Anyone have a breakdown of the contract?? any extension??

Also I put this in the previous thread earlier today...

#274332 Posted 01/12/2005 02:50 PM by Daryn:

Not looking at the actual positions but just the 25 Man roster plus those likely to see MLB time, from the Beginning of last year till now...

Out:
Delgado, Phelps, Cash, Woodward, Gomez, Berg, Clark, Hentgen, T.Adams, Kerschener, de Los Santos,

In:
Koskie, Hillenbrand, Quiroz, Adams, MacDonald, Rios, Bush, Koch, Miller, Schoeneweis (18pts plus a bonus for using all your letters), Chulk and Miller.

Also reserves
Out - Lopez, Nakamura, Douglass, Peterson, and Pond
In - Chacin, League, Rosario and McGowan and Crozier

I'd have to say that its not a bad improvement...
some if it is "natural" progressions and some of it is deals.. but at least we are not stuck with the same old lot as 365 days ago...

Repost from a previous thread:
Hillenbrand should not be batting in the middle of the order, because the DPs are going to kill the offence.

Good point. So where do you hit him then? #2? #6/7? It seems like a big waste to put a guy with a .300 avg in the 8 or 9 spot.

I dont know if it's worth noting or not but Im going to anyway. Last year was the best offensive year of his career to date and he hit mostly #4 with a little #3 time as well. However in speaking to a couple D-Back fans they were of the perception that he was a notorious rally killer last year. What all this says I dont know.

Well (sigh), welcome to Toronto, Mr. Hillenbrand, and best of luck to you.

Do I expect the Jays to be more than a .500 team next season? No.

I do. I think I can hope for 83 wins without being unreasonably optimistic.

The thing I don't like is that it looks like it's going to be a holding-pattern kind of year, and I was hoping to see progress. That's all I want. I want to see progress.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20050112&content_id=930335&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
COMN for MLB article/press release. J.P. will be on the FAN; anyone can listen here. They just went to commercial, he'll be on soon.

Well (sigh), welcome to Toronto, Mr. Hillenbrand, and best of luck to you.

The exact sentence I was about to type.

Well, I'll reiterate what I said in an earlier thread. Shea's around the age, and progression, where one can hope for a career year. And if we're not contending ... hey, there's always the deadline. If Terry Adams can be John Hattig ...

I still don't know who will play left field next year. Koskie, Hinske, Hillenbrand take up 3B/1B/DH, so Cat looks to be the favourite. But he can't play every day, Reed Johnson is still in the mix, and let's not forget an outfielder who put up .294/.381/.454 last year in Syracuse.

When Gross is ready, what's going to happen? Cat's contract is too big to let him sit for any prolonged period of time. I would rather have kept Cat at DH, put Gross in left, and called it a day.

P.S. I've been keeping a copy of Gwyn's spreadsheet current.. and with Gwyn's permission will send a copy to anyone that wants it...

I've got 40 men on the roster, most of the likely triple A players listed and about $49.6 Mil in Salary. (Hillenbrand's salary not confirmed)

COMN and I'll email it to you...

I have been such a big JP booster over the years, but now I have serious doubts. In the past I understood the logic behind his moves and I rationalized failure in a variety of ways, such as injuries or bad luck. Now, I don't understand what he's doing, so I want to see results. If they don't come, I will be extremely unimpressed.

JP is also on Sportsnet for those with TV access.

J.P. is talking about what a train wreck the market was. He says they offered $7.5 million to Clement.

He says plan A was just Koskie and Clement.

If I'm predicting batting order, a reasonable guess might be:

vs RH
SS Adams
2B Hudson
CF Wells
3B Koskie
DH Hillenbrand
LF Catalanotto
1B Hinske
RF Rios
C Zaun

vs LH
LF Johnson
2B Hudson
CF Wells
DH Hillenbrand
RF Rios
3B Koskie
SS Menechino
1B Hinske
C Zaun

The key to any kind of robust batting order next year will be a Hinske resurgence and a major Rios step forward. Without those two, it could be a long season.

JP with Bob McCown and Stephen Brunt.

- Hillenbrand main DH, Hinske main 1B
- Thinks Hinske will put 20 "balls in the seats" (has anyone ever heard him say "homeruns?")
- He says market was bad, wanted Clement and Koskie, one didn't work out
- Likes Hillenbrand's RH bat

A hockey question? Honestly, Bob. Now we're talking about Omar Minaya, so I'll break for a bit and post what little I've heard so far.

That's IT? Well, thanks for the eight minutes, Prime Time.

That was short.

He said that they wanted Hinske to be fielding as well if he's only going to hit .240 so that they're still getting something out of him.

He said that they wanted Hinske to be fielding as well if he's only going to hit .240 so that they're still getting something out of him.

Which, as far as I'm concerned, is not the good reason to make the move. The way I look at it is this: if both guys are going to be in the lineup, you put the one with the lesser glove at DH. Which one's that? I dunno, but I'll entertain the idea that Hinske's better.

He said that they wanted Hinske to be fielding as well if he's only going to hit .240 so that they're still getting something out of him.

Yeah that sounded a little ridiculous to me. I mean if Shea is a better fielder than Hinske (and I dont know that he is) then shouldnt he be out there regardless? Unless the idea is to keep Hinske's value up. Actually that kind of makes sense now that I think of it. Assuming that they're roughly comparable as fielders, and assuming that playing DH regularly is going to lower a guy's value, it makes sense that Hillenbrand is the guy you'd want to lower of the two.

The key to any kind of robust batting order next year will be a Hinske resurgence and a major Rios step forward. Without those two, it could be a long season.

How many career years, on the offensive side, do you think it will take for the Jays to be .500?

I'm guessing atleast 5.

Well (sigh), welcome to Toronto, Mr. Hillenbrand, and best of luck to you.

I'll third that.

He said that they wanted Hinske to be fielding as well if he's only going to hit .240 so that they're still getting something out of him.

I can only assume that JP said that because he didn't want to come right out and say that his shiny new acquisition is most likely a worse defensive 1st baseman than his beleagured converted 3rd baseman. The alternatives are all painful.

I have trouble determining whether a GM is doing a good job or not because so much of what a GM does is hidden from the public. We can't tell if J.P. chose the best of his available alternatives because we don't know what they are.

If I were in J.P.'s shoes, I would have tried harder to sign Delgado, but it would have been difficult to land him. Carlos, understandably enough, would want to find out what the market rate was for him - and most of his potential suitors were waiting to see where Beltran was going to end up, so most of the serious offers started coming in well past the Jays' negotiation deadline. And the bidding war, if there is going to be one, probably hasn't happened yet - and there's no way Delgado is going to sign until he sees whether such a bidding war will take place now that Beltran is gone. (With 20-20 hindsight, it looks like offering him arbitration would have been an acceptable risk, as he'll probably land at least a $50 million/4 year contract.)

Without Delgado, who else is there for J.P. to sign? Richie Sexson cost $50 million, and isn't as good as Delgado. I don't like Hillenbrand much, but he (a) doesn't cost a lot, (b) can do some things, and (c) provides insurance in case Koskie gets hurt or Hinske keeps spiralling into mediocrity.

As for the Jays in general: their situation is the same as it was one year ago. They will become a contending team if - and only if - the farm system produces star players. While developing quality prospects requires good scouting and player development, you also need a bit of luck - and luck is something the Jays have lacked the last few years.

I don't see the Jays finishing much over .500, but there may be still a possibility that things may get better, even if that possibility seems more remote than it did two years ago. Here are some rays of sunshine for you (and we desperately need them in these parts right now, given our current weather):

- The Yankees are going to crash and burn. Mark my words. Had they signed Beltran - and they could easily have afforded him - they could have stayed on top. But they've signed a flotilla of pitchers either aging rapidly or coming off career years. To me, Pavano and Wright are likely to follow Jeff Weaver's career path in New York - splat. They're weak up the middle defensively, their core players are aging if not downright geriatric, and there's no farm system to speak of. And the Mets are now trying to compete in the auxiliary revenue marketplace that the Yanks have monopolized these last few years.

- Boston's major off-season acquisitions are Matt Clement and David Wells. They've lost Pedro, and Schilling isn't going to start the season. I rate them as the favourites, but they're at the very peak of their success cycle too - and, while they have lots of money to play with, they don't have the Steinbrenner Bottomless Pit O' Cash to draw on.

- If you think the Jays have had a bad off-season, what about Baltimore? They've signed Steve Kline - and that's it, despite having more money than they know what to do with. Kline's a good pitcher, but he averages 60 innings a year. They could still land Delgado, but he's probably smart enough to realize that the Orioles aren't going anywhere.

- Tampa Bay's offseason acquisitions have been Alex Gonzalez and Josh Phelps. You're not going to finish ahead of the Blue Jays if you are collecting Blue Jay castoffs.

- The Jays just landed a serviceable (if mediocre) hitter in a trade for one of their second-tier pitching prospects. Just think what some of their good prospects could fetch a year or two down the road if the Jays need to fill a hole then! (And they may need to trade some of their arms if their 40-man roster starts to fill up.)

So there you go - it's not all that bad, is it? :-)

Hillenrand is not as good a fielder as Hinske. At first base, Hinske has the potential to be a gold glover, since the one thing he can't do well on defence is throw. Even at third, I'd take the more agile Hinske over Shea.

Is paying 4 million plus in arbitration (you just know it's going to be at least that much) to a guy worth half that the best trade JP could have made in this market? That's hard for me to believe, since there are still teams that are in theory looking to cut payroll.

It seems more likely to me that the Jays are overvaluing the offensive talents of Hillenbrand which leads me to believe they don't have an adequate grasp of how to put together a team that can score a lot of runs.

Hillenbrand=mediocre

Wow, there is a lot of doom and gloom here

How many career years, on the offensive side, do you think it will take for the Jays to be .500?

I'm guessing at least 5.

Zero are required, unless you count "thus-far career seasons" which, by definition, Adams and Rios will have. Hinske and Wells need healthy bounce-back seasons, and Hudson and Koskie need to stay healthy enough to play 140 games.

If the above happens, and Doc pitches the entire season, that's a .500 club. They won't need anyone to blast through their 90th-percentile PECOTA to get there; if it happens, so much, the better.

there are still teams that are in theory looking to cut payroll

What teams are still looking to cut payroll these days? You're more knowledgeable about this than I am, but I'm thinking that most of the real cheapskates have either upgraded their ownership groups or have already divested themselves of their most expensive salary boat anchors.

Doom and gloom is right...I hate to think what this site'll be like if the jays repeat in 5th...

Well...umm... this makes the Cat signing look better. If Shea is worth ~$4 million and Adam Peterson, then Cat's worth $2.7 million right?

Doom and gloom is right - but really - what do you say when 20% of your budget for '05 is tied up in Hinske and Hillenbrand?

Pittsburgh, Arizona, Washington, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta, Colorado, Cincinnati, White Sox, Houston.

Depending on who wants to take a run at the remaining big free agents, and who wants to sign multi-year deals with their young stars, I'd imagine that at least a few of these teams might be willing to trade surplus talent for prospects.

It seems more likely to me that the Jays are overvaluing the offensive talents of Hillenbrand which leads me to believe they don't have an adequate grasp of how to put together a team that can score a lot of runs.

Where's the overvaluing here? He cost all of Adam Peterson, who is possibly the most replaceable-from-within prospect in the entire organization.

The Jays cannot afford (or will not pony up for) home runs in the free-agent market, and don't want to move any of their best pitching for home runs on the trading block. So they had to go get doubles instead.

There was one reasonably-priced home run bat available by trade -- Carlos Lee. And say what you will about how the White Sox were silly to overvalue a 70-steal man and a big league power arm, but it's what they wanted, and the Jays didn't have either to give them. The Sox lost their trade with Milwaukee, but wouldn't have "won" had they gotten Hinske and Batista back in return, either.

The money owed Hillenbrand is simply and utterly no object to the Jays, since there's no commitment beyond this season. You know, it's like the Jays are the last guy with money at a roto auction. If the last guy has $7 left to spend, he'll take the best player left on the board. Nobody ridicules him for spending $7 on a $2 player under those circumstances.

Why let spending money evaporate? He'll hit better than Eric Crozier, and he'll hit better than Gabe Gross, and Adam Peterson is too old for AA and not yet good enough for AAA. Under the uniquely frustrating circumstances of this offseason, that's reason enough to do the deal.

I'll say it again: Shea Hillenbrand = Mark Bellhorn, with singles and groundouts in lieu of walks and strikeouts. Bellhorn was, certainly, the ninth-best of the Bosox nine. But that was a phenomenal lineup.

Ryan 01 - your point about Cat is an interesting one. His contract as a good one rests in his offense and ability to stay healthy. All of which made him the logical DH. Frankly (pardon the pun), he's less valuable as the everday LF because his defense is poor and the increased likelihood of injury. All of which makes the Shea signing more confusing. It speaks of spending money for the sake of spending it without any plan at all.

I'll add the Mets to that list. They might be looking to get rid of Cliff Floyd now that they have Beltran. Floyd, though costing more, is the type of impact bat the Jays need. He's perfect for the AL, a DH now due to age and health problems.

It's not often I disagree with Mike D., but I'd take Bellhorn over Hillenbrand in an instant. Stick Bellhorn second in any lineup, and that lineup is going to generate runs. Given that Bellhorn can also play a middle infield position, it's a pretty easy choice.

Mike D,

If he makes 4 to 5 million and is worth 2 million or less, wouldn't that mean he is overvalued. The fact that they gave away nothing to get him doesn't make him less overvalued.

Interesting note from the J.P. interview: when asked if this finished up the Jays offseason, J.P. talked about something else and didn't answer that question.

Zero are required, unless you count "thus-far career seasons" which, by definition, Adams and Rios will have

I agree. There is more depth to compensate for injuries and slumps than they have had for a long time. Myers was the number 5 hitter two years ago and has a good left handed bat. Gross should be ready by midseason. Hopefully Hattig and Crozier will be too.

I think Adams will be key. He is going to make a lot of throwing errors in the first half and is going to have to keep his confidence up offensively.

If things go all right (okay maybe perfectly) by the end of the season the Jays could have an infield of Hudson, Koskie, Adams (with Hill in the wings), and outfield of Gross, Wells, Rios, and GQ at catcher. Sounds like fun to me.

Robert: are you determining Hillenbrand's worth based on signings from this offseason? What are you using to determine that he is worth under $2 million?

Not disputing, just curious.

Doom and gloom is right - but really - what do you say when 20% of your budget for '05 is tied up in Hinske and Hillenbrand?


Yeah, well, give thanks an your're not expos/nationals fan with your team's location up in the air...not to mention Guzman and Castilla's contracts on your hands...

I have to say I don't mind the line-up as it currently stands and given that I thought JP had no chance to sign any mid-to-upper tier free agents (including Delgado), the Koskie signing is a plus.

As far as this team's win/loss record, I have got no clue. There are so many variables this year, I wouldn't be surprised with wins in the high 80s/low nineties or on the flip side losses that approach 100. Who knows how the the new carpet will impact the offence/defence of the Jays? Or if we get the Russ Adams of Sept or the one in AAA? Or if Brandon League is the real deal? What is the presence of having Koskie in the clubhouse? Or having Wells and Halladay lead and not Delgado? What will Rios do? Does Hinske bounceback? And, not to mention a new manager in John Gibbons. Maybe Brad Arnsberg is the second coming of Rick Peterson. Who knows? Given how far off everybody was last year on this site, I am thinking nobody.

At the end of the day, this will be a much better season to watch the Jays for one simple reason--the only way it could be any worse is if the roof caves in, literally.

Is paying 4 million plus in arbitration (you just know it's going to be at least that much) to a guy worth half that the best trade JP could have made in this market?

I certainly don't think so, and I agree with basically everything you said. I really don't want Hillenbrand to make four million this year. Couldn't Phelps have been kept for less than that? Hillenbrand made 2.6 last year, and I think he has four years of service time (134+ games, 4 years in a row). So 2005 and 2006 will both be arb-eligible...I doubt Hillenbrand will be in T.O. in 2006, though.

Trading Peterson for Hillenbrand and giving Schoeneweis five million dollars back-to-back have not made me happy at all. Actually, I don't think I've been this unhappy with two consecutive trades/signings in a long time. Although, Peterson will be 26 a month into the season, and it's not like the Jays are hurting for relief prospects.

I still think the team was better off with Gross in left, Cat at DH, and Hinske playing first base. Now it's an injury-prone left fielder, an overpaid designated hitter, and a MLB-ready hitter in a AAA uniform.

I think (hopefully) healthy years from Halladay and Wells will help more than people think.

Bellhorn played second base, so he's far more valuable than Hillenbrand.

I contend that the Jays could have acquired a better player in trade, one that could produce at least as much as he is worth, without giving up more than surplus prospects. Billy Beane's been doing it for years, and that's the standard we should hold JP to.

Let's put it this way - Arizona just made a very similar trade to the one JP made when he traded Alex Gonzalez to the Cubs, except that Gonzo had a couple of more years left on his deal. Arizona traded a player who was worth half his salary for nothing. Most of us applauded when Gonzo was traded and we didn't care that we got next to nothing back.

Similarly, D-back fans should be doing cartwheels over this deal. That makes is 2 good moves, 1 neutral and 3 bonehead moves for Arizona this off-season.

What better options were there? JP just missed on a couple of guys, and had to go with the best of the rest. Certainly that sucks, but there is nothing to be done about it. Last years performance put us down the list of FA destinations. When the Yankees, redsox and mets are willing to spend 10m on each positions, and every starter, then we start having less options to choose from. The best thing we can hope for is our cheap pitching: lilly and batista have good seasons, and can net us some top of the line prospects/rookies young cheap talent. If this coincides with bush, chacin, league and a few other young guys taking a step forward, then we can field a good team for the next few years. Everyone we have is very tradeable with their current contracts(with the exception of eric). While certainly this new market for pitchers has hurt the jays this offseason, but may help them before the trade deadline.

I don't want to be persnickety, but I'm going to point out that we've had this conversation way more than once in the last week:

PERSON 1: It's the best the market had to offer.
PERSON 2: No it's not.
PERSON 1: Okay, so name some better options.
PERSON 2: Cliff Floyd.

...and then it ends. Come on, someone can come up with a better option than Cliff Floyd, right? Or is he the only guy out there? Robert made a list of teams but didn't mention anyone on them that the Jays have a shot at (other than Cliff Floyd). Give clueless NFH some names to think about!

Mike Cameron now suddenly wants a trade, but doesn't want to play right.

I'm guessing the Jays are out of the picture right? Center and Right are occupied.

Arizona traded a player who was worth half his salary for nothing. Most of us applauded when Gonzo was traded and we didn't care that we got next to nothing back.

Unless I wasn't paying attention properly, weren't we excited this offseason because the Jays had some extra money and could afford to take on a contract that someone else was looking to ditch? By definition, that's overpaying.

I see a big improvement across the board. The pennant race starts in April and it's gonna be a nail biter every day. Hillenbrand will be hot against the Red Sox whose pitching will flop like flabby David Wells and the newly supersized Schilling. These are old men like the Yankees. I see Hudson and Rios batting .300 and Wells slugging .500.
Rotate the other guys depending on leftie rightie combos and who's hot and who's not and allow the cream of the outstanding pitching
depth to rise to the top and all of a sudden the bull pen starts to look as good as 1992's. This is a championship team. Go Jays go.

Mike Cameron now suddenly wants a trade, but doesn't want to play right.

It would not be fair if the Yankees wound up with Cameron. They have not addressed their CF situation and it wouldn't be right to fluke into a cheap, gold glover who suddenly wants out. That said, not sure what they could send across town to make it worthwhile.

Back to Hillenbrand... There appears to be some debate over his defensive ability over at Primer.

...and then it ends. Come on, someone can come up with a better option than Cliff Floyd, right? Or is he the only guy out there? Robert made a list of teams but didn't mention anyone on them that the Jays have a shot at (other than Cliff Floyd). Give clueless NFH some names to think about!

Since it was a righthanded bat they were after, Floyd does not qualify. Let's try to compare apples to apples, shall we?

1. Craig Wilson.

He's into his first year of arbitration (I think) so he might get too expensive for the cost conscious Pirates.

2. Mike Cameron.

Great defensive CF, but a little pricy at 7MM per for the next 2 seasons. That and we already have a pretty decent CF.

3. Mike Piazza.

30 MM left on his contract, so major money would have to be sent along to make him affordable. He's been trending down for 3 or 4 seasons, but he might have a few good seasons left in him as a DH.

Bellhorn played second base

Right. And he played it horribly.

without giving up more than surplus prospects. Billy Beane's been doing it for years

Beane doesn't flip "surplus prospects." He trades damned fine players, but he gets players who fit his system and his budget even better in return. His advantage, which the Jays can't match, is a brilliant farm system that can replace position players and pitchers with big-league-ready rookies. It's not like he trades Dave Berg and Josh Phelps. He trades Mark Mulder and Ramon Hernandez.

If he makes 4 to 5 million and is worth 2 million or less, wouldn't that mean he is overvalued

My limited point here is only that it doesn't matter how much you pay Shea -- all that matters is whether he's an upgrade over the in-house options. Which he is. There is nowhere else for that money to go except back into Ted's pockets. And not into those of cool Teds, like Lilly or Reynolds.

Austin Kearns. Brad Wilkerson. Nick Johnson. These guys, and others, have been discussed here in the past. There's probably a dozen or so interesting players, all of whom are better than Shea Hillenbrand, all of whom the Jays could afford to acquire in trade (until this week's signings that is), that COULD, IN THEORY been the target of serious trade talks.

We'll never know who was and was not a realistic target for the Jays, as I doubt JP is going to make a full list of the players he talked about with other teams and what the asking price was.

But I maintain that if we hold our GM to the gold standard of GM'ing, the acquisitions of Hillenbrand and Schoeneweis represents significant underachievement if not outright failure.

Even if the free agnet market was overpriced and no one but Koskie wanted to come to Toronto for reasonable money, there are always trades that can be made. Billy Beane has made 3 major trades this off-season; every off-season he makes interesting trades, most of which are based on solid logic.

Well, it took JP acquiring Hillenbrand for Robert and I to agree on something...I'll take that as a positive from this off-season...

:>

Didn't they want Rios for Nick Johnson?

Since it was a righthanded bat they were after, Floyd does not qualify. Let's try to compare apples to apples, shall we?

This is another red herring, or else further reason to doubt the effectiveness of the Jays' plan for the off-season. Who cares if a guy hits left or right, his hitting ability is what matters. You can't have TOO MANY lefthanded hitters if two of the cornerstones of your franchise (Wells and Rios) hit right, and another is a switch hitter (Hudson). Plus Zaun switch-hits and Sparky can hit lefties.

This "we're targeting a righthanded hitter because we have too many lefties" was either a con job or the dumbest thing I've heard this off-season. It amounts to cutting off almost half of your trade possibilities before you start.

It would not be fair if the Yankees wound up with Cameron. They have not addressed their CF situation and it wouldn't be right to fluke into a cheap, gold glover who suddenly wants out. That said, not sure what they could send across town to make it worthwhile.

One Hundred Billion Dollars!

My limited point here is only that it doesn't matter how much you pay Shea -- all that matters is whether he's an upgrade over the in-house options. Which he is.

Not necessarily. In 2003, he was an out machine. He posted a .314 OB%. That's absurd. If he does that again, he'll be a liability at DH. At 3B, with decent defense, he'd be acceptable. But for a guy whose only job is to hit to have a .322 career OB%- that's not good. If you're gonna have a DH, he'd better be significantly above league average in not making outs. And Hillenbrand wasn't last year, in his best season.

Do you seriously think Shea is better than Hinske? Not when you factor in defence. What it means is that instead of DHing Cat, you're going to sling him out to leftfield so that the risk of injury increases and his defence is a liability.

There is no reason to overpay a guy like Shea when you have a first baseman and a DH who are just as good (Hinske and Cat). If you have surplus money you should try to get a guy who can actually hit, like Wilkerson, Kearns or Floyd.

I have to disagree with Gitz here: I'm not a big fan of Bellhorn. I like Hillenbrand over Bellhorn. Mind you, Bellhorn came up big for the BoSox in the end of the playoffs, but he strikes out WAY WAY too much (177 K's in 523 AB last year).

I think Hillenbrand, as much as he goes against the mold of Moneyball and high walk %, fits in much better then a 'Bellhorn' counterpart for the Blue Jays. In the Red Sox lineup I thought Bellhorn was effective, especially after Johnny Damon, as an #2 hitter. Looking at Johnny Damon's career numbers, his walk totals have been climbing every year (going from a strictly contact hitter to a higher OBA year after year). But I still see Johnny Damon as a higher effective contact hitter (and a first pitch swinger), and having a guy right behind him who draws a crapload of walks (like Bellhorn), is a nice counterbalance. It's not too much of one thing.

I think the opposite effect is what JP is trying to do with Hillenbrand (or he has just run out of options and this is really the only one) with the Blue Jays. Stick him right in the middle of that order somewhere #5 or #6 between Koskie and Myers/Hinske and I think it's more of a challenge for pitchers to adapt. They can't throw that first pitch strike down the tube to Hillenbrand, cuz he will definitely offer at it (unlike the guys before and after him who like to really work the count deep and would pass on it). I think Vernon Wells success in 2003 had a lot to do with where he was squeezed in the lineup (between #2 and #4). Usually #2 would be Cat or Hinske (I believe) and of course Carlos at #4. Vernon does not draw a lot of walks, comparible to Hillenbrand, he fit in well in this scenario. I think if we use Hillenbrand the same way (fit him in between 2 high walk candidates), he will have much more success (and we'll get the most out of him). Similarly, we use Vernon at his #3 position and put Cat #2 and Koskie #4, then put Hillenbrand #5, and Myers/Hinske/other LHB, I think it will be most effective for the Blue Jays. That also gives us L-R-L-R-L sequence, which is a good one to follow.

I think, in the very least, Hillenbrand will have a chance to put up some good numbers and possibly draw trade value at mid-season. Getting a Bellhorn would not do much good for the 2005 Blue Jays. We don't have Ortiz and Manny Ramirez following us in the order to drive us in. We have a player 'like' Bellhorn already (Hinske), who strikes out more then he should. I don't think more of the same will help our cause. I like the mix that he brings to the Jays, and it seems like it was the best option left in our budget.

-Danny

Answer: Austin Kearns. Brad Wilkerson. Nick Johnson.

Question: Who are three guys you aren't getting for Adam Peterson?

Will JP do a multi-year deal with Shea, or just go through arbitration? The positive spin on this deal is that (I've been convinced) Peterson isn't really worth that much, and there's no long commitment as of right now. If JP ties him up for two or three years to avoid arbitration...ugh.

That also gives us L-R-L-R-L sequence, which is a good one to follow.

Ugh. Hire Art Howe or Ken Macha as your manager, and you're set!

Stick me in the "I can't believe that Robert Dudek and I are on the same page" camp, but I'm still in favor of Bellhorn.

I would be pleased but shocked if the Yankees acquired Cameron. First of all, for who? Second, it's not like they're buddy-buddy trading partners. In the long, rich, shared 42-year history of the Apple franchises, do you know how many trades they've made with each other? Seven. And it's not like any of them were earth-shaking; in fact, it took 15 years before they'd even make a minor deal between them. I apologize for using the Tanana-word on Da Box again; only one trade helped both teams ("Grand Slam Single" Ventura for Justice) and most helped neither. They've never made two trades any closer than 15 months apart and never in the same off-season or even in back-to-back offseasons, and they've filled their '04 quota already.

Dec. 9, 1977: Mets trade INF Roy Staiger to Yankees' Class AAA Tacoma team for INF Sergio Ferrer, who is assigned to Tidewater.

April 18, 1983: Mets trade P Steve Ray and INF Felix Perdomo to Yankees' Class AAA Columbus team for INF Tucker Ashford.

Dec. 11, 1987: Mets trade INF Rafael Santana and P Victor Garcia to Yankees for C Phil Lombardi, OF Darren Reed and P Steve Frey.

June 9, 1992: Mets trade P Tim Burke and cash to Yankees for P Lee Guetterman.

Sept. 17, 1993: Mets trade P Frank Tanana to Yankees for P Kenny Greer.

Dec. 7, 2001: Mets trade 3B Robin Ventura to Yankees for OF David Justice.

Dec, 3, 2004: Mets trade EP Mike Stanton to Yankees for RP Felix Heredia.

Getting a Bellhorn would not do much good for the 2005 Blue Jays. We don't have Ortiz and Manny Ramirez following us in the order to drive us in. We have a player 'like' Bellhorn already (Hinske), who strikes out more then he should.

A strikeout is only bad if it is refelected in a hitter's other stats!!! Bellhorn is a much better player than Hillenbrand.

Duh, of course you're going to offer a good package of talent to get a good player. My point is that all of those players are actually GOOD, and are the type of players you want to acquire to build a championship team. Use the fact that you've got surplus money to get a really good player, even if you have to give up a few prospects (isn't that supposed to be the Blue Jays's strength?).

Why do you think we got Hillenbrand for Peterson? Because his salary makes him a negative asset. Seriously, offering a multi-year, front-loaded deal to Orlando Hudson would have been a better idea than paying Shea 4 to 5 million dollars and possibly close to 6 million next year in arbitration.

I would be pleased but shocked if the Yankees acquired Cameron.

Yeah, I would be too. Word on the street is that neither team is a big fan of the other's. ;)

I just thought of the obvious best fit for Cameron. I suppose there are other teams also in need of a CF. Arizona. SF, but Sabean has probably spent his allowance. Is LA going with Bradley?

Robert,

I agree with you 100%, I was just trying to be funny about the trade because this is a miserable day.

I think a good part of the disconnect is that 'round here the Jays system is much more highly thought of then it is around baseball. While following the minor leagues day in and day out is a pleasure, it causes many (IMO) to inflate the value/overrate some of the players.

My biggest fear is that with the 8-10 legitimate pitching prospects the Blue Jays do have is that JP isn't able to identify the ones to keep and their greatest successes will be elsewhere.

I agree with Robert here and second Matthew E's reaction. There are plenty of other names out there that could have targetted in trade that would have a) probably not cost a prospect like Adam Peterson and b) that could likely have provided production close to Hillenbrand's at a fraction of the cost.

Dan S. mentions it over at BTF, but why not try to trade for Val Pascucci of the Nationals who Jim Bowden appears to have no use for? He hit .298/.423/.577 for Edmonton last year and Prospectus has hit with a .268 MjEQA. The average may not be as high as Hillenbrand's, but I bet the OBP would be close to equal, in addition to the slugging. Rob & Rany had a piece where they discussed how there appeared to be no spot for Cal Pickering on the 2005 Royals, so why not try to acquire him from Baird?

Maybe JP tried these options already and both Bowden and Baird asked outrageous prices for these players, but I doubt it. Plus, there's plenty of other players out there like this, not to mentions names discussed above like Craig Wilson and Floyd. Hillenbrand's a "proven commodity" and is a "former All-Star" but it's a mistake to spend $4 million on him. In fact, I'm close to convinced this is a bigger mistake than the Schoeneweis signing.

Not a lot of love for Hillenbrand. I've been watching that over the last few days and I agree he's no savior, but in my opinion he's a pretty good hitter, certainly better than the "mediocre" which Robert labels him.

Taking away his rookie year (he apparently hated getting on base), which is probably OK to do, he's a .295 career hitter. His OBP is .331 and SLG of .463, a pretty good line.

Is Frankie C a "mediocre" player? I certainly don't think so. Here's his career line... .296/.358/.457. Remarkably similar. Cat gets on base .027 more which is nice obviously. Cat's a darn good hitter, and in my opinion, the Jays picked up another darn good hitter today too.

While following the minor leagues day in and day out is a pleasure, it causes many (IMO) to inflate the value/overrate some of the players.

Excellent point, Jim. All teams are guilty of this to some degree, in much the same way parents tend to inflate their children's abilities. Scarcity of talent exists in baseball and in real life, and there's simply no way all these teams could have as many legit prospects as they make it appear, nor is it possible that all these parents are producing the next Mozart.

I for one think the farm system is very healthy and among the best in baseball.

There is a type of deal that JP has proven he's good at: the salary dump. He might be the best in the business at it. Now that he's gotten rid of all the bad contracts the Ash regime was responsible for, he doesn't need to make this kind of trade anymore.

Now the focus has to be on acquiring the missing pieces to a future Blue Jays playoff team. To do this, J.P. has to acquire players whose value exceeds their cost (both in trade and in salary terms).

This off-season was the first time JP had the financial flexibility to do this, and he's O for 1 so far. Let's hope he get a hit soon.

My understanding on Pickering is that he's going to be expensive for whoever wants him, like Howard.

Yeah, I was not making a specific comment about the Jays farm system, which is better off than most, but rather a generalisation.

Cat is a good hitter - a better hitter than Shea, no doubt. But Cat is in his decline phase and is a liability in the outfield. He should DH. So why acquire a player who is slightly worse than Cat, about the same age, costs more, and who will end up DHing on this team more than he'll play any other position? Why? I can't fathom any reason to do this, especially as it will force Cat to the outfield and weaken the defence.

Why do this? Please someone explain this to me. The only explanation I can think of is that the Jays think Shea is a better hitter than he actually is. That's all I can come up with - please help me out here and give me an alternative explanation.

The only possible reasonable idea I have left is that somehow the Jays are ready to flip Hillenbrand to another team.

The only possible reasonable idea I have left is that somehow the Jays are ready to flip Hillenbrand to another team.

Or Hinske.

The only possible reasonable idea I have left is that somehow the Jays are ready to flip Hillenbrand to another team.

Or Hinske?

I guess I owe BCMike a beer.

'I for one think the farm system is very healthy and among the best in baseball'

Yeah, this is sort of what I mean. There is a grand total of 3 big time position player prospects in the entire organization. Hill, Quiroz and Adams. I'm not considering Gross/Rios as part of the minor league system for this exercise. I like Thigpen and Lind but it takes more then 200 or so at-bats in the NYPL before you are a legitimate prospect.

What does among the best mean? Top 5? Top 10?

This is a middle of the road organization talent wise in the minor leagues which could end up looking better in a few years if some of the many pitchers pan out (Purcey, McGowan, Banks, Jackson) or it could end up much worse if Quiroz fails to develop and those arms fall by the wayside.

Cat is only 1 yr older than Shea. Why does the hitter have to be better than Cat to be acquired? The Jays don't have a DH...Hillenbrand, while he's not gonna hit 40 HR's like a typical DH, is a good hitter, and is therefore a good candidate.

A team full of Hillenbrands will be better than a team full of Croziers or whomever else the Jays were going with at DH. Yes, 4M is a tad high, but if he hits .310 again and get get plunked/walk ~50 times (not unlikely, it was 36 last year) giving him a decent OBP and add 20 HR's I think we'll all be pleased.

But Cat is in his decline phase and is a liability in the outfield. He should DH...Please someone explain this to me

Reed Johnson is simply not an everyday corner outfielder. Cat is no great defender, but he is not a big liability either in my view (no stats to support this). A Reed / Cat leftfield platoon should be a reasonably productive and cheap option. I am no great Hillenbrand fan, but he is a decent major league hitter, and certainly better than any of the other alternatives which the club has at the moment. Yes, maybe JP could have gotten someone who gets on base more and has more power, but at what cost?

- Johnson is injury-prone and would have cost Rios.
- Kearns isn't necessarily available and would have cost a lot more than Adam Peterson; who would you give up for him? Hill and Rosario? I wouldn't, but the Reds would want a package like that.
- Wilkerson would probably cost the same.

Hillenbrand is clearly a case of JP settling (and I'm sure privately that's how he feels).

Hill, Quiroz and Adams. I'm not considering Gross/Rios as part of the minor league system for this exercise.

May I ask why? Why is Adams a prospect but not Gross? Especially considering that Adams is expected to break spring training with a roster spot while Gross is not.

I agree with Dr. Zarco, I think "mediocre" is harsh. If we had a homegrown 310 hitter who got 80 RBI's we'd be singing his praises and overlooking the odd flaw.

My experience with Hillenbrand isn't great, but I do remember a few years ago when he came to TO with Boston there were at least a couple of occasions when he got a clutch hit and I thought "There's that darn Shea Hillenbrand, getting another clutch hit again."

There are plenty of times in 2005 he'll make us happy. Chill out.

Gross had 129 at-bats. Adams had 72. I don't know if Gross has too much service time, but Adams is clearly eligible for the ROY, Gross, I'm not sure about.

Counting Gross in the minors gives the Jays 3 legitimate position player prospects. Quiroz, Hill and Adams.

I guess I owe BCMike a beer.

Now if only you hadn't used a question mark :)

if some of the many pitchers pan out (Purcey, McGowan, Banks, Jackson)

The problem with trying to make a bigger deal is that you have to decide which pitching prospect(s) you are willing to give up or, conversely, keep.

In other words, can you predict who will be the best out of the group? By trading one or two of them you are reducing the chances that your 'crop will bear fruit'. Considering future success is almost entirely based on this crop, you have to be very sure you are making the right deal.

Gross played in 44 games last year, I'm guessing that he spent more then 45 days in the majors to do that.

And if I may quote myself:
'My biggest fear is that with the 8-10 legitimate pitching prospects the Blue Jays do have is that JP isn't able to identify the ones to keep and their greatest successes will be elsewhere.'

Oh I didnt realize you were going by the 45 game or ROY award to determine who is and is not a prospect. Myself I still consider Gross a legitimate prospect because I think he has a good chance to be a legitimate player and he isnt in the majors yet. Whether he is "technically" considered a prospect or not doesnt really interest me.

Gabe Gross isn't in the majors yet? Who's been wearing his uniform then?

I'm starting to get depressed reading all these threads/posts, although not depressing enough to turn me off from the Jays:)

This whole off-season is a nightmare. This was the first off-season JP has had the financial flexability that he wanted. The result has been poor to say the least.

But in JP's defence, the market went wacko this off-season. I didn't picture number 3 starters signing for 7.5-9 mil a year. But the real question is does JP get a "off-season pass" because the market went crazy therefore it's not his fault he couldn't bring in better players?

I still keep thinking and hoping that the plan has always been to deal Hinske. That's the only way this trade makes sense to me.

I read somewhere reputable that Gross was one at-bat shy of losing his rookie status.

Gabe Gross isn't in the majors yet? Who's been wearing his uniform then?

Gross has played 44 major league games, Adams has played 22 and Quiroz 17. "Technically" two may be prospects and one isnt (and Im not even sure that's true), but I think that's disingenuous and rather silly. 23 games into the season, if all goes according to what we assume are the Jay's current plans, Adams will have more major league experience than Gross.

Regarding Catalanotto: I was not a fan of his contract extension, and I still believe that Gabe Gross should be ready for the majors no later than May or possibly June. He hit .294/.381/.454 in 377 AB at Syracuse last year, and seems fully capable of a .300/.400/.500 AAA line early this year. Gross always takes a while to adjust to a new level, and he should spend the bulk of 2005 adjusting to the majors in Toronto. Gross' arrival should move Cat either to DH, the bench or another team. Put differently, I would expect the hottest bat among Hillenbrand, Hinske and Catalanotto to be moved no later than July.

I could be fuzzy on the rules, but since Gross played in 44 games and had 129 at-bats, he should still be a rookie.

There is absolutely no truth to the rumor that in order to avoid confusion, the Jays are going to refer to each one of the multitude of third basemen on the roster as "Bruce".

This team could easily finish above .500. It could easily finish with over 95 losses. Given the offense and the division they're in, I'd say the probability of each happening is roughly equal.

'Gross has played 44 major league games, Adams has played 22 and Quiroz 17. "Technically" two may be prospects and one isnt (and Im not even sure that's true), but I think that's disingenuous and rather silly. 23 games into the season, if all goes according to what we assume are the Jay's current plans, Adams will have more major league experience than Gross.'

That is all well and good. In general, prospects are players who are eligible for ROY. That's how the vast majority of people who are interested in this sort of thing act. BA, BP, ect accept these guidelines for their prospect lists. I don't see what the big deal is.. I still don't see Gross as a big time player no matter what we call him here.

'I could be fuzzy on the rules, but since Gross played in 44 games and had 129 at-bats, he should still be a rookie.'

I think that 45 days of service time makes you ineligible. Like Lew Ford was in 2004, he only had 73 at-bats in 2003, but too much service time.

I read somewhere reputable that Gross was one at-bat shy of losing his rookie status.

That makes sense. He had 129 last year, and I think 130 is the cutoff. There's also that other rule, the one that screwed Lew Ford (and Justin Morneau, for that matter). Something to do with the 45 days Jim mentioned.

a team full of Croziers or whomever else the Jays were going with at DH.

The Jays were going (or at least should have gone with) Frank Catalanotto. He was signed to a two-year contract, but certainly not as a left fielder, what with Gabe Gross on his way up. So if the outfield is out, Cat could have played first this year, but Koskie's signing moved Hinske there. Okay, so now he's the DH. Wait! A more expensive and lesser version of Catalanotto will be there instead.

Gross, Catalanotto, Hinske, Koskie, Hillenbrand. That's five guys for four lineup spots. Take a guess which one of them is superfluous? Robert Dudek said it better than I did in post #72.

Put differently, I would expect the hottest bat among Hillenbrand, Hinske and Catalanotto to be moved no later than July.

What kind of return could the Jays get for one of those players? Cat's the best hitter of the three at this point, but I can't see him giving anything of value back to Toronto. And if one of them is traded for a player of equal or lesser value than Peterson, then we've just had a pretty worthless six months, haven't we?

I guess that's a whole different animal: the value of Adam Peterson.

I wanna be negative too... In light of Shea Hillenbrand being labeled "mediocre" Here is my list of already mediocre Blue Jays!

Eric Hinske is mediocre.
Gregg Zaun is mediocre.
Greg Myers is mediocre.
Josh Towers is mediocre.
Miguel Batista is mediocre.
Vinny Chulk is mediocre.
John McDonald defines mediocre.
Reed Johnson is mediocrity with hustle.

The 45 day limit for ROY eligibility does not include time in September when the rosters are expanded. Lew Ford ate up his service time in May-July of 2003 as a backup outfielder. Gross was only called up in August so he only used about 25 days and is still eligible for the ROY award.

He hit .294/.381/.454 in 377 AB at Syracuse last year, and seems fully capable of a .300/.400/.500 AAA line early this year.

I think that's being pretty damned optimistic. How is it that you imagine in his (presumably) first full season in the bigs, Gross's numbers in all three of these categories are likely to improve over what he did in Triple A? I'd say .300 /.400 /.500 is probably about Gross's ceiling if he ever fully develops.

It speaks volumes as to what JP thinks of Gross that he has maintained that Gross will likely start the season in Syracuse. Logic says it's not because he expects more time in Triple A will be good for his development, but rather that he just doesn't expect much from Gross at the big league level (for whatever reason that is).

Again, no huge Hillenbrand fan, but is Gross likely to hit a combined .310/.348/.464 against both lefties and righties in Toronto this year? Somehow I doubt it. And while Hillenbrand does cost a few million bucks (which JP does actually have the luxury of burning this winter), I think we'd all be thrilled to see that line from Rios this year.

John McDonald defines mediocre.
John McDonald defines mediocre.

Actually, if you wanna be negative AND accurate, these guys are bad. McDonald defines bad. And our GM, who doesn't buy advanced fielding methods, traded a prospect for him.

How is it that you imagine in his (presumably) first full season in the bigs, Gross's numbers in all three of these categories are likely to improve over what he did in Triple A? I'd say .300 /.400 /.500 is probably about Gross's ceiling if he ever fully develops.

To clarify: that's the line I expect Gross to post at Triple-A in April and May. Give him 400 AB in the majors in '05 and you're probably looking at something like .260/.340/.420. And yes, if Gross ever posts a 900 OPS in a major-league season, I'll be very happy.

mediocrity with hustle

I think I've just found my autobiography title.

Jordan, I'd like to think Gross could post the big league line you list (the clarified one), but I think his first go-around would be more like .240/.300/.390, which would kill the team. In any case, it seems painfully obvious that JP is not, and I don't think ever has been, enamoured with Gross. Why that is, I'm not sure. His best attributes are decent patience and power, and it would seem that this year would be a good chance to see what he can do, but it doesn't look like JP really wants to find out. Is this just my perception?

I think we'd all be thrilled to see that line from Rios this year.

I'd be thrilled to see it from Hillenbrand. I don't think he can repeat that performance. Batting average fluctuates a lot. And there's not a lot to suggest that Hillenbrand will hit .310 again.

Here's the stats for the 2005 Jays starting lineup, as predicted by ZiPS:

PSN	NAME	Age	AVG	OBP	SPC	AB	HR	RBI	SB	CS	RC27	RC
CF	Wells	26	.296	.348	.511	632	30	100	7	2	6.4	111.0
DH	Shea	29	.297	.336	.456	563	17	75	2	1	5.5	84.2
RF	Rios	24	.295	.343	.411	593	7	59	14	4	5.2	84.0
3B	Koskie	32	.270	.374	.476	460	20	71	8	7	6.3	83.2
1B	Hinske	27	.253	.338	.420	557	18	71	12	5	5.0	80.7
2B	Hudson	27	.274	.344	.425	530	12	59	6	4	5.2	77.5
SS	Adams	24	.268	.332	.375	552	8	54	8	4	4.4	69.0
LF	Cat	31	.292	.352	.441	363	7	42	2	2	5.6	55.9
C	Zaun	34	.254	.348	.373	279	5	30	0	2	4.5	36.8
	TOTAL					4529	124	561	59	31		682.3

Here's a positive on the Shea signing: I can't wait for some meaningless game in September this year, when the Jays trot out the following infield, from left to right:

Aaron Hill, Russ "Thrillhouse" Adams, Orlando "Thill" Hudson, Shea Hillenbrand.

I dont get the Orlando one, Rob...

I'd be thrilled to see it from Hillenbrand.

LOL. I wouldn't be too sure he can't have a similar year. His 3 year averages work out to .295/.331/.463 in just over 1700 AB's, which is no small sample size (and right in line with the ZiPS projection). His home and road numbers, as well as his platoon splits in that time, are almost identical, so I doubt changing leagues and parks will have much of an effect. It seems reasonable to me to expect more of the same, if not another small uptick, seeing as he is at the prime age for an offensive spike.

I should add that weighted by ABs, ZiPS predicts this lineup to hit .279/.345/.436. If we factored in that non-starters like John McDonald will get ABs and there will be injuries, it will end up being a fair touch lower than that. By comparison, though, last year's squad hit .260/.328/.403.

When you factor in injuries, marginal players getting ABs, and the fact that ZiPS is more optimistic than I am, I see the 2005 Jays being at about last year's level or a slight bit above.

Last year the Blue Jays scored 719 team runs good for 22/30. I'm willing to predict the Jays score 800 or more runs (800 would have been good enough for 15/30 last year) and win 80 or more games. I think that is a year of making progress. I'd certainly take the finish .500 or above side of a prop bet W >= 81 vs. L >= 95.

Also I think people tend to think dh's hit better than they really do (like a typical dh hitting 40 hr's!). This move adds depth. Also this move might save them some money down the road if they can keep a player in the minors to slow his accumulation of service time and set back his arbitration clock. If you assume one of Koskie, Hinske, Hillenbrand, Fcat, and Johnson is likely to be injured at any given time and that from that mix, at least for the first 1/3 to 1/2 a season you need to find a 3b, 1b, dh, and lf I think this can turn out ok.

I agree that frontloading a hiske/wells type deal with hudson might be the best use of our money, but we may still be able to do this after this move.

I'm not a huge fan of the Shea deal, nor the Koch deal, and I don't like the Shoenweis deal. But overall this isn't a disaster because, ingeneral, the $ doesn't kill teams the "years" involved kill teams.

I think Shea can do .345/.475 which would make me very happy...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hudsoor01.shtml
I dont get the Orlando one, Rob...

It's his real middle name. I should have linked that one to his B-Ref page (COMN).

I like the flexibility with the flexibility provided by the 3B/1B/DH trio of Koskie. I agree with who starts where (Koskie-Hinske-Hillenbrand, respectively). If one goes down, they seemly trade spots, the F-Cat becomes the DH and up comes Gross. That sounds like a pretty decent back-up plan...

Maybe the reason the jays may not win many games this year is because they play with a get on base and then the hitter following you hits a homerun. Maybe the jays should consider using some of their team speed.
Johnson can both bunt and steal bases well
Hinske has shown to be a smart effective baserunner
Wells has great speed
Hudson has good speed
Koskie has averaged nearly 15 steals a year over the past 4 years.
The lineup has some speed, maybe all that is needed is more of building a team like the Florida Marlins, a team that hits singles and doubles.

All I can say about Gross is that the 2005 Jays must find 400+ at-bats for him, because they need to find out, now, if he and the other young players can help this club down the road. I trust, despite the various acquisitions, that those 400+ ABs will materialize by season's end.

I agree with you Lucila that speed might well be a weapon the Jays use. And might well be an undervalued resource (like OBP used to be). You still want a realatively high success rate, although since you can choose when to run it isn't always BE at 75% or 80% (I.e., stealing 2nd from 1st with 0 outs may require a different success rate to be successful when compared to stealing 2nd with 2 outs).

Ok, Rob... I was wondering where that one came from ;-)

maybe all that is needed is more of building a team like the Florida Marlins, a team that hits singles and doubles.

2004 Blue Jays: 1438 Hits, 290 2b, 34 3b, 145 HR, 513 BB, 719 Runs
2004 Marlins:___1447 Hits, 275 2b, 32 3b, 148 HR, 499 BB, 718 Runs

That's the problem. They already hit like the Florida Marlins. In the AL, with a DH.

I disagree with you Jordan (about Gross) for 2 reasons:

1. 2006 isn't going to be the year that the Jays must win now or else the window is closed so they can find out things then too.

2. You can find out things from him in AAA (nearly) as well as you can from him playing in the majors. And if the choice is between 600 PA in AAA and 400 PA in the majors (if he were a major platoon/bat off bench/backup for some of the year) you might even learn more from the AAA time.

I agree that getting him time isn't a bad thing (unless it effects his arbitration time, in which case it may well be a bad thing) and that it does seem quite possible that they will get him time, but disagree that it is a *must* for them to so do.

Maybe the reason the jays may not win many games this year is because they play with a get on base and then the hitter following you hits a homerun

Where is the proof that the Jays preach OBP and wait for the homerun with men on base?

If you look at last year's stats, the Jays as a team had a very poor HR total and OBP.

You mean the Marlin teams that have finished 11th, 8th, and 12th in the 16 team NL in runs scored over the past 3 seasons? They're not exactly a model of offensive prowess.

If you look at the team rankings over since 2002, the league leader in runs scored in both leagues has ALWAYS been in the Top 3 in both SLG and OBP. It's not like JP doesn't know how to build an offensive machine. I don't recall many complaints about the 2003 Blue Jay attack (other than those from our favourite Star columnist, which have long ceased to count in my opinion). Two years ago the Jays were third in the AL in OBP, second in SLG, and second in runs scored. The problem isn't the approach, it's having the players to execute it.

They may have similar stats, except the marlins have an advantage because whenever one of them gets one base the pitcher has to worry about the runner stealing. When a team plays the jays now they dont have to worry about that.

Well if the pitchers are so worried by the Marlins' speed, why doesn't it show up in the number of runs they score?

the marlins have an advantage because whenever one of them gets one base the pitcher has to worry about the runner stealing.

Only two players on the 2004 Marlins had more than five stolen bases.

Maybe the Jays should consider having a high team OBP. It worked in 2003.

The Marlins stole 96 bases last year (the Jays stole 58). One guy accounted for almost half of them. It's just not a very big deal.

The Marlins had the 11th best offense in the National League.

In fairness to them, they do play in a terrific pitcher's park. So you might say they have (maybe) almost an average offense.

I think if the Jays could make pitchers worry about stealing a base, thus worrying about keeping the runner close to the bag, the jays would be far more effective on offense. Last year pitchers never had to worry about the man on base, they simply had to worry about the batter, if that changes the jays could win better that 84 games

Maybe the Jays should consider having a high team OBP.

You might be on to something there, big fella. The Boston Red Sox had the best on-base percentage in the majors, and - shock - they scored more runs than anyone else, too.

Those silly Red Sox, trying to build a good offensive team without stealing many bases.

Last year pitchers never had to worry about the man on base

Because no one on the team who could actually get on base.

Except Delgado...

With the injuries we had i wonder why

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1965565
MLB and the Players Union have reached a new agreement on roids, first time offenders will be punished now.

Let's see if HR totals drop off next season.

Lucila, it's a good theory, and in the context of a tie game the ability to steal a base late in the game to get in position to score on a single is valuable. At the same time, there is absolutely zero correlation between a team's stolen base count and the number of runs it scores over the course of a season. None, nada, zip, zilch, zero. It's simply not a viable strategy as a means to increase a club's offensive production; it's merely a useful tool to raise the odds of scoring a single run in given situation.

There is nothing wrong with the Jays offensive approach; the problem is that they don't have enough hitters with power and patience to implement it the way they want to. Healthy rebound seasons from Cat and Hinske as well as some power improvement from Rios would go a long way towards fixing last year's woes.

Andrew, I'm all for it, so long as each player doesn't get thrown up 6 or 7 times in attempting to break the club records a la Tony Fernandez.

Can anyone tell that I am just trying to avoid getting my work done?

With the injuries we had i wonder why

That's very true, but this team just doesn't have those kinds of hitters anyway. The league average on-base was .333; the Jays had only three hitters (Delgado, Zaun, and Menechino) who were significantly better than that.

You just can't do anything - you can't have a running attack, you can't have a power attack, you can't have a singles and doubles attack - if you don't get people on base.

Let's see if HR totals drop off next season.

A cynic in the house!

Rich - you and me both brother!

Somebody earlier said that the Orioles have had a worse offseason than the Jays because they only signed Kline... First, when you compare the money Kline got and the money that Schoeneweis got I think Baltimore clearly came out the better there. Also, I see great value and wisdom in not spending money when there are not good investments to be made. Saving your bullets (i.e. money) for potential deals to come up later in the offseason or in spring training seem to me to be far wiser than blowing significant money on mediocre talent early in the game. And if nothing arises - fine, save the money, play the kids, and live to fight (in better shape) another day.

Andrew,

I'll do yours if you do mine. How are you with VB.NET programming with SQL Server?

And if nothing arises - fine, save the money, play the kids, and live to fight (in better shape) another day.

In a logical universe, you're absolutely right. But I think Ricciardi is probably thinking "I've got $53 million to spend this year, and maybe next year, I'll get $ 55 or 58. But if I only spend $45 million this year, I'll be lucky if I get $50 million to play with in 2006."

I wonder if Hinske was on the juice prior to last season. At Spring Training he said he dropped about 15pds due to working out and a better diet. Of course his power also disappeared.

But on the flip side Vernon Wells was asked about roids and he said he's never seen or heard of a Blue Jay doing roids.

Hinske looked too round to me (even after his weight loss) to be juiced up. He didn't have the I'm-muscular-and-inflated look of oh, say, Jason Giabmi.

Not so well, Rich.

Can you derive a general Lorentz tranform?
I'm pretty sure I mostly know how it goes, except for time. :(

Vernon Wells was asked about roids and he said he's never seen or heard of a Blue Jay doing roids.

What else could he say?

Hinske's a strange case. Do you realize he set a career high last year - in singles?

Hinske hit 99 singles (41 XB hits)last year, after hitting 94 as a rookie (64 XB hits) and just 49 as a sophomore (with 60 XB hits).

But, despite how he looks, despite how big and strong he might be, unless something changes radically in his approach at the plate, he's just not looking like he'll be a big HR hitter.

His career average is 1 HR every 30 at bats, and even in his best HR year he was only hitting one every 24 AB.

He's a big, muscular line-drive hitter...

But Magpie, I'm not saying we don't spend the money all season long... I'm saying we be patient... things may arise later in the offseason, or in spring training... or through the season. And in the rare case that nothing ever came up, I'd spend it on better talent in the draft and play the kids now (i.e. Gross) and see exactly where we are.

In a logical universe, you're absolutely right. But I think Ricciardi is probably thinking "I've got $53 million to spend this year, and maybe next year, I'll get $ 55 or 58. But if I only spend $45 million this year, I'll be lucky if I get $50 million to play with in 2006."

If this season is as ugly as it could be, Ricciardi may not be around in 2006 to spend whatever dollars are allocated to him. None of us know what goes in within the Jays front office, but if I were Ted Rogers, I'd rather have a guy running the ball team who's willing to tell me that there are no investments out there that make sense within the context of what the team has, rather than a guy who spends the money anyway on the hope that there will be more in the cookie jar next season.

Andrew, does this help: http://users.powernet.co.uk/bearsoft/Ltre.html? Makes my head hurt, personally.

The only rationalization I can see for Hillenbrand signing, and I don't think this is sufficient, is that they only plan on having him for half a year (i.e. 2 million dollars) at which point they can trade him off to some team who stares too much at his batting average and RBI's for a legit prospect... all the while giving our young hitters an extra few months to develop.

things may arise later in the offseason, or in spring training

I agree absolutely. Geez, why not take the $4 mill Hillenbrand will probably end up getting, and the $2 mill for Schoeneweis, and the $900 K for Billy Koch and whatver stray millions might be kicking around and wave it in Magglio's face?

Of course, it's also quite likely that Ricciardi sees 2005 as a holding year while the young players continue to arrive - it's not a year to even pretend you're contending. In that case, there's not much point in taking one-year fliers on risky guys like Ordonez (or my own idee fixe) Juan-Gone. That really only makes sense if you're serious about this year, and don't really have a better option elsewhere anyway.

But better still was Dudek's idea - locking up O-Dog past his arbitration years. If you put a nice chunk of it into a signing bonus, it effectively front-loads the deal. So you have cost-certainty through his arbitration years, and if you do want to move him down the road (say Aaron Hill is banging on the door can not be denied), he'll be both very attractive and affordable to most everyone.

To put the ZiPS projects into perspective, the top-12 hitters (in AB) recorded 4475AB last year, where as ZiPS projects 4529 from the top-10 this year. So they're a pretty comparable cohort. Here is how the 2004 guys performed:

PSN	NAME	AGE	AVG	OBP	SPC	AB	HR	RBI	SB
C	Zaun	33	.269	.367	.393	338	6	36	0
1B	Delgado	32	.269	.372	.535	458	32	99	0
2B	Hudson	26	.270	.341	.438	489	12	58	7
3B	Hinske	26	.246	.312	.375	570	15	69	12
SS	Gomez	33	.282	.337	.346	341	3	37	3
LF	Reed	27	.270	.320	.380	537	10	61	6
CF	Wells	25	.272	.337	.472	536	23	67	9
RF	Rios	23	.286	.338	.383	426	1	28	15
DH	Phelps	26	.237	.296	.417	295	12	51	0
OF	Cat	30	.293	.344	.390	249	1	26	1
UT	Mene	33	.301	.400	.504	236	9	25	0
	TOTAL		.270	.339	.421	4475	124	557	53

Since ZiPS predicts a .279/.345/.436 from the starters, this starters on this year's club should hit for 9 points more of BA, 6 points more of OBP, and 15 points more of SLG. They'll hit exactly the same number of homeruns, collect 4 more RBI, and steal 6 more bases in about 60 more AB.

There's some improvement there. There's also a fair amount of improvement that can come from the bench, since the Jays won't be giving ABs to Dave Berg.

I thought the bats on the 2005 Jays would be slightly worse, but it looks like they'll be slightly better than in 2004, with the caveat that I believe ZiPS to be overly optimistic. I wouldn't expect a huge change, though.

Michael, it's true that 2006 isn't Toronto's all-or-nothing year, and that you can learn a lot from AAA. The problem is that in Gross's case, they already have an excellent idea what he can do at AAA: .290/.380/.450. What they don't know is whether he can hit big-league pitching, hit it consistently, and survive the subsequent adjustments by the pitchers. The .209 he posted in limited action last fall has to make them wonder a little.

Gross will be 25 this upcoming season, and legitimate young hitters (and former first-round draft picks) shouldn't be spending their age-25 season repeating AAA -- not when their big-league team is going nowhere and is running a declining veteran and a platoon player out into left field every day. Either Gross is a part of a future Jays contender, or he's not: the sooner the team finds out, the sooner they can either solidify their contention plans around him or discard him.

Gabe Gross in Syracuse in 2005 does not help the Toronto Blue Jays, today or in the future. If a healthy Gross isn't in Toronto to stay by June 1 at the latest, something's gone seriously wrong.

I posted the following about three weeks ago, and it seems a little more pertinent now. So I cut, I paste, I run it back up the flagpole:

If Koskie comes on board, he makes up for most of Delgado's 2004 production. I don't like his chances of matching Delgado's 2005 production, but that's not the problem.

Catcher and shortstop should be a little better - Kevin Cash will not be batting 181 times, which is bound to help the team.

Adams should do a little more than Gomez/Woodward.

Centre field will also be marginally better if Wells can simply play 150 games this time.

So I think at this point, the offense is roughly even with last year. If the offense is going to take a step forward, there are four spots where it needs to improve:

1. Can the Hinske spot in the lineup be better?
2 and 3. Can the team get more than 17 HRs combined from the two corner outfielders?
4. Can they find a designated hitter that will be better than .233 with 17 HR and .377 slugging percentage?

I think the answer to 4. is now definitely yes - Hillenbrand is just an average hitter, but he's better than what was trotted out there last year.

I think the answer to 2 and 3 is probably yes - they'll get more 17 HRs from Sparky/Cat and Rios. They might get... a total of 30. It'll help.

I think the answer to 1. is now a toss-up.

So I think they can score somewhere from 740-760 runs. And in order to get close to .500, they need to reduce the runs allowed.

Easy. Take all Pat Hentgen's 2004 innings and give them all to Roy Halladay.

That's a start, anyway.

As posted before, I'm disapointed with the off-season. Chances are this was the best the Jays could do coming off a losing season and having the "Canada" effect to deal with. As much as I love this team, my pssion for the Blue and Silver is unquestionable, I just can't see them being much better then last year.

With that said we do have to consider the fact that the Yankees will not be as good as they have in the past and the Red Sox don't have Pedro anymore, a guy who just killed the Jays (and liked to pick on Halladay). I'm sill excited for opeing day because of my love for the team and the sport but opening day '06 has me a little more energized right now.

I would have preferred the Jays to have spent their “disposable income” this offseason on high risk high reward players like J.Gonzalez or Kevin Millwood. (the Wade Miller signing irks me daily).

At least that way Jays fans could have dreamed of a magical wild card run if everything came together; if they flopped no harm, no foul given the low expectations on the team this season and the opportunity cost of not being able to acquire Hillenbrand or Schonenenweis wouldn’t have had Jays fans shedding any tears.

I’d love JP to show some interest in B.Y. Kim.

Does T.Lee seem just as good and likely far cheaper than Hillenbrand to anybody else?

We can look at the acquisitions of the past couple of days another way too: JP still wants to field a competitive club even if he knows that this year's team will not contend. There are a number of reasons for him to spend the rest of his budget on whatever he feels are the best available players right now:

• His own neck could be on the line if the club turns in another 90-loss season. Even if it's not, he has taken quite a battering in the local media and another year of it will be tough to take.


• The team can't likely contend in 2006 if it doesn't show marked improvement in 2005


• A complete rebuilding year in 2005 probably means lower attendance and tv ratings, translating into less revenue for Rogers and likely a lower payroll (or at least no increase) in 2006.

In short, there's nothing wrong with some stopgap additions to make your team better in the coming season if you have the money, aren't committing long-term, or have to give up top prospects in exchange. I don't love SS, Koch, or Hillenbrand, but they could all help the club this season, fit into the budget, and didn't cost much if anything in return.

I think Rich is right. Although I don't like the moves for their efficiency, brilliance, high reward potential or cheapness, the Jays had $'s to spend and these moves will make the team (at least marginally) better next year.

If they get lucky and all or some of the moves pan out, they'll get more money to spend in subsequent years and will have a better chance of winning.

Yes, clement, lee etc. would have been nice, but I'd rather see Hillenbrand out there than not out there.

I agree with Robert. The only thing I have to add is that the current situation is nothing like picking the last player in a fantasy game. Salary room has value long after the free agent season ends. Teams do try to get rid of large contracts at various points in time for a variety of reasons, from fiscal to personnel changes.

Pitchers who are healthy in January, for instance, can have arm problems in spring training and then their teams must seek possibly expensive pitching replacements. With that can come the need for adjustments to the team's salary structure and opportunity for a team like the Jays who happens to have salary room waiting.

With Cat/Menenchino as a DH and Gross/Johnson as a LF prior to this acquisition, there was no need for it. Patience was called for.

Rich, to that list, I would add a fourth bullet: he wants to win ballgames. A fan like me may be content to sit back and wait for the prized youngsters to arrive, but someone as competitive as Ricciardi must die several deaths when his team skids and stumbles its way to loss after loss. If one of his goals is to use the available money to field a halfway respectable 2005 club, I can't fault him for that.

So long as Gabe Gross gets 400+ at-bats, that is....

Thanks for that Jordan. A fan like me actually isn't content to sit back and watch another year of shite baseball. I can live with a .500 team that looks like it's going places.

I disagree that "patience was called for". For what? In the possible event that a better deal might come along a GM should pass up an affordable player who is an upgrade over what he currently has? That's nuts. If other opportunities present themselves later this winter or early spring JP can still make trades; he has some pieces to deal if he wants to. This was a terrible ball club last year. If you were running it, how could you not grab some minor upgrades when you could?

Look, I'm not thrilled with this winter's moves as a whole either, at least not when I dream of having gotten Koskie, Clement, and Lee. I'm happy to criticize JP for not getting a deal done with the Chisox, or for seeming to be unwilling to let Gross play, but I won't malign the guy for doing his best to build with the guys who become available.

In many ways, the 2005 version of the Jays is starting to resemble this team which, if I recall correctly, is exactly the model that Godfrey has been touting for a couple of years now. It's very possible that this organization is more on plan than you think.

I'm not suggesting that the Jays will have the same kind of success, simply that the methodologies appear similar - short on HR power and walks but heavy on singles and doubles with solid D and three good young starters to act as a framework in preparation for the rest of the kids.

(BTW, check out who Shea's 2nd and 4th most similar batters are.)

Are we so sure that Hillenbrand is going to help us win more ballgames than what our options were before he signed on? I don't think anyone here is impressed with his on base percentage or slugging percentage, and at 29 I'm not expecting an improvement in those numbers. His defence adds no value because, a) his defence is poor, and b) he's the DH anyways. I'd like to see someone post some VORP numbers or Win Shares for Hillenbrand vs. the alternatives. If he's better than the other guys I bet it's by no more than a few wins over an entire season. That won't be making a difference.

Well, before the trade, who did you have pencilled in at DH?

Runs Above Replacement Level (Offensive Only)

Player A

2001: -1
2002: 24
2003: 16
2004: 25

Player B

2001: 34
2002: 10
2003: 23
2004: 5

Guess who?

http://www.gamespot.com/xbox/sports/espnmajorleaguebaseball2k5/media.html
For all you gamers out there Gamespot has posted 8 vids of ESPN MLB 2k5.

I'm really loving the presentation as they got both Jon Miller and Joe Morgan in the booth. Also Karl Ravech is the host.

The Xbox version supports custom soundtracks so you can pick music for every hitter in the game.

I better start working on my list for the Jays.

I should play Who Let the Dogs Out by Baha Men when O-Dog steps up the plate.

Player A is Hillenbrand. Player B is Cat. No one is impressed with Shea's percentages, but who do the Jays have that is a good bet to equal those numbers this year?

That similar batter stuff is spooky, Spicol.

Well, before the trade, who did you have pencilled in at DH?

You're kidding, right? I know you weren't asking me this question, but look through this thread:
Myself: I would rather have kept Cat at DH...I still think the team was better off with Gross in left, Cat at DH, and Hinske playing first base.
Nigel: your point about Cat is an interesting one. His contract as a good one rests in his offense and ability to stay healthy. All of which made him the logical DH.
Robert Dudek:There is no reason to overpay a guy like Shea when you have a first baseman and a DH who are just as good (Hinske and Cat)...But Cat is in his decline phase and is a liability in the outfield. He should DH.
Mike Green: With Cat/Menenchino as a DH and Gross/Johnson as a LF prior to this acquisition, there was no need for it.

Frankie C and Frankie M were just fine as the DH -- I forgot about the latter Frank earlier, which makes this trade all the more...well, stupid -- and there was no need to acquire Hillenbrand. None.

If one of Hinske/Cat/Hillenbrand is traded later on, then fine, there's something new to talk about. But as of now, Peterson-for-Hillenbrand makes absolutely no sense. Anyone-for-Hillenbrand makes no sense.

if they flopped no harm, no foul

I don't buy that. If you throw $8M in total bargain contract prices at Gonzalez, Millwood and Miller, it makes for a happier offseason. And if Gonzalez sprains his hair on Opening Day, Miller goes 7-15 and Millwood bloats a 6.12 ERA, then massive harm, massive foul, and nobody would be complaining louder and longer and the GM wasting all that money on failed free agen signings than the passionate fans on Da Box, and Rich Griffin would have a summerlong crusade about how Roto-GM could have spent that money on bringing home Corey Koskie to Canada.

Everyone is in a bad, pessimistic mood on this site because the Jays haven't won since some of you were in grammar school, I understand that. But JP isn't in a no-harm, no-foul zone right now; he's in a can't-win position. He will be criticized for every move he makes this offseason (and I admit, rightfully so in some cases, I think) and he will be hammered next year if Miller wins 18 for the Sox or Gonzalez hits 44 home runs on Lake Erie. Write the lede now ... "As Ricciardi's big offseason acquisitions continue to struggle, the fans must wonder what might have been if he'd laid out the same dollars for genuine stars like the ones in Boston and Cleveland right now ..."

And crikey, how many times do we have to say it? Just because a player signs for a certain amount in one city doesn't mean Ricciardi could have had him for a dollar more! Just in the last week, Da Box has moved from "I can't believe we haven't made any moves this offseason" to resoundingly bitching -- again, with some merit -- about the Jays making a move! How is that no harm, no foul?

Okay, gotta share my favorite offseason quote of the year, though this is from memory and probably a little off accurate, you'll get the gist. Derek Lowe on Fos Sports Radio today is in an LA studio getting his gluteus kissed by the local hosts who ask, "Derek, why the Dodgers?" His response:

"Of course, mostly it's about winning. I wanted to go somewhere with a history of winning and that had a chance to win next year.

Um, Derek? You just left the freaking defending World Champs. They have a pretty good shot at being in contention next year, ace. The Dodgers last won a World Series SEVENTEEN YEARS AGO and have lost two of their best (and only) hitters this offseason. The closest the Dodgers will get to Boston's success this year is when they're in Shea facing Pedro Martinez.

As a Yankee fan, writing every part of that last graf wounded me.

I'm not kidding, because

a) this thread is very damned long
and
b) it should be readily apparent that no matter what we may think, JP does not consider Gross as a serious option, at least not to start the season.

In all honesty, do you think Menechino and Gross would combine for a .295/.331/.463 line next season? Because assuming that Cat and Johnson are the leftfield platoon, this is what you are presenting as the alternative to Hillenbrand, positions aside. Is it possible those two could combine for this line? Sure, but that would be if they both hit well. This is Hillenbrand's 3 year average and therefore is far more likely. The trade makes plenty of sense and you don't have to be a Shea Hillenbrand fan (good Lord, is there such a thing?) to see it. You are outsmarting yourself if you can't see the rationale. And it's not overpaying if you have the money.

- Tampa Bay's offseason acquisitions have been Alex Gonzalez and Josh Phelps. You're not going to finish ahead of the Blue Jays if you are collecting Blue Jay castoffs.

I'd take Phelps over Hillenbrand any day of the weak--sorry, week.

Although maybe Toronto could trade Hillenbrand back to Boston for Kim! Yea!

In many ways, the 2005 version of the Jays is starting to resemble this team...

Did Koskie suddenly turn 28 again?

And if Gonzalez sprains his hair on Opening Day,

LOL

Not so much of a problem for Koskie, is it?

I can't believe the way some of villifying Shea...I mean, as far as I can tell, he's a healthier version of the Cat...He's not a world beater...but a team that employs 9 Frank Catalanotto's 1-9 is going to have a productive offence

a team that employs 9 Frank Catalanotto's 1-9 is going to have a productive offence

And possibly the worst fielding SS in the history of the game ;)

but a team that employs 9 Frank Catalanotto's 1-9 is going to have a productive offence

And the worst up-the-middle defense of all time. I love Cat, I do. But comparing him with players who play good defense is apples and oranges.

That's it. I've been saying the same thing in this thread over and over again, and I bet nobody likes reading through the same post by me, 17 times. I'm not going to say anything more about how bad of a trade this is for Toronto. Nothing.

As of now, I welcome Shea to his new team. I hope he proves me completely wrong.

The Blue Jays need more fans like Dudek. Fans who demand the club to field a competitive team. Fans who call for ownership to increase their budget. Fans who will question questionable moves by the GM and demand more.

Frankly these threads are way to long on apologists of budget constraint. If every one in Toronto and Canada (a so called small market by many, sheesh) wants to eat the crap Rogers is feeding its market the good old Ted Rogers might keep serving it keep serving it up.

Part of Ricciardi's job is to sell his club to the free agents. By his own admission he can't seem to do that. I have said it before, this club to the best of my recollection has not historically had a great deal of trouble attracting free agents to Canada. Cripes tons of Americans want to emmigrate from the USA. In fact Canada is one of the top choices in the world of countries to immigrate to.

I think theres a combination of factors at play. Number one is non committed ownership. JP's personality seems to me to be a bit of a turn off to some players. Hey I might be wrong about this but he is no charmer. And a general conception that this team is like being banished to Pittsburg.

I think Cleveland is a pretty decent model of rebuilding. Even a dummy like me could see their plan three - four years ago. The plan here seems to be to load up on dis-satified jerks and flakes.

But perhaps jerks and flakes are under valued in todays market.

Dudek for GM. Theres a sign for the Cheer Club. But Robert you would have to promise to work on your disposition just a tad. OK? ;)

I'd take Phelps over Hillenbrand any day of the weak--sorry, week.

What are the odds of playing seven games without facing a righthanded pitcher? Or a hard thrower? I'd only take Phelps over Hillenbrand on certain days of the week, like the days the opposing pitcher's last name rhymes with "Boyer."

And it's not exactly like Josh Phelps is a walk machine, either, by the way. Their difference in patience at the plate is not so wide as to justify hating Shea and loving Josh, even assuming that Josh can overcome his massive holes in his swing -- of which the whole league is aware. Put differently, there isn't a single GM in baseball who would agree with this quoted statement. Phelps was so freely available a few weeks ago that Tampa Bay could scoop him up!

Do I think Hillenbrand's a great player? No. Would I rather have Craig Wilson or Brad Wilkerson than Shea Hillenbrand? Absolutely. But saying that Eric Crozier, Gabe Gross or Josh Phelps are not only better, but clearly better, offensive options for DH than Shea Hillenbrand in 2005 simply does not comport with reality.

Even though the tone in Da Box has been very negative this off-season, we all share one trait that many other Canadians don't, and that's giving a damm about the Blue Jays.

Through all the dark clouds we will still support the Jays even when it appears they are heading for another season of non-playoff contending baseball. I'm sure the Jays wished they had more fans that have the passion we do, whether it's positive or negative.

I can't speak for the citizens in Toronto because I don't live there, but I can tell you there is basically zero Jays coverage out here in Vancouver. I'm starting to think many Vancouverites don't even know Baseball exists.

But saying that Eric Crozier, Gabe Gross or Josh Phelps are not only better, but clearly better, offensive options for DH than Shea Hillenbrand in 2005 simply does not comport with reality.

This is absolutely right - Toronto DHs last year hit .233 with 17 HR and on OPS below .700. Hillenbrand, ordinary as he is, will almost certainly be better than that.

I may just be nostalgic for the days when you could scrape Cliff Johnson and Jorge Orta off the scrap heap for a bag of baseballs and get genuinely good production of the spot.

Because you're just looking for a bat; you're just looking for a Ken Phelps. You don't need a whole player. Just a bat.

Ah, I guess the rest of the baseball world has caught up a little bit...

As a Yankee fan, writing every part of that last graf wounded me.

Mick, I don't mean this in a bad way (I'm very partial to the Red Sox, myself), but how did you come to be associated with Batter's Box as a Yankees fan who lives in Texas? Did you just happen to know some of the Roster from previous internet travels? It sounds like there's a story here...

Fans who call for ownership to increase their budget.

I'm so tired of this sentiment. The Jays aren't the Leafs, with buckets and buckets of money handed by over by people who'll show up to watch anything. How much would the Jays have needed to increase the budget by to have a reasonably solid shot of making the playoffs this year? If they'd signed Delgado, Pedro and Beltran, would that have given them a reasonably solid shot? You're looking at a minimum $45 annually for that, and I'll ignore the ridiculous years that the Jays would have had to hand out to do it. Spending another $20 million to finish in 3rd is just stupid; it makes no business sense whatsoever. Spending $50 million for this collection of players makes no sense at all either, but that's a different problem. The fact of the matter is, for the Jays to be a contender, they need multiple guys who perform at a high level, and who are in their first six years in the majors. They don't have that right now.

Cripes tons of Americans want to emmigrate from the USA.

I'd be willing to bet that the political views of ballplayers tend to hew more closely to those of Mr. Zaun than to those of Alec Baldwin. And the dollar trumps all. Of all the things I'm going to hang on JP, his inability to convince guys to come to a foreign country to play for a losing club isn't one of them.

Ron, Im sitting here in the westend of Vancouver right now. Not sure your age but the Blue Jays were huge in Vancouver. I went to see two exhibition games against the Mariners here. There had to be 25 to 30,000 fans at those games. And this was before their World Series victories.

Everyone I knew followed the Jays. Everyone. Alas, most of those fans have slipped away. Fans here want to see a competitive club. Have a look at the Lions. Ownership clearly committed to the market and you saw what happened. Even when GM Place opened the Canucks couldn't sell out. But when Burke came with a clear plan, sold it and the fans seen success, they were back.

Toronto has seen a resurgence of the Argo's. Again smart ownership.

The market is what you make it.

But I do whole heartedly agree with all of you post. Thanks for the lift.

Lefty, I didn't even know the Jays played exhibition games in Vancouver before. But I did attend the 4 team exhibition series many moons ago at BC Place. I remeber Lou flipped out because Edgar got injured sliding into 2B. And I got John Jaha's autograph at the event!

Watching the local sportscast, and listening to radio (730 and 1040) there's virtually no Jays coverage out here. Out of my social circle, I'm the only baseball fan.

As for the Lions and Canucks, the Lower Mainland is a bandwagon city for the most part. I had club seats to many games during the Keenan era when the Nucks were brutal and there were thousands of empty seats. I wonder if Toronto would pack the Skydome if the Jays were a playoff contending team?

Have you ever driven down to Safeco before? I'm thinking about heading down to catch the Jays when they play in Seattle this summer.

Mick, I don't mean this in a bad way (I'm very partial to the Red Sox, myself), but how did you come to be associated with Batter's Box as a Yankees fan who lives in Texas? Did you just happen to know some of the Roster from previous internet travels? It sounds like there's a story here...

Mick's lived all over the place. Doesn't quite explain his fondness of the Evil Empire, but in any case, he's not a lifelong Texan.

Also, he and Coach were both ESPN fantasy correspondents during 2002. A bad lot, those correspondents.

Those were Exhibition games. I was also at Gar game that consigned him to a career at DH. Seen the Brewers too.

I have driven to Safco. I won a couple tickets on the Team 1040. Great seats. Brought my son down.

Its a snap, get off at either the Mercer St. exit and drive along the waterfront road and your there, or take the first exit after the long underpaas at downtown. There are signs that indicate Safeco.

Parking around the stadium is good if you get there fairly early. Lots of decent food and beer around outside until the gates open.

Getting home is little tougher. At least just getting out of the area due to the very very strong attendance of their committed fans.

So now you now one other Jay fan in Vancouver.

I don't live in Vancouver, but I do live in BC and most of the baseball fans I know are Jay fans. Of course, I don't know that many baseball fans...

I don't know what to think about Hillenbrand, really. I'm not a fan. I'm not a fan of trading prospects for 30 year olds either unless you're ready to compete. I'd rather let Crozier and Gross develop/adjust to the bigs than watch Hillenbrand and Catalanotto hack away, but whatever.

This offseason has been fairly disappointing to me. I don't really know what I expected, but the prospect of getting Delgado's contract off the books seemed pretty damned appealing in any case. Too bad about the market and all that.

Bah, whatever, bring on Spring Training.

I don't understand all the fuss about this move and the SS signing. In the larger scheme of things, they are pretty irrelevant. Firstly, both players will probly net a solid prospects as J.P. flips them. And secondly, in neither case is the player is question (SS or Shea) a permanant solution. They are merely a "stop gaps" if you will.

Perhaps J.P. could've cracked the piggy bank and unloaded a few blue chip prospects for a Brad Wilkerson or Nick Johnson. But that said, I assume players of that elk will be every bit as available in a year or two as they are now.

Moreover, the prospects we give up now are more valueable that prospects given up in a year or two. This is because prospects traded away now figure to be mature as we become competative. whereas the prospects we trade away later will be somewhat less valuable because we will (theoretically and hopfully) be an established, competative team, and therefore in less need of prospects.

""So why acquire a player who is slightly worse than Cat, about the same age, costs more, and who will end up DHing on this team more than he'll play any other position? Why? I can't fathom any reason to do this, especially as it will force Cat to the outfield and weaken the defence.

Why do this? Please someone explain this to me. The only explanation I can think of is that the Jays think Shea is a better hitter than he actually is. That's all I can come up with - please help me out here and give me an alternative explanation.""

Ever try decafe? Or prozac?

""Cat is only 1 yr older than Shea. Why does the hitter have to be better than Cat to be acquired?""

Good point.

I'm not the world's biggest Hillenbrand fan, but I can see the rationale behind acquiring him. Somebody above mentioned that balance is a necessary component for a good offense.

The last few years, it seemed as if every strikeout by a Jays hitter came with a runner on 3B and fewer than 2 outs when a SF or 4-3 groundout would have produced a run.

There are already enough deep-count batters in this lineup. Adding one early-count hacker who makes excellent contact might improve the situational hitting.

Ricciardi and company are smart enough to know that too much of any one approach is not productive (unless you have a lineup of 9 Bonds). They may want to learn if the balance theory will make a difference; if so, a one-year commitment to find out seems like a reasonable experiment to me.

Brad Wilkerson or Nick Johnson. But that said, I assume players of that elk

I think that Wilkerson roams the outfield more like a deer than an elk. For the love of God man, the word is ilk.

As for Johnson, I have a tremendous man-crush on him and his ability to get on base. In the June 16, 2004 Roundup, I wrote this:

I would take Nick Johnson for anybody in the Blue Jays organization, save for Halladay and Wells.

I stand by that.

Watching the local sportscast, and listening to radio (730 and 1040) there's virtually no Jays coverage out here.

Thank god for that. Listening to either station talk baseball drives me insane.

Actually the media in BC is trying real hard to convert people over to Mariner fans. But this is for the most part Blue Jay country and it always will be as long as there are 120+ Jay games on TV.

I would take Nick Johnson for anybody in the Blue Jays organization, save for Halladay and Wells.

I stand by that.

Are you standing in the Nuthouse? ;)

I'm trying to weigh the off seasons moves by analysis along the lines of what JP said going into the offseason. He basically said that Jays may be better of using Delgado money to sign 2 or 3 players to replace and improve on his production.

So is Koskie and Hillenbrand an improvement over Delgado and Phelps/Zaun/ any other DH?

Have the numbers people around here taken a look at this?

Mick's lived all over the place. Doesn't quite explain his fondness of the Evil Empire, but in any case, he's not a lifelong Texan.

I don't want to focus on my personal history here, but since the question is out there ... Lucas is right, I moved to Texas from New York though I spent most of my growing-up years in Ohio. Dad was a Yankee fan and I grew up on stories of DiMaggio at The Stadium. It's very much true, and I've said this before here, being a Yankee fan is sort of a birthright more than anything else.

I ended up in DFW because you can't take the girl out of Texas OR take the Texas out of the girl. I think the only reaso my lovely bride would leave the Lone Star state would be if Martha Stewart offered her a job.

Leigh don't be a dick about grammar.

Leigh, keep holding people to minimum standards of literacy.

I'm just an old lightkeeper at Nootka on the west coast but I still remember Rocky Colavito cranking two homers at Maple Leaf Stadium in '58, God bless him. I guess you can take the boy out of Toronto but you can't take Toronto out of the boy. We used to get Blue Jays on the radio on the weekends on the Coast until the strike in '94. Who decided we wanted to listen to Mariners games, anyway? They should be ashamed. I listen to them only when they play the Blue Jays.

Nick Johnson is overrated, period:

.255 .372 .418 in 1020 major league at-bats. He is also injury-prone and would cost Alex Rios to acquire. In the past 3 years his OPS is exactly .008 better than Hillenbrand's and the latter is healthy and only cost Adam Peterson. Johnson's only plus is that he is younger and cheaper, which is why he would cost a hell of a lot more.

Johnson is a long, long way from his .500+ OBP he put up in double A four or five years ago.

Hillenbrand is Joe Carter Lite. One of his main attributes is his ability to stay healthy, just like Joe. The problem with a lot of the players mentioned as superior to Hillenbrand is that yes they do have better numbers than Shea but they can't stay healthy.

I think the Jays with the $3M available to spend should sign Good Fortune to a 3 year $9M deal.

Thanks, Rich for that compelling argument on Nick Johnson. I'm also given to believe the Phillies value Howard way too much.

Maybe we need to compile a list of better options so we can show why they're worse, instead of listening to people moan about how we should've gotten so-and-so

JP was quoted in Blair's column today as saying that probability is important to them, and they feel they know what they will get from Hillenbrand.

""I think that Wilkerson roams the outfield more like a deer than an elk. For the love of God man, the word is ilk.""

Honestly, I'd never seen it spelt. I'll double check next time. It's soulnds more like an 'E' and an 'I'. I guess hooked on phonics doesn't work after all.

So is Koskie and Hillenbrand an improvement over Delgado and Phelps/Zaun/ any other DH?

Have the numbers people around here taken a look at this?

Yesterday I looked at Delgado and 3 replacement level players against Hillenbrand, Koskie, Koch, and Schoeneweis in VORP. The latter group was a little bit better than the former, but it was close. Both groups would be about $13 million in salary next year (assuming Delgado would have been $12).

Delgado and a replacement level DH would be a little higher than Koskie and Hillenbrand, but would also cost more than the Koskie and Hillenbrand by about $3 million.

""Leigh, keep holding people to minimum standards of literacy.""

LOL, Hey I passed my English Language Proficiency exam. However, it seemed very very easy. I also got 86% in OAC english, which I was happy with. Guess I'm just another victim of the spell check generation. I for one am an advocate of adopting a built in spell checker for our comments.

I for one am an advocate of adopting a built in spell checker for our comments.

Those of us running Mac OS X, control-click and select the option "check spelling as you type". Useful feature.

And I just noticed yesterday that "Hillenbrand" is accepted by the OS X spellchecker as a valid word! I haven't been this surprised since I typed "Birkenstock" and OS X suggested that it should be "Birkenstocks".

I for one am an advocate of adopting a built in spell checker for our comments.

I hate spell-checkers and never use them.

Guess I'm just another victim of the spell check generation. I for one am an advocate of adopting a built in spell checker for our comments.

Yes, you poor victim. Please tell me what charity I can donate to to help you through your horrible plight.

Using elk instead of ilk isn't a typo, it's sloppy sloppy writing. Why should anyone bother reading a post that the poster himself can't be bothered to spare a few seconds to review?

Not to make light of typos, but even those spell-checkers have their liabilities. I for one am sick to death of typing "fir" when I really mean "for" and having the spell-checker miss it. I mean, how many references can one make to fir trees? Finally I just removed "fir" from the dictionary. A drastic step, to be sure, but don't worry, environmental (what kind of mint?) types: I recycled it.

Yes, you poor victim. Please tell me what charity I can donate to to help you through your horrible plight.

Using elk instead of ilk isn't a typo, it's sloppy sloppy writing. Why should anyone bother reading a post that the poster himself can't be bothered to spare a few seconds to review?

Because not everyone is a complete ass about it.

Some of us are careful with how we express ourselves in public (which includes on the 'net), and take pride in being able to do so well. Sometimes it gets annoying to see people for whom this isn't important. It's not 'being an ass' to mention it.

Analogy. If one of your friends was out in public wearing a shirt with a big rip in it and food stains all over it, don't you think you might make a comment about it?

But saying that Eric Crozier, Gabe Gross or Josh Phelps are not only better, but clearly better, offensive options for DH than Shea Hillenbrand in 2005 simply does not comport with reality.

The problem with Schoeneweis and Hillenbrand is they have absolutely zero upside. It's a recipe for mediocrity. I don't think any of those guys are sure bets to be better than Hillanbrand, but I think it's likely they'll be at least as good and (one of them in particular) possibly a whole lot better for a whole lot less.

Crozier posted a .266 MjEqA in Buffalo last year. Why on earth would a club with severe salary restrictions pay $2M+ for Hillenbrand's career .262 EqA?

Just because they're freed money with Delgado gone does that mean they have to spend it all now?

According to J.P. Shea is like Geroge Jefferson: He's "moving on up"!

Hey that would be a good song when he comes up to the plate.

Also, if he gets any fatter, we can call in "Weezie"!

I think Mark Twain had it right when he said: "I don't give a damn for a man that can only spell a word one way".

Some of us are careful with how we express ourselves in public (which includes on the 'net), and take pride in being able to do so well. Sometimes it gets annoying to see people for whom this isn't important. It's not 'being an ass' to mention it.

As a former English major and current proofreader, I can certainly appreciate your pride in using proper grammar. However, I still see absolutely no need to go out of one's way to point out, and often in extremely condescending terms, the foibles of other members.

I read and participate in a large number of online 'communities' covering a wide range of subjects. I can honestly say that some members here are by far the most critical and outwardly pretentious group that I have ever encountered.

Taking pride in your grammar is to me, important. Attacking someone else for their use of it, especially on a baseball forum of all places is petty and reeks of pretension.

Fair enough.

Pretentious? Moi?

I can't resist making one more point.

The acquisition of Hillenbrand means that Gabe Gross will not get the PAs needed to find out if he's capable of hitting major league pitching consistently. This is a sink-or-swim year for Gross - he needs to be tested. Gross has some good patience at the plate and some power. Within two years he could hit like Hillenbrand with about 40 extra walks.

Then there is defence, an aspect of this deal that its supporters (or those neutral about it) have not addressed. Gross is very close to being a super defensive leftfielder - he has a heck of an arm and good instincts. Cat, as the regular LF, is a converted infielder in his early 30s with leg problems. Whatever you gain by putting Hillenbrand in the lineup and taking Gross out offensively is offset by the weakening of the defence with Cat instead of Gross in leftfield. That's just this year. With the expected improvement of Gross's hitting in 2006 (if he were allowed 500 PA this year) versus Hillenbrand's expected decline in 2006 due to age, this deal harms the team for next year by slowing down Gross's development as a hitter. It might be even worse than that: Hillenbrand might stay with the Jays for 2006 and earn over 6 million in arbitration for his production if the Jays don't cut bait on him.

It looks to me like the organisation has completely soured on Gross and the Hillenbrand acquisition is the nail in the coffin for Gabe as a Blue Jay. That's a shame, as I was optimistic that Gross could provide cheap production for years to come. He's not exactly the most marketable commodity, so I'll be surprised if the Jays get anything substantial for him when they trade Gross later this year.

As a former English major ...

Sorry, Braden, this is like being an alcoholic: one can't be a "former" English major. Once an English major, always one. You can be a recovering English major, that is fine, but former? I wish!

Jurgen, good points about upside, etc. etc. etc., but I would not say that Josh Phelps has any upside at this point.

Robert, just because Gross starts the season at Syracuse doesn't mean he won't get another shot. The chances of all of Hinske, Hillenbrand,and Catalanotto staying both healthy and Blue Jays until August is remote IMHO.

Scary, Gitz. That's almost word for word what I was going to write about "recovering English majors."

some members here are by far the most critical and outwardly pretentious group that I have ever encountered.

I, personally, am much more inwardly pretentious. People who are only outwardly pretentious are really just sort of pretendtious.

Larry,

I'm saying Gross need 500 PA - at least. It's pretty hard to do that if you spend a month or more in the minors.

Barring any more trades, where do you see Gross getting playing time in 2005?

LF - Catalanotto
DH - Hillenbrand
1B - Hinske
3B - Koskie

If Gross goes to LF, then Cat either goes to DH or the bench. I just don't see Gabe Gross starting the season anywhere but AAA. Because it would be silly to leave Gross on the bench, right?

Sorry Robert, I skimmed over the word "not" in your large post above. You're right, he won't get many MLB PAs this season. Definitely not as many as I'd like.

Nick Johnson is overrated, period:

.255 .372 .418 in 1020 major league at-bats. He is also injury-prone and would cost Alex Rios to acquire. In the past 3 years his OPS is exactly .008 better than Hillenbrand's and the latter is healthy and only cost Adam Peterson.

You're right that Johnson would cost Rios but he is definitly not overated,

The problem with evaluating with OPS is that SLG% blows as a stat.
If you get on base through only walks you slg is 0, if you do it by singles your slg% is your batting avg.
Both these hitters who only single or walk (never hit for power) would have (vastly) different slugging %'s.

Hillendrand hit's for a high avg, so his SLG is inflated, Johnson has a pretty good slug despite his low batting avg.

A much better stats is ISO power ( SLUGGING minus AVERAGE )

On the whole, Nick Johnson gets on-base a lot more and hits for more power. Look at wilkerson to, he is underated for exactly the same reason.

I wonder if Toronto would pack the Skydome if the Jays were a playoff contending team?

Absolutely. People like winning. When the Jays start winning, people will like the Jays. IMO there's a decent amount of Jay coverage, especially coming off a last place year.

There's a lot of Blue Jays fans and baseball fans in general at my school, here in Mississauga. Once you look past all the Yankee hats (that seem to be the trend, not the team) you'll find that there's alot of people who could potentially become Jay fans should they win. Not to say that everyone's walking around in Blue Jay hats, but people around like them, and baseball as well.

Robert, you make an important point about Gross. The Jays brass's M.O. doesn't seem to be about trying young players out at the big-league level, though -- witness last year's diet of Berg and Clark. Rios and Adams played because they were given permanent promotions.

At least now, if Gross doesn't win the job, he can be replaced by something above replacement level in the batting order.

I wonder if Toronto would pack the Skydome if the Jays were a playoff contending team?

Not only will it be packed, it will be packed with fans who claim to be lifelong fans of the team, who were nowhere to be seen in the Dome this year and called the FAN asking for Gillick to return.

""Guess I'm just another victim of the spell check generation. I for one am an advocate of adopting a built in spell checker for our comments.

Yes, you poor victim. Please tell me what charity I can donate to to help you through your horrible plight.

Using elk instead of ilk isn't a typo, its sloppy writing. Why should anyone bother reading a post that the poster himself can't be bothered to spare a few seconds to review?""

COMN for my email. I'll send my bank information on the ASAP.

I never said "Elk" was a typo. I promptly mentioned that I was unsure how to spell it. Had my posts not been at 2:30 in the morning on a school night, I most certainly would have taken a second or two to perform a check on the net. Next time I will be sure to express myself with more care, as to not rile up some of the more anal posters.

That said, if I was reading a post, and it had both 1) a spelling mistake, and 2) a good point. I would not let the first over shadow the second. The ability to think critically about baseball and the ability to spell are two unrelated skills. I visit, read and post on this site for the thoughts, not the spelling. If spelling was higher on my list of interests, surely Dictionary.com would be my home page, and not BBox.

Go Jays.

A much better stats is ISO power ( SLUGGING minus AVERAGE )

On the whole, Nick Johnson gets on-base a lot more and hits for more power. Look at wilkerson to, he is underated for exactly the same reason.

Johnson's career ISO: .163
Hillenbrand's career ISO: .160

Mike D,

If it were up to me, 2005 would be to Gabe Gross what 2004 was to Rios: a chance to sink or swim. The Jays HAVE shown the willingness to give long-term looks to their young hitters. Hinske, Phelps and Hudson all played regularly when they came up and were not farmed when they hit a dryspell. That is undoubtedly the right approach for a team trying to build from within.

Unfortunately, for some reason unfathomable to me, the Jays decided to NOT give Gross that chance and instead will spend 4-5 million dollars for a player who will be asked to do a job they already had filled (I speak of FCat and DHing), pushing that player to the outfield and pushing Gross out of the picture.

Suppose they had done it like I suggested and Gross turned out to be a pretty good player, at least as good as Hillenbrand overall this season. They would have saved themselves 4 million dollars, AND had found another of the 15 or so pieces to an future championship team, at BELOW MARKET VALUE for the next several years.

There is just no way this move moves the Jays closer to a championship team and it quite possibly has hurt their chances by denying Gross a chance to be one of those championship puzzle pieces.

Wow, it's taken a long time to go through all these postings. I just don't understand J.P. Here. As others have said, why didn't the Jays just keep Phelps? Phelps Careers OPS is .818 and Hillenbrand's is .770. Hillenbrand is 3 years older and makes more money, and they had to give up someone to get him. THe Werth for Fraser trade isn't looking so hot right now either as Werth would be a great fit at DH. The only big upside of this trade is if he hits really well (which is, at least, superficially possible) and then the Jays can trade him for a good prospect or two to a contender at the deadline. The Jays IMO have two kinds of players they should go for. 1) They are in a position where their DH should be a Bucky Jacobson, Craig Monroe kind of guy. They're not going to win, so give someone who you pay very little money to a shot. 2) Let young guys play and see what they can do.

Ok Im not a huge fan of the Hillenbrand trade either but please I wish people would stop dragging Josh Phelps into it. Last year he couldnt hit RHP at all, period. He doesnt play a position in the field, his OPs has declined nearly 100 pts for two years in a row, and I believe he was going to arbitration. Toronto was not the only franchise to give up on Phelps last year.

Though Robert calls the need for a righthanded bat a red herring, I don't buy it at all.

My god you people have short memories. Does anyone remember the stellar lineups the Jays fielded against LHP over the last few years? Lineups that featured names like Dave Berg and Chris Gomez at places other than 2B and SS?

As a thought experiment, let's assume the Jays decided not to sign Hillenbrand, and decided to go with Gross in LF and Cat as the DH.

Against RHP, the lineup looks fine:

1B - Hinske (L)
2B - Hudson (S)
SS - Adams (L)
3B - Koskie (L)
LF - Gross (L)
CF - Wells (R)
RF - Rios (R)
C - Myers (L)
DH - Cat (L)

However, things start to really break down when playing against a lefthanded starter. Cat has problems against LHP. Koskie gives up around 200 points of OPS against LHP. Gross needs a platoon partner to ease his transition into the majors. Adams will sit against tough lefties. Hinske, surprisingly enough, hit better against lefties than righties last year, so I guess he plays most of the time.

So what happens when the Yankees come to town and we face Randy Johnson:

1B - Hinske (L)
2B - Hudson (S)
SS - McDonald (R)
3B - Menechino (R)
LF - Johnson (R)
CF - Wells (R)
RF - Rios (R)
C - Zaun
DH - ???

That lineup screams for a righthanded bat to DH. Maybe Hillenbrand is not the perfect solution, but the situation demanded something, and at least the choice is logical and defensible. Even someone like Josh Phelps for 500K would not have been a bad solution. But standing pat would have been completely idiotic.

How many more games are you going to win against Randy Johnson by having Hillenbrand in that lineup instead of Koskie?

It may be news to you, but there aren't many lefthanded starters in the AL East. We're not expecting to be contenders so even if we lose 1 extra game (and I doubt it would be that much) against David Wells/Randy Johnson, is it really a big deal?

Sir, I ask that you revisit the equation to include the greatness of John Halama.

It may be news to you, but there aren't many lefthanded starters in the AL East. We're not expecting to be contenders so even if we lose 1 extra game (and I doubt it would be that much) against David Wells/Randy Johnson, is it really a big deal?

Yes.

It is dumb to have a lineup that can be completely neutralized by left handed pitching.

The Jays had nearly 30% of their AB against LHP last year, and that was before David Wells and RJ joined our division.

And as far as entertainment value is concerned, there's a huge difference between just lying down and dying and actually putting up a fight.

Mick, you realize this obsession with Halama is unhealthy. I mean, part of me -- the logical part -- makes me think you're joshing. But gosh darn it, that passionate part of me -- regrettably, the larger part of me -- thinks you're serious. Which is it, my good man? I'm dying over here!

It is dumb to have a lineup that can be completely neutralized by left handed pitching.

If you get a better hitter than Hillenbrand, your OVERALL production is going to go up, plain and simple. Whatever little bit you lose against lefties will be more than offset by better hitting against righthanders.

A lot of lefthanders a team faces are relief pitchers (proportionally, I mean). And since you have Menechino and Johnson available to pinch hit, I don't see that as a particular problem.

And Randy Johnson has the ability to destroy all-righthanded lineups - I've seen him do it many times.

It looks to me like the organisation has completely soured on Gross and the Hillenbrand acquisition is the nail in the coffin for Gabe as a Blue Jay.

I think you are over-dramatizing the club's stance on Gross. If he goes out and dominates AAA pitching, I seriously doubt they will hold him back. I'm certain that the Jays are looking for specific benchmarks or behaviour from Gross. If he meets those expectations, they'll call him up.

I don't think that JP has lost sight of the fact that Shea is 30 this year and may not be around longer than one season. I'm sure he would have no qualms about turning that into half a season (i.e. trade) if one of the kids shows that they're ready.

My opinion of the acquisition hasn't changed: JP cited a lack of players who could competently handle major league pitching in last year's lineup. Hillenbrand can handle the stick and has shown consistency. A career .288 hitter who doesn't walk but also doesn't K much isn't AMAZING but also isn't the worst thing in the world.

I certainly wouldn't consider ANY prospect "blocked".

Which is it, my good man? I'm dying over here!

Gitz, pal, if I told you I was serious, you'd wonder if I was joshing about that. And if I told you I was joshing, you'd never take me seriously. So -- English major pun alert -- you can see that I'm in a major-major Catch-22.

Just remember, the first three letters of my last name are "Doh!"

It took me four years to be right about Doug Davis. You'll all look back on these conversations with awe as Halama accepts the 2006 Cy Young Award, follwing up on his '05 Andujar.

I think you are over-dramatizing the club's stance on Gross.

I don't think so. The club has been known to sour on a player and then dump him in trade (Werth, Phelps).

Gross doesn't need AAA seasoning. He's 25 years old and he's played 156 games with Syracuse and put up a .381 OBP doing so with 84 walks/137 strikeouts and 63 XBH in 559 AB. Sending him back there would prove nothing; lots of hitters have been "permanently" promoted with less impressive AAA credentials.

Gross needs to be a full-time major leaguer in 2005 and it doesn't appear to me that the Jays will give him that chance. I can't see how Gross with get 500+ PA this year, which is what I mean by full-time.

Took me a while to read through all the posts since my last post... Robert Dudek, I agree with absolutely everything you have said!

Gross needs to be a full-time major leaguer in 2005 and it doesn't appear to me that the Jays will give him that chance.

Yeah, I don't understand how Gross, who hit .294/.381/.454 in Syracuse this year, isn't ready for a full-time job, but Rios (.259/.292/.373) was.

What about Rios' monster 2003 season, you ask? He had a 923 OPS to Gross' 904. And you could argue Gross had the better year overall. In fact, I will argue that, since it was true. Gross had the better OBP, better BB/K ratio, and he held his own in Syracuse that year as well.

Now, this is not a knock against Alex Rios by any means. But if he's ready for a full season in right field, Gabe Gross is definitely ready for a full season in left.

Is it time to start the FREE GABE GROSS campaign?

I can't see how Gross with get 500+ PA this year, which is what I mean by full-time.

Not to defend this move, but Rios had only 429 PA last season. If Gross could get something around that this year, to add to the 129 PA he had last year, what is so bad about that?

Yeah, I don't understand how Gross, who hit .294/.381/.454 in Syracuse this year, isn't ready for a full-time job, but Rios (.259/.292/.373) was.

I thought it was because Gross was injured at the time and the Jays were *desperate* for an outfielder. I seem to remember JP bluntly saying that they didnt want Rios in the majors yet, but they really had no other choice.

I thought it was because Gross was injured at the time and the Jays were *desperate* for an outfielder.

That explains why Rios was called up in May instead of Gross, which isn't my point. Gross isn't injured now. He's perfectly capable of playing left field.

---
FREE GABE GROSS

I thought it was because Gross was injured at the time and the Jays were *desperate* for an outfielder.

Gross was only DHing at the time. Plus they needed a RH bat and that would be Rios.

You guys have been talking about Gabe here, but since the thread is about the Adam Peterson trade, I'll voice my opinion here. I don't like it. They gave up too early on Adam. I know Adam personally, and I don't think in 2004 he was treated very fairly (from the start of Spring Training to the end of the season) by the Blue Jays. He has a lot of drive and is easily motivated, however, he is a very emotional and intense person. I think it all came too fast last year for him, and he wasn't ready for it. He's the type of person who plans for things and performs better if he has a known path.

A couple of years ago when he was in Double A and he was over the house for dinner, he pulled a baseball card of himself out of his wallet - it was him when he was like 7 or 8 years old and in Little League. He keeps it there to remind him of his childhood dream - to be a Major League Baseball Player. I know he will succeed.

I'm sure Adam Peterson will be a quality Major Leaguer...and he's got the stuff to be a dominant closer. However, you have to give something to get something. I know people here would love to trade Kerry Ligtenberg for Johan Santana, but that's not going to happen.

Hillenbrand will bolster the offence and will give JP a bit more depth in being able to dump Hinske if deal comes up (enter Aaron Hill). If the Jays have a surplus of something, it's good young arms coming up through the system. You have to deal from a position of strength...which they did.

The problem with Schoeneweis and Hillenbrand is they have absolutely zero upside. It's a recipe for mediocrity.


People seem a little down in the dumps about the Schoeneweis trade, and yes it's a lot of -- and possibly far too much -- money to pay for someone who's one skill is getting left hand batters out. But here's a silver lining:

2004: 584 OPS against in 86AB versus lefties
Three Year split: 588 OPS against in 334AB versus lefties

No mediocrity in those statistics, folks. You want a reliever who will actually get people out? You got one.