It is time to plan the minor league rosters for 2005. When I asked Dick Scott how he allocated the players to the teams he acknowledged that he first places his top prospects and then fills around them. He also said that 90% of the decisions are made before the players report in the spring; so let's see how we would do it if it was our call.
I will start with some of the September call-ups and then move on to Jordan's list of top 30 prospects.
Russ Adams will be with the Blue Jays
Gabe Gross will be playing in AAA
Guillermo Quiroz will be catching in AAA
Eric Crozier will be manning first base in AAA
Gustavo Chacin will likely be in the Syracuse rotation
Brandon League will probably be in the bullpen in Toronto
We need to understand the bullpen in Toronto. At this writing we have Jason Frasor; Justin Speier; Kerry Ligtenberg; Vinnie Chulk; Justin Miller; Billy Koch; Scott Schoeneweiss; and Brandon League takes us to eight in the pen. At least one of these pitchers will be bumped to AAA. This assumes that pitchers such as Scott Downs and Chad Gaudin go to Syracuse, if they do not then someone else will be dropped down.
On to Jordan's top 30....
Prospect #1, Aaron Hill will move up to play shortstop in AAA after holding his own in AA in 2004
#2, Josh Banks spent half a season at AA; he started slowly at AA but improved as the season moved into August. I would send Banks back to AA to start the season. Remember Banks will still be 22 on opening day, so he is still young for his level
#4, Francisco Rosario improved at the end of the season and was good, in stretches, in the AFL. He is still developing consistency and control so I would send him back to AA for at least a half season.
#5, Shaun Marcum pitched well in Dunedin and will move up to AA
#7, Dustin McGowan should be back and ready to go. I would start him in Dunedin to take advantage of the better weather
#8, Jamie Vermilyea will move to AAA and be in the bullpen there. The Syracuse pen will be crowded but I don't think Vermilyea has anything left to prove at AA
#9, John Hattig will move up to AAA following a full year of AA and a stint in the AFL
#10, David Purcey will make the traditional 1st round pick jump to High A Dunedin
#11, Adam Peterson was traded
#12, Vito Chiaravalloti will move up to AA after a full season at High A
#13, Raul Tablado will move up with Vito. I will keep him at shortstop, even though he might not end up there. Rob Cosby will play third and I will keep Tablado at short for as long as I can
#14, Robinson Diaz will move up to Dunedin
#15, Vince Perkins will pitch in AA after an injury filled season in High A and stints in the instructional league and the AFL
#16, Davis Romero made a mid season move into the rotation at Charleston; he will start in Dunedin in 2005
#17, Ismael Ramirez has been in High A for parts of three seasons, he will jump to AA
#18, Curtis Thigpen will move to A. In previous years Russ Adams and Aaron Hill jumped straight to High A, but Robinson Diaz is there and Thigpen needs to play; unless the Jays want to use a tandem catching rotation at Dunedin
#19, Carlo Cota will move up to play second base in AA after moving ahead of Ryan Roberts on the depth chart in the second half of 2004
#20, Ryan Roberts struggled some after his promotion to High A, I will leave Ryan in Dunedin to play second base.
#21, Miguel Negron will move up to AA
#22, Ron Davenport will also move to AA
#23, Tom Mastny has been traded
#24, John-Ford Griffin will go to AAA where he will patrol left field, Crozier is ahead of him at first base. Another option for the Jays would be to switch Crozier and Griffin between first and left; neither would be above average in left but if either of them can play there it would increase their value
#25, Jason Arnold will return to AAA for another, possibly final, shot
#26, Chi-hung Cheng is still young and will head for extended spring training and then to Auburn
#27, Bubbie Buzachero will get his shot at AA
#28, Adam Lind will make the big jump to high A, he and Thigpen were the leading hitters at Auburn in 2004 but there is outfield room, whereas Diaz is ahead of Thigpen
#29, Yuber Rodriguez will jump from Rookie ball to A
#30, Jordan DeJong will continue up to AAA
We have a couple of extra players:
Zack Jackson who Baseball America listed as the Jays #8 prospect will accompany Purcey to Dunedin
Rob Cosby, who blew out his knee last April, after a fast start at AA, will take up where he left off in AA
DJ Hanson, who missed all of 2004 will start in Dunedin
Here is what we have:
These are the top prospects and by inference the strongest players. The New Hampshire rotation looks pretty good, and the Dunedin rotation is not bad either.
The next step is to fill in the gaps. The biggest question mark as I see it is the pitching roster in AAA. Through placing the top 30 prospects we slotted two starters, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Arnold, and two relievers, Jamie Vermilyea and Jordan DeJong.
To add to these five pitchers we have one player dropping down from the major league pitchers I listed above, it could be Brandon League or Justin Miller. I will say Miller. Then we add hold-overs from 2004: Cameron Reimers; Ryan Glynn; Josue Matos and Mike Smith to give us ten pitchers.
Over the winter the Jays added ten pitchers on waivers or as free agents, namely: Seong Song; Chad Gaudin; Steve Andrade; Scott Downs; Mike Nannini; Adrian Burnside; Spike Lundberg; Matt Whiteside; Pete Walker; and Jesse Carlson to give us twenty candidates. Then we add some AA pitchers who deserve a promotion: Ryan Houston; Dan Jackson and maybe Chris Baker; plus the two pitchers selected in the rule 5 draft, Lee Gronkiewicz; and Milton Tavarez. Now we have 25 pitchers and a log-jam. We have twelve spots in AAA, say six spots in AA (after placing the six top prospects) and I will assume three pitchers on the DL, total 21. Most of the pitchers signed by the Jays have AAA experience and a demotion to AA would not be a happy day.
I will place Ryan Glynn and Cameron Reimers in the starting rotation, they have been starters throughout their careers. I will put Seong Song at the fifth starter position. All other pitchers are bullpen material. Vermilyea and DeJong should be joined by Scott Downs, Spike Lundberg, Pete Walker, Justin Miller and Matt Whiteside.
Other gaps:
At AAA Jason Alfaro, Bryant Nelson and Julius Matos will cover second base and utility infielder. There might not be a spot for Dominic Rich. Anton French will take the CF spot with Anthony Sanders and Chad Mottola signed for DH and backup.
At AA Tim Whittaker or John Schneider will catch. Mikael Jova or Justin Singleton will play RF. Mike Snyder should repeat AA as a backup first baseman and DH.
At Dunedin Clint Johnston and/or Joey Reiman will play first, Juan Peralta short, and Eric Arnold third. David Smith and Christian Snavely will be in the outfield with Jayce Tingler.
The starting rotation at Dunedin is full, so there is no room for Justin James or Danny Core to start. Jordy Templett and Tracey Thorpe would hope to jump up to AA but with the large number of pitchers above them they might not get the chance. Andy Torres, Brian Reed and Chad Pleiness will also return to Dunedin, although Pleiness could be squeezed out.
Lansing will have most of the 2004 draft class, plus Kurt Isenberg and Jermy Acey. The Jays still have a lot of second basemen, Cota at AA; Roberts at High A; and Brian Hall at A. Where does Acey fit into this picture? There is no room for Isenberg in Dunedin so he has another turn in A.
TBD - Hitters: Rich; Acey; Medina
TBD - Pitchers: Nannini; Gaudin; Andrade; Burnside; Matos; Smith; Baker; Walker; Gronkiewicz; Ogiltree; Pleiness; Templett; Tate; Day; Yates; McLaughlin
The Jays do have a lot of arms coming in to spring training, it will be tough for them all to get enough work in the spring and it will be tough for Dick Scott to place them all. Look for some trades or a lot of sore arms at the end of spring training.
In case you missed it the Jays released the following over the winter: Shawn Fagan; Kip Bouknight; Travis Thompson; Willie Rivera; Chris Neylan; James Pidutti; Brad Esaray; Joey Charron; Bryan Gale; and Tim Land.
Comments are welcome.
I will start with some of the September call-ups and then move on to Jordan's list of top 30 prospects.
Russ Adams will be with the Blue Jays
Gabe Gross will be playing in AAA
Guillermo Quiroz will be catching in AAA
Eric Crozier will be manning first base in AAA
Gustavo Chacin will likely be in the Syracuse rotation
Brandon League will probably be in the bullpen in Toronto
We need to understand the bullpen in Toronto. At this writing we have Jason Frasor; Justin Speier; Kerry Ligtenberg; Vinnie Chulk; Justin Miller; Billy Koch; Scott Schoeneweiss; and Brandon League takes us to eight in the pen. At least one of these pitchers will be bumped to AAA. This assumes that pitchers such as Scott Downs and Chad Gaudin go to Syracuse, if they do not then someone else will be dropped down.
On to Jordan's top 30....
Prospect #1, Aaron Hill will move up to play shortstop in AAA after holding his own in AA in 2004
#2, Josh Banks spent half a season at AA; he started slowly at AA but improved as the season moved into August. I would send Banks back to AA to start the season. Remember Banks will still be 22 on opening day, so he is still young for his level
#4, Francisco Rosario improved at the end of the season and was good, in stretches, in the AFL. He is still developing consistency and control so I would send him back to AA for at least a half season.
#5, Shaun Marcum pitched well in Dunedin and will move up to AA
#7, Dustin McGowan should be back and ready to go. I would start him in Dunedin to take advantage of the better weather
#8, Jamie Vermilyea will move to AAA and be in the bullpen there. The Syracuse pen will be crowded but I don't think Vermilyea has anything left to prove at AA
#9, John Hattig will move up to AAA following a full year of AA and a stint in the AFL
#10, David Purcey will make the traditional 1st round pick jump to High A Dunedin
#11, Adam Peterson was traded
#12, Vito Chiaravalloti will move up to AA after a full season at High A
#13, Raul Tablado will move up with Vito. I will keep him at shortstop, even though he might not end up there. Rob Cosby will play third and I will keep Tablado at short for as long as I can
#14, Robinson Diaz will move up to Dunedin
#15, Vince Perkins will pitch in AA after an injury filled season in High A and stints in the instructional league and the AFL
#16, Davis Romero made a mid season move into the rotation at Charleston; he will start in Dunedin in 2005
#17, Ismael Ramirez has been in High A for parts of three seasons, he will jump to AA
#18, Curtis Thigpen will move to A. In previous years Russ Adams and Aaron Hill jumped straight to High A, but Robinson Diaz is there and Thigpen needs to play; unless the Jays want to use a tandem catching rotation at Dunedin
#19, Carlo Cota will move up to play second base in AA after moving ahead of Ryan Roberts on the depth chart in the second half of 2004
#20, Ryan Roberts struggled some after his promotion to High A, I will leave Ryan in Dunedin to play second base.
#21, Miguel Negron will move up to AA
#22, Ron Davenport will also move to AA
#23, Tom Mastny has been traded
#24, John-Ford Griffin will go to AAA where he will patrol left field, Crozier is ahead of him at first base. Another option for the Jays would be to switch Crozier and Griffin between first and left; neither would be above average in left but if either of them can play there it would increase their value
#25, Jason Arnold will return to AAA for another, possibly final, shot
#26, Chi-hung Cheng is still young and will head for extended spring training and then to Auburn
#27, Bubbie Buzachero will get his shot at AA
#28, Adam Lind will make the big jump to high A, he and Thigpen were the leading hitters at Auburn in 2004 but there is outfield room, whereas Diaz is ahead of Thigpen
#29, Yuber Rodriguez will jump from Rookie ball to A
#30, Jordan DeJong will continue up to AAA
We have a couple of extra players:
Zack Jackson who Baseball America listed as the Jays #8 prospect will accompany Purcey to Dunedin
Rob Cosby, who blew out his knee last April, after a fast start at AA, will take up where he left off in AA
DJ Hanson, who missed all of 2004 will start in Dunedin
Here is what we have:
AAA AA High A A
C Quiroz Diaz Thigpen
1B Crozier Chiaravalloti
2B Cota Roberts
SS Hill Tablado
3B Hattig Cosby
LF Griffin Davenport Lind
CF Negron Y. Rodriguez
RF Gross
SP1 Arnold Banks Purcey
SP2 Chacin Marcum McGowan
SP3 Perkins Jackson
SP4 Ramirez Romero
SP5 Rosario Hanson
RP1 Vermilyea Buzachero
RP2 DeJong
These are the top prospects and by inference the strongest players. The New Hampshire rotation looks pretty good, and the Dunedin rotation is not bad either.
The next step is to fill in the gaps. The biggest question mark as I see it is the pitching roster in AAA. Through placing the top 30 prospects we slotted two starters, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Arnold, and two relievers, Jamie Vermilyea and Jordan DeJong.
To add to these five pitchers we have one player dropping down from the major league pitchers I listed above, it could be Brandon League or Justin Miller. I will say Miller. Then we add hold-overs from 2004: Cameron Reimers; Ryan Glynn; Josue Matos and Mike Smith to give us ten pitchers.
Over the winter the Jays added ten pitchers on waivers or as free agents, namely: Seong Song; Chad Gaudin; Steve Andrade; Scott Downs; Mike Nannini; Adrian Burnside; Spike Lundberg; Matt Whiteside; Pete Walker; and Jesse Carlson to give us twenty candidates. Then we add some AA pitchers who deserve a promotion: Ryan Houston; Dan Jackson and maybe Chris Baker; plus the two pitchers selected in the rule 5 draft, Lee Gronkiewicz; and Milton Tavarez. Now we have 25 pitchers and a log-jam. We have twelve spots in AAA, say six spots in AA (after placing the six top prospects) and I will assume three pitchers on the DL, total 21. Most of the pitchers signed by the Jays have AAA experience and a demotion to AA would not be a happy day.
I will place Ryan Glynn and Cameron Reimers in the starting rotation, they have been starters throughout their careers. I will put Seong Song at the fifth starter position. All other pitchers are bullpen material. Vermilyea and DeJong should be joined by Scott Downs, Spike Lundberg, Pete Walker, Justin Miller and Matt Whiteside.
Other gaps:
At AAA Jason Alfaro, Bryant Nelson and Julius Matos will cover second base and utility infielder. There might not be a spot for Dominic Rich. Anton French will take the CF spot with Anthony Sanders and Chad Mottola signed for DH and backup.
At AA Tim Whittaker or John Schneider will catch. Mikael Jova or Justin Singleton will play RF. Mike Snyder should repeat AA as a backup first baseman and DH.
At Dunedin Clint Johnston and/or Joey Reiman will play first, Juan Peralta short, and Eric Arnold third. David Smith and Christian Snavely will be in the outfield with Jayce Tingler.
The starting rotation at Dunedin is full, so there is no room for Justin James or Danny Core to start. Jordy Templett and Tracey Thorpe would hope to jump up to AA but with the large number of pitchers above them they might not get the chance. Andy Torres, Brian Reed and Chad Pleiness will also return to Dunedin, although Pleiness could be squeezed out.
Lansing will have most of the 2004 draft class, plus Kurt Isenberg and Jermy Acey. The Jays still have a lot of second basemen, Cota at AA; Roberts at High A; and Brian Hall at A. Where does Acey fit into this picture? There is no room for Isenberg in Dunedin so he has another turn in A.
AAA AA High A A
C Quiroz Whittaker Diaz Thigpen
1B Crozier Chiaravalloti Johnston Cannon
2B Nelson Cota Roberts Hall
SS Hill Tablado Peralta Klosterman
3B Hattig Cosby Arnold Esposito
LF Griffin Davenport Lind Mathews
CF French Negron Smith Y. Rodriguez
RF Gross Jova Snavely Neilsen
Bench/DH Alfaro Singleton Reiman Mangioni
Matos Snyder Tingler Metropoulus
Sanders Hassey Dragicevich Armstrong
Huckaby
Mottola
SP1 Chacin Banks Purcey MacDonald
SP2 Arnold Marcum McGowan Janssen
SP3 Glynn Perkins Jackson Isenberg
SP4 Reimers Ramirez Romero Perez
SP5 Song Rosario Hanson Leonard
RP1 Vermilyea Buzachero Reed Hill
RP2 Whiteside Houston James Rico
RP3 DeJong Jackson Core Harper
RP4 Lundberg Carlson Thorpe Mumma
RP5 Downs Tavarez Torres McKenzie
RP6 Miller
RP7 Walker
TBD - Hitters: Rich; Acey; Medina
TBD - Pitchers: Nannini; Gaudin; Andrade; Burnside; Matos; Smith; Baker; Walker; Gronkiewicz; Ogiltree; Pleiness; Templett; Tate; Day; Yates; McLaughlin
The Jays do have a lot of arms coming in to spring training, it will be tough for them all to get enough work in the spring and it will be tough for Dick Scott to place them all. Look for some trades or a lot of sore arms at the end of spring training.
In case you missed it the Jays released the following over the winter: Shawn Fagan; Kip Bouknight; Travis Thompson; Willie Rivera; Chris Neylan; James Pidutti; Brad Esaray; Joey Charron; Bryan Gale; and Tim Land.
Comments are welcome.