Curious about the best bullpen arms in Japan? Well I was, so I decided to try to find out who they were. I examine some good arms that could be appearing in the majors in the next few years, and I also quickly look at Denny Tomori, who was rumoured to be linked to the Jays a few weeks ago.
Clearing the Ayers: Japan’s Best Relievers
In my previous article I talked about the unexpected success of Akinori Otsuka and Skingo Takatsu, and compared them to other Japanese relievers who had made the transition to the majors, from the success of Kaz Sasaki to the relative failure of Masao Kida or Saturo Komiyama.
Just to recall the last article, here are the summaries of the three successful Japanese relievers (Shigetoshi Hasegawa has been omitted due to the time he spent as a starter in Japan):
The average line shows the average of the cumulative stats of those three relievers, divided by three (as the innings pitched totals were relatively close). All numbers were rounded up or down except for innings pitched and ratio stats. That will serve as our baseline for use when analysing the top relievers in Japan. I’ve identified seven relievers in Japan whose stats looked particularly impressive, and I’ve also included an eighth reliever who was recently linked to the Blue Jays in a rumour in the Toronto Sun.
When considering the best players in a foreign league, which applies predominantly to players in Japan’s NPB for the time being, it’s important to consider personal characteristics, as it is with prospects and major leaguers themselves. As I wrote about in the last article, it’s a waste of money if you buy a player from Japan who has little desire to play in America. One needs to consider the roots that the player’s desire to play in the United States stems from, whether it’s money or a desire to prove they can pitch successfully in the best baseball league in the world. One also needs to consider if they have a family; whether that family is coming to America or staying in Japan and whether they seem likely to be able to adjust to the culture shock and similar issues.
Many players, like Ichiro or some of the relievers discussed above, appear to have adjusted successfully. However, other players have had problems, most noticeably Hideki Irabu, as Coach pointed out. Another good example may be the issues Jose Contreras’ had with getting his family over to the United States, and whether that impacted his performance Several American players who have gone to Japan have had problems adjusting, and there’s no reason it doesn’t apply to Japanese players coming across to America. A team must take into consideration character issues if they are going to invest a million or several million dollars on a player who has never pitched in America.
Now, it’s time to look at the top relievers in Japan. I’ve only included relievers who have shown several years of good ability, so any rookies or second-year players who have shown talent have not been included yet, as I wanted to limit it to those who have shown sustained success. For these relievers I’ve included the stats for their last three years in the NPB as best I know them, although I make no claims to their complete accuracy. In addition to the stats, I’ve listed their age as of opening day 2005 and then I’ve included a brief write-up of each pitcher. They are listed in no particular order.
Yoshinori Tateyama, Nippon Ham Fighters, 29, RHP
2004: 1-3, 2.33 ERA, 41 G, 46.1 IP, 39 HA, 12 ER, 4 HR, 7 BB, 39 K
2003: 2-1, 2.17 ERA, 32 G, 37.1 IP, 24 HA, 9 ER, 5 HR, 4 BB, 31 K
2002: 3-2, 2.29 ERA, 45 G, 59 IP, 40 HA, 15 ER, 7 HR, 13 BB, 41 K
Totals: 6-6, 2.27 ERA, 118 G, 142.2 IP, 103 HA, 36 ER, 16 HR, 24 BB, 111 K
6.50 H/9, 7.00 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9, 4.63 K/BB, (5 UER in 2004, 1 in 2002)
Yoshinori Tateyama, born on Boxing Day, has pitched for the Nippon Ham Fighters for the past six years. After a good 1999, a sub par 2000 and an injury-filled 2001 Tateyama has put together three good years in a row. Tateyama doesn’t surrender many hits, as his H/9 ratio is right at the “Established Average” (EA). His walk rate is low, but so is his strikeout rate, leaving his K/BB rate right at the EA.
However, I’d be a bit more hesitant if someone whose strikeout rate is low would stand as much chance to succeed as someone with a high strikeout rate, but with a similar K/BB. If the strikeout numbers drop it’ll be a lot less damaging with a low walk total. While Takatsu’s numbers in Japan weren’t that impressive, both Sasaki and Otsuka had impressive numbers before succeeding in the majors; whereas a pitcher like Komiyama, who relied upon control, struggled when he tried to adjust to the majors. He’s certainly a fine pitcher to take a chance on if the price is right and I wouldn’t be overly hesitant with him, but it’s something to keep in mind.
Hirotoshii Ishii, Yakult Swallows, 27, LHP
2004: 4-2, 2.05 ERA, 38 G, 52.2 IP, 38 HA, 12 ER, 5 HR, 10 BB, 69 K
2003: 6-1, 1.99 ERA, 36 G, 45.1 IP, 37 HA, 10 ER, 4 HR, 10 BB, 61 K
2002: 6-2, 1.51 ERA, 69 G, 89.2 IP, 63 HA, 15 ER, 7 HR, 12 BB, 109 K
TOTALS: 14-5, 1.77 ERA, 143 G, 187.2 IP, 138 HA, 37 ER, 19 HR, 32 BB, 239 K
6.62 H/9, 11.46 K/9, 1.53 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 7.47 K/BB
This southpaw pitched 10 innings in 1996 and 1997, and then became a full-time pitcher in the NPB in 1999. After a poor ’99 season, he turned into a good reliever in 2000. Ishii really turned a corner in 2002, as he became one of the best relievers in Japan. Only 27, Ishii had two seasons of ERAs under 2, and then he just rose above that mark this year. Those ERA figures aren’t inflated either, as Ishii hasn’t allowed an unearned run in the last three years, although he allowed 8 in 2001. His rate states, save hits per 9 innings, are all better than the EA, and they closely resemble Akinori Otsuka’s with a small drop in the K rate. Given Ishii’s recent dominance, he is one of the best bets in a Japanese bullpen for success in the majors.
In the 2003 off-season Nippon Sports reported that Ishii wanted to be posted to the majors after the 2004 season. However, that article also included speculation that the Swallows might try to prevent that, given Takatsu’s posting to the majors, especially if third baseman Akinori Iwamura is also posted following the 2004 season.
Ryota Igarashi, Yakult Swallows, 25, RHP
2004: 5-3, 2.66 ERA, 66 G, 74.1 IP, 57 HA, 22 ER, 9 HR, 36 BB, 86 K
2003: 5-5, 3.89 ERA, 66 G, 74 IP, 60 HA, 32 ER, 9 HR, 33 BB, 83 K
2002: 8-2, 2.08 ERA, 64 G, 78 IP, 49 HA, 18 ER, 8 HR, 18 BB, 97 K
TOTALS: 18-10, 2.86 ERA, 196 G, 226 .1 IP, 166 HA, 72 ER, 26 HR, 87 BB, 266 K
6.60 H/9, 10.58 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9, 3.06 K/BB, (2 UER in 2004, 1 in 2003, 1 in 2002)
The Yakult Swallows have a good relief core, and Ryota Igarashi is an important part of the bullpen. Igarashi usually puts up a low ERA and strikes out many batters; however he has really struggled with his control most of his career, 2002 being the notable exception. In terms of hits and home runs allowed, Igarashi is close to the EA and shows good signs, but no dominance.
Igarashi is the typical fireballer who doesn’t always know where he’s throwing. He’s tied for the record for the fastest pitch in Japan with Hideki Irabu and Kazuo Yamaguchi, clocking a heater at 158 kph (98.75 mph). He officially achieved the record on June 3, 2004 in the bottom of the 9th against Makoto Imaoka of the Hanshin Tigers. Consistently throwing near 99 mph doesn’t seem to be a problem for Igarashi as he hit 158 kph with three pitches in a row on September 20th vs. Hanshin. As he’s only 25, Igarashi could well become the first Japanese pitcher to clock 100. It’d be quite interesting to see how he did in the majors with his blazing fastball.
Shinji Mori, Seibu Lions, 30, RHP
2004: 0-4, 4.59 ERA, 34 G, 49 IP, 50 IP, 25 ER, 5 HR, 38 BB, 49 K
2003: 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 61 G, 70 IP, 55 HA, 18 ER, 6 HR, 22 BB, 92 K
2002: 6-7, 2.07 ERA, 71 G, 78.1 IP, 61 HA, 18 ER, 4 HR, 29 BB, 102 K
TOTALS: 13-14, 2.78 ERA, 166 G, 197.1 IP, 166 HA, 61 ER, 15 HR, 89 BB, 243 K
7.57 H/9, 11.08 K/9, 4.06 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9, 2.73 K/BB, (10 UER in 2004, 1 in 2003, 7 in 2002)
Mori had a bad 2004, which was even worse than it looked at he allowed ten unearned runs for a 6.43 RAA. That gives Mori an almost unheard of, for a reliever, 18 unearned runs allowed over three years. Another warning sign surrounding Mori is his high walk rate, which gives him a K/BB ratio under 3. Mori’s not all bad news, as his low HR/9 ratio helps to minimise damage he does to himself through his walks allowed. Furthermore, his K/9 ratio would be 11.77 if 2004 wasn’t considered. 2004 also misleadingly bumped up his walk rate, which was 2.87 (high, but not worrisome like 4.06) from 2000-2003. He throws a fastball that apparently only reaches 90 mph on most days, but he has also has a forkball with a sharp drop.
In some ways Mori looks like a pitcher whose numbers hide some troubling stats, while in others he looks like someone whose 2004 is going to drag down his price more than he deserves. He’s someone worth taking a chance on if the price is minimal, which it might well be after last year. Obviously, if I was going to sign him I’d try to get extensive reports from Japanese executives and players as to what his trouble was in 2004 and whether it could be a sign of decline in any way.
Kiyoshi Toyoda, Seibu Lions, 34, RHP
2004: 5-1, 0.98 ERA, 34 G, 36.2 IP, 26 HA, 4 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 39 K
2003: 2-3, 1.24 ERA, 58 G, 58 IP, 37 HA, 8 ER, 2 HR, 9 BB, 54 K
2002: 6-1, 0.79 ERA, 57 G, 57.1IP, 32 HA, 5 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 66 K
Totals: 13-5, 1.01 ERA, 149 G, 152 IP, 95 HA, 17 ER, 4 HR, 17 BB, 159 K
5.63 H/9, 9.41 K/9, 1.01 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9, 9.35 K/BB, (1 UER in 2004)
Toyoda has been an extremely solid force out of the Seibu bullpen for many years, but he’s turned a corner over the last three years. Toyoda doesn’t quite strike out as many batters as the established average, but he’s not far behind with a K rate that still exceeds one an inning. However, with regards to his other ratios he noticeably exceeds the average, especially with regards to walks and home runs allowed. Toyoda’s HR allowed rate is 26.39% of the average of the previously successful relievers, and his BB/9 ratio is 44.44% of the EA. Plus, his K rate is still 90.66% of the EA.
Toyoda is one of the best relievers in Japan, and looks like a very good bet for success in the majors. He bears a rough resemblance to Otsuka, and Otsuka has adapted to the major leagues very well. Even though the strikeout numbers aren’t as outstanding as Sasaki or Otsuka, they’re still quite good and his other numbers are outstanding. A team would be foolish to pass him up given the opportunity to acquire him.
Hitoki Iwase, Chunichi Dragons, 30, LHP
2004: 2-3, 2.80 ERA, 60 G, 64.1 IP, 53 HA, 20 ER, 4 HR, 14 BB, 53 K
2003: 5-2, 1.41 ERA, 58 G, 63.2 IP, 47 HA, 10 ER, 3 HR, 12 BB, 61 K
2002: 4-2, 1.06 ERA, 52 G, 59.2 IP, 38 HA, 7 ER, 2 HR, 15 BB, 66 K
TOTALS: 11-7, 1.77 ERA, 170 G, 187.2 IP, 138 HA, 37 ER, 9 HR, 41 BB, 180 K
6.61 H/9, 8.63 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, 4.39 K/BB, (1 UER in 2002)
Iwase is part of a strong Chunichi bullpen, and the second southpaw on this list. He doesn’t strike out as many batters as the previously successful relievers, but his other ratios are all better than average, although only by miniscule amounts in two cases. Iwase has a better chance for success than some with lower strikeout numbers, as his control is consistently good and he keeps the ball in the ballpark.
He could make a valuable addition for a team in search of a left-handed reliever in their bullpen if Ishii is not posted or signs with another different major league team. Iwase still has a number of good years in front of him, and with fairly good control he can likely survive without the stuff that some of the other relievers on this list appear to possess.
Masataka Endoh, Chunichi Dragons, 32, RHP
2004: 1-0, 7.01 ERA, 22 G, 25.2 IP, 26 HA, 20 ER, 11 HR, 9 BB, 30 K
2003: 2-2, 2.83 ERA, 34 G, 41.1 IP, 33 HA, 13 ER (1 UER), 5 HR, 14 BB, 41 K
2002: 4-2, 3.14 ERA, 57 G, 71.2 IP, 61 HA, 25 ER (1 UER), 9 HR, 18 BB, 77 K
TOTALS: 7-4, 3.76 ERA, 113 G, 138.2 IP, 120 HA, 58 ER, 25 HR, 41 BB, 148 K
7.79 H/9, 9.61 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 1.62 HR/9, 3.61 K/BB, (1 UER in 2003 and 2002)
Masataka Endoh (I've seen his surname listed without the "h" sometimes, but I'm assuming the above spelling is correct) had a nice three years prior to this year, where the wheels fell off. I don’t know enough about the NPB to speculate as to why Masataka pitched so poorly this year. Was it just a case of a lot of bad bounces? Did he struggle with a nagging injury, explaining the drop innings pitched? Did he look healthy and the Chunichi coaching staff can’t explain it either?
Masataka’s numbers, even before the 2004 season, weren’t among the best but he was right at the top of the second tier of relievers. He’s right in the middle of his career, but I can’t really add a lot without knowing more about the nature of his struggles this year.
Denny Tomori, Yokohama Bay Stars, 37, RHP
2004: 0-1, 4.62 ERA, 21 G, 25.1 IP, 30 H, 13 ER (2 UER), 7 HR, 4 BB, 24 K
2003: 1-8, 4.40 ERA, 52 G, 47 IP, 49 H, 23 ER (1 UER), 5 HR, 11 BB, 47 K
2002: 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 2 G, 3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K*
2001: 1-2, 3.83 ERA, 54 G, 51.2 IP, 38 H, 22 ER (2 UER), 8 HR, 23 BB, 53 K
TOTALS: 2-11, 4.20 ERA, 127 G, 124 IP, 117 H, 58 ER, 20 HR, 38 BB, 124 K
8.49 H/9, 9.00 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9, 3.26 K/BB, (2 UER in 2004 and 2001, 1 UER in 2003)
For Yui “Denny” Tomori I didn’t include his 2002 when calculating his totals. This is the player that was linked to the Blue Jays in an article in the Sun a few weeks ago. He isn’t the best reliever on this list, not by a longshot. However, as I’ll get into in a bit more detail below, he may be one of the only ones who are available, and maybe the Jays expect the price of the others to exceed what they can afford to spend on an untested relief arm.
Tomori’s stats by themselves don’t really stand up to any of the other arms listed here. However, Shingo Takatsu proved that sometimes mediocre Japanese numbers can turn into good major league ones. Plus, Tomori is a submariner, which compares well to Takatsu’s deceptive sidearm. If the reports from the Sun are true, it’s likely the Jays hope the submarine arm angle will give major league hitters trouble for a year or two, at which point Tomori would be at about the end of his career anyway. Still, he wouldn’t be the first option I would go after, and I wouldn’t recommend the Jays sign him unless they’d exhausted some of the other options above.
Now, all of this is moot if the players can’t join the major leagues. Basically, as far as I understand it, the rules for Japanese players leaving to play in the majors are as follows (please correct me if I’m wrong, btw). If the player is a free agent he is free to sign with any team on November 6th, this includes either Japanese teams or major league teams. Of the pitchers listed above it seems as if Tomori is a free agent (although I’ve seen conflicting reports, most say he is) , but none of the rest appear to be free agents from anything I’ve come across. If the player is not a free agent, he may file a notice with MLB that he’d like to play in the majors. This allows any club interested in him to place bids on the rights to negotiate with the player. The player’s Japanese team selects the winning bid, and then allows the player to negotiate with the major league team and sign a contract if they so choose. I presume Japanese teams can not accept any bid, and can keep a player who has expressed a desire to play in the majors, but I don’t think this is common, and probably not particularly desirable to keep an unhappy body around.
So, what does this mean for the Blue Jays? Well, I’d rank the eight relievers in the following non-scientific order:
1. Toyoda
2. Ishii
3. Iwase
4. Tateyama
5. Igarashi
6. Mori
7. Endoh
8. Tomori
I strongly feel like any of the top four names could become an impact reliever in a major league bullpen. Igarashi could turn the corner with a bit better location, but if he loses a couple of mph on his fastball he could become eminently more hittable. Mori’s the best of the last three relievers, but both he and Masataka have question marks surrounding them after their 2004. If any of the top four posted themselves to the majors I’d encourage the Jays to put in serious bids for them. Toyoda could become an excellent setup man and after Doug Creek, Jason Kershner and Valerio de los Santos, I’d love to have Hirotoshi Ishii be our left-handed setup man for the next few years. As stated above, both Iwase and Tateyama would also make fine additions to a bullpen.
Over at the Hardball Times Craig asked about potential World Cup teams for each nation. Well, I’ll conclude this article by looking quickly at the Japan’s potential bullpen for the tournament.
Bullpens for such international tournaments are hard to predict, as you often might end up with two or three starters who didn’t make the rotation in the bullpen. Despite that I think that Ishii and Toyoda are locks for the Japanese bullpen, or are as close to locks as you can have for a tournament that is still 18 months away. Both of them post ridiculous numbers and have for several years in a row, demonstrating consistent talent with no signs of decline. Go look again at Toyoda’s K/BB ratio or HR/9, or at Ishii’s strikeouts. Ishii would be a formidable force against Larry Walker, Barry Bonds, Carlos Delgado and all the other left-handed sluggers and Toyodo would be one of the best setup men or closers in the tournament.
I’d say Iwase and Tateyama are very close to being locks as their numbers are in the next tier, not quite as good as the first two but still solidly above everyone else I’ve encountered. A poor year or two might hurt them more, as with the potential of a couple of starters in the bullpen, a good year by Igarashi or another reliever might knock one of them out. I’d lay solid money on at least one of the pair showing up at the tournament.
Igarashi is a leading candidate for a fifth reliever’s slot. His age and speed are a dangerous combination and similar results to what he’s done previously will help his chances, as people tend to go with firepower in a tossup. Mori and Masataka are question marks at this point, and I think Tomori will be too old, or just not good enough at that point to make the club. Other candidates to keep an eye for the last couple of spots include Shinya Okamoto (only been in the NPB for two seasons effectively, or else he’d have made the article; he’s probably the best bet of people not covered in this article), Yukinaga Maeda (good consistency, but he’s aging and the peripherals are never anything special), Koji Mise (no stats on the page; recent draftee who closed for the Fukoka Daiei Hawks this year and had a 3.06 ERA with good peripherals) and Ryu Kawabata (good numbers, just nothing outstanding). Additionally, as stated before, leftover starters who don’t make the rotation may get a place or two in the bullpen. However, the frontline of this bullpen looks very good with Otsuka, Toyoda and Ishii, and probably Iwase and Tateyama not far behind.
Clearing the Ayers: Japan’s Best Relievers
In my previous article I talked about the unexpected success of Akinori Otsuka and Skingo Takatsu, and compared them to other Japanese relievers who had made the transition to the majors, from the success of Kaz Sasaki to the relative failure of Masao Kida or Saturo Komiyama.
Just to recall the last article, here are the summaries of the three successful Japanese relievers (Shigetoshi Hasegawa has been omitted due to the time he spent as a starter in Japan):
Player IP H HR BB K H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Takatsu 135.1 128 16 45 93 8.51 6.18 2.99 1.06
Otsuka 141.1 95 15 23 192 6.05 12.22 1.46 0.95
Sasaki 139.1 76 11 36 211 4.91 13.63 2.33 0.71
Average 138.2 100 14 35 165 6.49 10.71 2.27 0.91
The average line shows the average of the cumulative stats of those three relievers, divided by three (as the innings pitched totals were relatively close). All numbers were rounded up or down except for innings pitched and ratio stats. That will serve as our baseline for use when analysing the top relievers in Japan. I’ve identified seven relievers in Japan whose stats looked particularly impressive, and I’ve also included an eighth reliever who was recently linked to the Blue Jays in a rumour in the Toronto Sun.
When considering the best players in a foreign league, which applies predominantly to players in Japan’s NPB for the time being, it’s important to consider personal characteristics, as it is with prospects and major leaguers themselves. As I wrote about in the last article, it’s a waste of money if you buy a player from Japan who has little desire to play in America. One needs to consider the roots that the player’s desire to play in the United States stems from, whether it’s money or a desire to prove they can pitch successfully in the best baseball league in the world. One also needs to consider if they have a family; whether that family is coming to America or staying in Japan and whether they seem likely to be able to adjust to the culture shock and similar issues.
Many players, like Ichiro or some of the relievers discussed above, appear to have adjusted successfully. However, other players have had problems, most noticeably Hideki Irabu, as Coach pointed out. Another good example may be the issues Jose Contreras’ had with getting his family over to the United States, and whether that impacted his performance Several American players who have gone to Japan have had problems adjusting, and there’s no reason it doesn’t apply to Japanese players coming across to America. A team must take into consideration character issues if they are going to invest a million or several million dollars on a player who has never pitched in America.
Now, it’s time to look at the top relievers in Japan. I’ve only included relievers who have shown several years of good ability, so any rookies or second-year players who have shown talent have not been included yet, as I wanted to limit it to those who have shown sustained success. For these relievers I’ve included the stats for their last three years in the NPB as best I know them, although I make no claims to their complete accuracy. In addition to the stats, I’ve listed their age as of opening day 2005 and then I’ve included a brief write-up of each pitcher. They are listed in no particular order.
Yoshinori Tateyama, Nippon Ham Fighters, 29, RHP
2004: 1-3, 2.33 ERA, 41 G, 46.1 IP, 39 HA, 12 ER, 4 HR, 7 BB, 39 K
2003: 2-1, 2.17 ERA, 32 G, 37.1 IP, 24 HA, 9 ER, 5 HR, 4 BB, 31 K
2002: 3-2, 2.29 ERA, 45 G, 59 IP, 40 HA, 15 ER, 7 HR, 13 BB, 41 K
Totals: 6-6, 2.27 ERA, 118 G, 142.2 IP, 103 HA, 36 ER, 16 HR, 24 BB, 111 K
6.50 H/9, 7.00 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9, 4.63 K/BB, (5 UER in 2004, 1 in 2002)
Yoshinori Tateyama, born on Boxing Day, has pitched for the Nippon Ham Fighters for the past six years. After a good 1999, a sub par 2000 and an injury-filled 2001 Tateyama has put together three good years in a row. Tateyama doesn’t surrender many hits, as his H/9 ratio is right at the “Established Average” (EA). His walk rate is low, but so is his strikeout rate, leaving his K/BB rate right at the EA.
However, I’d be a bit more hesitant if someone whose strikeout rate is low would stand as much chance to succeed as someone with a high strikeout rate, but with a similar K/BB. If the strikeout numbers drop it’ll be a lot less damaging with a low walk total. While Takatsu’s numbers in Japan weren’t that impressive, both Sasaki and Otsuka had impressive numbers before succeeding in the majors; whereas a pitcher like Komiyama, who relied upon control, struggled when he tried to adjust to the majors. He’s certainly a fine pitcher to take a chance on if the price is right and I wouldn’t be overly hesitant with him, but it’s something to keep in mind.
Hirotoshii Ishii, Yakult Swallows, 27, LHP
2004: 4-2, 2.05 ERA, 38 G, 52.2 IP, 38 HA, 12 ER, 5 HR, 10 BB, 69 K
2003: 6-1, 1.99 ERA, 36 G, 45.1 IP, 37 HA, 10 ER, 4 HR, 10 BB, 61 K
2002: 6-2, 1.51 ERA, 69 G, 89.2 IP, 63 HA, 15 ER, 7 HR, 12 BB, 109 K
TOTALS: 14-5, 1.77 ERA, 143 G, 187.2 IP, 138 HA, 37 ER, 19 HR, 32 BB, 239 K
6.62 H/9, 11.46 K/9, 1.53 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 7.47 K/BB
This southpaw pitched 10 innings in 1996 and 1997, and then became a full-time pitcher in the NPB in 1999. After a poor ’99 season, he turned into a good reliever in 2000. Ishii really turned a corner in 2002, as he became one of the best relievers in Japan. Only 27, Ishii had two seasons of ERAs under 2, and then he just rose above that mark this year. Those ERA figures aren’t inflated either, as Ishii hasn’t allowed an unearned run in the last three years, although he allowed 8 in 2001. His rate states, save hits per 9 innings, are all better than the EA, and they closely resemble Akinori Otsuka’s with a small drop in the K rate. Given Ishii’s recent dominance, he is one of the best bets in a Japanese bullpen for success in the majors.
In the 2003 off-season Nippon Sports reported that Ishii wanted to be posted to the majors after the 2004 season. However, that article also included speculation that the Swallows might try to prevent that, given Takatsu’s posting to the majors, especially if third baseman Akinori Iwamura is also posted following the 2004 season.
Ryota Igarashi, Yakult Swallows, 25, RHP
2004: 5-3, 2.66 ERA, 66 G, 74.1 IP, 57 HA, 22 ER, 9 HR, 36 BB, 86 K
2003: 5-5, 3.89 ERA, 66 G, 74 IP, 60 HA, 32 ER, 9 HR, 33 BB, 83 K
2002: 8-2, 2.08 ERA, 64 G, 78 IP, 49 HA, 18 ER, 8 HR, 18 BB, 97 K
TOTALS: 18-10, 2.86 ERA, 196 G, 226 .1 IP, 166 HA, 72 ER, 26 HR, 87 BB, 266 K
6.60 H/9, 10.58 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9, 3.06 K/BB, (2 UER in 2004, 1 in 2003, 1 in 2002)
The Yakult Swallows have a good relief core, and Ryota Igarashi is an important part of the bullpen. Igarashi usually puts up a low ERA and strikes out many batters; however he has really struggled with his control most of his career, 2002 being the notable exception. In terms of hits and home runs allowed, Igarashi is close to the EA and shows good signs, but no dominance.
Igarashi is the typical fireballer who doesn’t always know where he’s throwing. He’s tied for the record for the fastest pitch in Japan with Hideki Irabu and Kazuo Yamaguchi, clocking a heater at 158 kph (98.75 mph). He officially achieved the record on June 3, 2004 in the bottom of the 9th against Makoto Imaoka of the Hanshin Tigers. Consistently throwing near 99 mph doesn’t seem to be a problem for Igarashi as he hit 158 kph with three pitches in a row on September 20th vs. Hanshin. As he’s only 25, Igarashi could well become the first Japanese pitcher to clock 100. It’d be quite interesting to see how he did in the majors with his blazing fastball.
Shinji Mori, Seibu Lions, 30, RHP
2004: 0-4, 4.59 ERA, 34 G, 49 IP, 50 IP, 25 ER, 5 HR, 38 BB, 49 K
2003: 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 61 G, 70 IP, 55 HA, 18 ER, 6 HR, 22 BB, 92 K
2002: 6-7, 2.07 ERA, 71 G, 78.1 IP, 61 HA, 18 ER, 4 HR, 29 BB, 102 K
TOTALS: 13-14, 2.78 ERA, 166 G, 197.1 IP, 166 HA, 61 ER, 15 HR, 89 BB, 243 K
7.57 H/9, 11.08 K/9, 4.06 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9, 2.73 K/BB, (10 UER in 2004, 1 in 2003, 7 in 2002)
Mori had a bad 2004, which was even worse than it looked at he allowed ten unearned runs for a 6.43 RAA. That gives Mori an almost unheard of, for a reliever, 18 unearned runs allowed over three years. Another warning sign surrounding Mori is his high walk rate, which gives him a K/BB ratio under 3. Mori’s not all bad news, as his low HR/9 ratio helps to minimise damage he does to himself through his walks allowed. Furthermore, his K/9 ratio would be 11.77 if 2004 wasn’t considered. 2004 also misleadingly bumped up his walk rate, which was 2.87 (high, but not worrisome like 4.06) from 2000-2003. He throws a fastball that apparently only reaches 90 mph on most days, but he has also has a forkball with a sharp drop.
In some ways Mori looks like a pitcher whose numbers hide some troubling stats, while in others he looks like someone whose 2004 is going to drag down his price more than he deserves. He’s someone worth taking a chance on if the price is minimal, which it might well be after last year. Obviously, if I was going to sign him I’d try to get extensive reports from Japanese executives and players as to what his trouble was in 2004 and whether it could be a sign of decline in any way.
Kiyoshi Toyoda, Seibu Lions, 34, RHP
2004: 5-1, 0.98 ERA, 34 G, 36.2 IP, 26 HA, 4 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 39 K
2003: 2-3, 1.24 ERA, 58 G, 58 IP, 37 HA, 8 ER, 2 HR, 9 BB, 54 K
2002: 6-1, 0.79 ERA, 57 G, 57.1IP, 32 HA, 5 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 66 K
Totals: 13-5, 1.01 ERA, 149 G, 152 IP, 95 HA, 17 ER, 4 HR, 17 BB, 159 K
5.63 H/9, 9.41 K/9, 1.01 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9, 9.35 K/BB, (1 UER in 2004)
Toyoda has been an extremely solid force out of the Seibu bullpen for many years, but he’s turned a corner over the last three years. Toyoda doesn’t quite strike out as many batters as the established average, but he’s not far behind with a K rate that still exceeds one an inning. However, with regards to his other ratios he noticeably exceeds the average, especially with regards to walks and home runs allowed. Toyoda’s HR allowed rate is 26.39% of the average of the previously successful relievers, and his BB/9 ratio is 44.44% of the EA. Plus, his K rate is still 90.66% of the EA.
Toyoda is one of the best relievers in Japan, and looks like a very good bet for success in the majors. He bears a rough resemblance to Otsuka, and Otsuka has adapted to the major leagues very well. Even though the strikeout numbers aren’t as outstanding as Sasaki or Otsuka, they’re still quite good and his other numbers are outstanding. A team would be foolish to pass him up given the opportunity to acquire him.
Hitoki Iwase, Chunichi Dragons, 30, LHP
2004: 2-3, 2.80 ERA, 60 G, 64.1 IP, 53 HA, 20 ER, 4 HR, 14 BB, 53 K
2003: 5-2, 1.41 ERA, 58 G, 63.2 IP, 47 HA, 10 ER, 3 HR, 12 BB, 61 K
2002: 4-2, 1.06 ERA, 52 G, 59.2 IP, 38 HA, 7 ER, 2 HR, 15 BB, 66 K
TOTALS: 11-7, 1.77 ERA, 170 G, 187.2 IP, 138 HA, 37 ER, 9 HR, 41 BB, 180 K
6.61 H/9, 8.63 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, 4.39 K/BB, (1 UER in 2002)
Iwase is part of a strong Chunichi bullpen, and the second southpaw on this list. He doesn’t strike out as many batters as the previously successful relievers, but his other ratios are all better than average, although only by miniscule amounts in two cases. Iwase has a better chance for success than some with lower strikeout numbers, as his control is consistently good and he keeps the ball in the ballpark.
He could make a valuable addition for a team in search of a left-handed reliever in their bullpen if Ishii is not posted or signs with another different major league team. Iwase still has a number of good years in front of him, and with fairly good control he can likely survive without the stuff that some of the other relievers on this list appear to possess.
Masataka Endoh, Chunichi Dragons, 32, RHP
2004: 1-0, 7.01 ERA, 22 G, 25.2 IP, 26 HA, 20 ER, 11 HR, 9 BB, 30 K
2003: 2-2, 2.83 ERA, 34 G, 41.1 IP, 33 HA, 13 ER (1 UER), 5 HR, 14 BB, 41 K
2002: 4-2, 3.14 ERA, 57 G, 71.2 IP, 61 HA, 25 ER (1 UER), 9 HR, 18 BB, 77 K
TOTALS: 7-4, 3.76 ERA, 113 G, 138.2 IP, 120 HA, 58 ER, 25 HR, 41 BB, 148 K
7.79 H/9, 9.61 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 1.62 HR/9, 3.61 K/BB, (1 UER in 2003 and 2002)
Masataka Endoh (I've seen his surname listed without the "h" sometimes, but I'm assuming the above spelling is correct) had a nice three years prior to this year, where the wheels fell off. I don’t know enough about the NPB to speculate as to why Masataka pitched so poorly this year. Was it just a case of a lot of bad bounces? Did he struggle with a nagging injury, explaining the drop innings pitched? Did he look healthy and the Chunichi coaching staff can’t explain it either?
Masataka’s numbers, even before the 2004 season, weren’t among the best but he was right at the top of the second tier of relievers. He’s right in the middle of his career, but I can’t really add a lot without knowing more about the nature of his struggles this year.
Denny Tomori, Yokohama Bay Stars, 37, RHP
2004: 0-1, 4.62 ERA, 21 G, 25.1 IP, 30 H, 13 ER (2 UER), 7 HR, 4 BB, 24 K
2003: 1-8, 4.40 ERA, 52 G, 47 IP, 49 H, 23 ER (1 UER), 5 HR, 11 BB, 47 K
2002: 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 2 G, 3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K*
2001: 1-2, 3.83 ERA, 54 G, 51.2 IP, 38 H, 22 ER (2 UER), 8 HR, 23 BB, 53 K
TOTALS: 2-11, 4.20 ERA, 127 G, 124 IP, 117 H, 58 ER, 20 HR, 38 BB, 124 K
8.49 H/9, 9.00 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9, 3.26 K/BB, (2 UER in 2004 and 2001, 1 UER in 2003)
For Yui “Denny” Tomori I didn’t include his 2002 when calculating his totals. This is the player that was linked to the Blue Jays in an article in the Sun a few weeks ago. He isn’t the best reliever on this list, not by a longshot. However, as I’ll get into in a bit more detail below, he may be one of the only ones who are available, and maybe the Jays expect the price of the others to exceed what they can afford to spend on an untested relief arm.
Tomori’s stats by themselves don’t really stand up to any of the other arms listed here. However, Shingo Takatsu proved that sometimes mediocre Japanese numbers can turn into good major league ones. Plus, Tomori is a submariner, which compares well to Takatsu’s deceptive sidearm. If the reports from the Sun are true, it’s likely the Jays hope the submarine arm angle will give major league hitters trouble for a year or two, at which point Tomori would be at about the end of his career anyway. Still, he wouldn’t be the first option I would go after, and I wouldn’t recommend the Jays sign him unless they’d exhausted some of the other options above.
Now, all of this is moot if the players can’t join the major leagues. Basically, as far as I understand it, the rules for Japanese players leaving to play in the majors are as follows (please correct me if I’m wrong, btw). If the player is a free agent he is free to sign with any team on November 6th, this includes either Japanese teams or major league teams. Of the pitchers listed above it seems as if Tomori is a free agent (although I’ve seen conflicting reports, most say he is) , but none of the rest appear to be free agents from anything I’ve come across. If the player is not a free agent, he may file a notice with MLB that he’d like to play in the majors. This allows any club interested in him to place bids on the rights to negotiate with the player. The player’s Japanese team selects the winning bid, and then allows the player to negotiate with the major league team and sign a contract if they so choose. I presume Japanese teams can not accept any bid, and can keep a player who has expressed a desire to play in the majors, but I don’t think this is common, and probably not particularly desirable to keep an unhappy body around.
So, what does this mean for the Blue Jays? Well, I’d rank the eight relievers in the following non-scientific order:
1. Toyoda
2. Ishii
3. Iwase
4. Tateyama
5. Igarashi
6. Mori
7. Endoh
8. Tomori
I strongly feel like any of the top four names could become an impact reliever in a major league bullpen. Igarashi could turn the corner with a bit better location, but if he loses a couple of mph on his fastball he could become eminently more hittable. Mori’s the best of the last three relievers, but both he and Masataka have question marks surrounding them after their 2004. If any of the top four posted themselves to the majors I’d encourage the Jays to put in serious bids for them. Toyoda could become an excellent setup man and after Doug Creek, Jason Kershner and Valerio de los Santos, I’d love to have Hirotoshi Ishii be our left-handed setup man for the next few years. As stated above, both Iwase and Tateyama would also make fine additions to a bullpen.
Over at the Hardball Times Craig asked about potential World Cup teams for each nation. Well, I’ll conclude this article by looking quickly at the Japan’s potential bullpen for the tournament.
Bullpens for such international tournaments are hard to predict, as you often might end up with two or three starters who didn’t make the rotation in the bullpen. Despite that I think that Ishii and Toyoda are locks for the Japanese bullpen, or are as close to locks as you can have for a tournament that is still 18 months away. Both of them post ridiculous numbers and have for several years in a row, demonstrating consistent talent with no signs of decline. Go look again at Toyoda’s K/BB ratio or HR/9, or at Ishii’s strikeouts. Ishii would be a formidable force against Larry Walker, Barry Bonds, Carlos Delgado and all the other left-handed sluggers and Toyodo would be one of the best setup men or closers in the tournament.
I’d say Iwase and Tateyama are very close to being locks as their numbers are in the next tier, not quite as good as the first two but still solidly above everyone else I’ve encountered. A poor year or two might hurt them more, as with the potential of a couple of starters in the bullpen, a good year by Igarashi or another reliever might knock one of them out. I’d lay solid money on at least one of the pair showing up at the tournament.
Igarashi is a leading candidate for a fifth reliever’s slot. His age and speed are a dangerous combination and similar results to what he’s done previously will help his chances, as people tend to go with firepower in a tossup. Mori and Masataka are question marks at this point, and I think Tomori will be too old, or just not good enough at that point to make the club. Other candidates to keep an eye for the last couple of spots include Shinya Okamoto (only been in the NPB for two seasons effectively, or else he’d have made the article; he’s probably the best bet of people not covered in this article), Yukinaga Maeda (good consistency, but he’s aging and the peripherals are never anything special), Koji Mise (no stats on the page; recent draftee who closed for the Fukoka Daiei Hawks this year and had a 3.06 ERA with good peripherals) and Ryu Kawabata (good numbers, just nothing outstanding). Additionally, as stated before, leftover starters who don’t make the rotation may get a place or two in the bullpen. However, the frontline of this bullpen looks very good with Otsuka, Toyoda and Ishii, and probably Iwase and Tateyama not far behind.
