold Glove winning third basemen either. Instead, I chose Ron Santo and Mike Schmidt. Here is the age 29 comparison:
Player G AB H HR W BA OBP SLUG OPS+
Rolen 1195 4390 1254 226 600 .286 .378 .520 132
Santo 1536 5658 1592 253 768 .281 .366 .478 131
Schmidt 1084 3713 947 253 689 .255 .374 .511 142
Ron Santo performed at essentially the same level as Rolen, but had 2 full seasons more on his resume at this point. Santo only played 5 seasons in his 30s however. Mike Schmidt's age 29 season was 1979, just before he broke out in 1980 and 1981 with historic seasons that are arguably the best by a third baseman ever. Schmidt aged very well, playing until 39 and collecting silverware all along the way.
It is really too early to say too much about Rolen. If he ages normally (better than Santo, but not as well as Schmidt), he should end up with career statistics very similar to Santo. Santo is not in the Hall of Fame, but clearly should be, and the Veterans Committee might very well remedy this omission in the next balloting.
Next up: Chipper Jones.
