Not too many positives come out of a season where you end up with 90+ losses. However, one of these positives is a high draft pick in the following year's draft.
For the 2005 draft in June the Jays will be picking 6th. JP Ricciardi has had three drafts as GM of Toronto and the team's emphasis in those years has been college players, particularly pitchers at the top of the draft.
The upcoming draft appears to be stronger among position players than pitchers. Given that, and the current strength in pitching working its way up through the minor leagues, it's likely that the Jays will take a position player with their first pick.
Mike Moffatt did an excellent job looking at the expected production of a player taken with the 6th pick. Now we'll try and see who that player might be.
Here's a list of college players who the Jays could be considering with their first pick. Keep in mind that these players have only played two years of college baseball (with one exception) and their draft status could change considerably between now and the draft.
The 'Burley Rankings' listed in the player profiles are the rankings of college hitters and pitchers based on their statistics in the 2003/2004 college season. These statistics are adjusted for both competition and park factors. Also consider that these rankings include players that were drafted this season
The list of players below are ranked by their Burley Ranking. However, these rankings are not rankings of the future potential of the player, just how they performed against their peers in college this year. The links of the players are to their profile at their college, but unfortunately in most cases the profiles have not been updated for the 2004 baseball season.
Jed Lowrie, 2B, Stanford
6'0", 180 lbs, 4/17/84
Hits: R – Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 1
The Cardinal switch hitter went from a decent college player to a great college player in his sophomore campaign. For his junior year he’s expected to move over to shortstop.
His BB/K ratio? 47/36 – not too bad. Is that ISO slg% of .335 inflated by his home park? Nope, Stanford’s park is close to neutral.
Wade Townsend, RHP, Rice
6'4", 225 lbs, RHP, 2/22/83
04 Burley Ranking - 4
Townsend apparently will be back in the 2005 draft after being selected 8th overall by the Orioles this year. He signed with an agent, but also enrolled back in school. The NCAA ruled that since he was enrolled in classes that he could no longer negiotiate with the Orioles, which is welcome news for teams looking for a deeper 2005 draft.
Here’s what Baseball America had to say about Townsend:
Many scouts are projecting Townsend as a big league closer, but he has the stuff to pitch in the front of a big league rotation. His fastball velocity has fluctuated this spring, sitting at 87-89 or 90-91 mph at various times, but he has also hit 95. He also throws the nastiest curveball among the Rice trio, though sometimes it breaks so much that he can struggle to control it. He'll throw an occasional changeup to lefthanders, a pitch that needs refinement.
Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska
6'1", 205 lbs, 2/10/84
Hits: L – Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 5
Like Lowrie, Gordon really improved his game from his freshman to sophomore year. Also like Lowrie, Gordon sports a nifty BB/K ratio of 47/34. And like Lowrie, Gordon’s ISO slg% of .389 isn’t helped much as Nebraska’s park plays pretty neutral.
Brad Corley, OF, Mississippi St.
6'1", 198 lbs, 12/28/83
Hits: R – Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 14
What’s to like? Solid across the board in an extreme pitcher’s park (75 PF). What’s there to be concerned about here? Just 17 walks and 44 strikeouts.
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita St
6'7", 215 lbs, 1/14/84
04 Burley Ranking - 27
A 2nd team BA All American on the list Pelfrey is impressive, especially in terms of keeping the ball in the park. He also has a very low walk rate for someone that’s 6’7”.
Stephen Head, 1B, Mississippi
6'2", 220 lbs, 1/13/84
Hits: L – Throws: L
04 Burley Ranking - 60
Head is both a 1B and pitcher, but it looks like it’s his bat that’s going to take him places. While his stats aren’t quite as gaudy as others, he plays in an extreme pitchers park (PF 73). Head played in the Cape Cod league this summer and was rated the #5 prospect by Baseball America after hitting .271/.333/.407. Here’s what BA has to say:
“Head had one of the best pure swings on the Cape. He's still learning to drive the ball for power, but there's little doubt that it eventually will come, and he's also a solid defender at first base.”
The final 4 players listed here were in Baseball America's projected top 10 draft picks as of October 2004. None of these players are overwhelming statistically, but must have something going for them to be rated that high by BA.
Luke Hochavar, RHP, Tennessee
6'5', 205 lbs, 9/15/83
04 Burley Ranking - 215
Hochevar is another big pitcher with a strong K rate. During his freshman year he was used primarily out of the bullpen (5 starts in 21 appearances). This past season Hochevar was used more as a starter but he only made 9 starts for the Volunteers due to injury. First Hochevar endured a calf injury, and was later then hit in the head by a freak line drive during batting practice. Prior to the end of the season Hochevar was back pitching again.
Jeff Clement, C, USC
6'1", 205 lbs, 8/21/83
Bats: L - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 339
Clement has a strong freshman year as he was named the 'Collegiate Baseball Freshman National Co-Player of the Year'. Heading into his sophomore campaign Clement was a Baseball America Preseason All-America first team, but he didn't have quite the same level of success in year 2 as his slugging dropped over 100 points. Perhaps there was something in the USC water as 2004 Blue Jay draft pick Joey Metropoulos watched his slugging percentage each year at USC.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beach St
6'3", 200 lbs, 10/10/84
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 530
Tyler Greene, SS, Georgia Tech
6'2", 188 lbs, 8/17/83
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 785
Green, a 2nd round pick of the Atlanta Braves coming out of high school, was voted the winner of the Cape Cod's league 'Top Prospect' award after hitting .296/.413/.424 this summer. According to Baseball America Green's "arm, hands and range are all above-average, though Greene got a little lackadaisical on routine plays this summer".
Outlook:
Given their draft history it's almost certain that the Jays will take a college player with their first pick at #6. However, at this time it's way too early to project what specific player the Jays may take with their pick as all of these players will get almost another full season of college baseball under their belt before they're drafted. Over the next 8 months some could cement their status at the top of the draft, while others could drop sharply in the draft. Other players could also vault ahead of these players with a strong junior year - it's very common for college players to take a leap forward in their junior year as they mature. Regardless of what some specific players do between now and May it looks as if the Jays will be able to have their choice between several top prospects.
Having said all that it's still fun to spectulate. At this point I'll guess that the Jays will end up selecting Stephen Head. Part of this reasoning is that there's been more emphasis on pitching and the middle infield in prior drafts, the Jays are relatively young in Toronto in the OF, there's a need for a big time power bat in the organization, there isn't a sure thing among 1B in the minors, and the Jays seem to like players that perform well in the Cape Cod League (where the college players are using wood bats).
For the 2005 draft in June the Jays will be picking 6th. JP Ricciardi has had three drafts as GM of Toronto and the team's emphasis in those years has been college players, particularly pitchers at the top of the draft.
The upcoming draft appears to be stronger among position players than pitchers. Given that, and the current strength in pitching working its way up through the minor leagues, it's likely that the Jays will take a position player with their first pick.
Mike Moffatt did an excellent job looking at the expected production of a player taken with the 6th pick. Now we'll try and see who that player might be.
Here's a list of college players who the Jays could be considering with their first pick. Keep in mind that these players have only played two years of college baseball (with one exception) and their draft status could change considerably between now and the draft.
The 'Burley Rankings' listed in the player profiles are the rankings of college hitters and pitchers based on their statistics in the 2003/2004 college season. These statistics are adjusted for both competition and park factors. Also consider that these rankings include players that were drafted this season
The list of players below are ranked by their Burley Ranking. However, these rankings are not rankings of the future potential of the player, just how they performed against their peers in college this year. The links of the players are to their profile at their college, but unfortunately in most cases the profiles have not been updated for the 2004 baseball season.
Jed Lowrie, 2B, Stanford
6'0", 180 lbs, 4/17/84
Hits: R – Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 1
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg
2004 233 0.399 0.505 0.734
2003 212 0.292 0.349 0.349
The Cardinal switch hitter went from a decent college player to a great college player in his sophomore campaign. For his junior year he’s expected to move over to shortstop.
His BB/K ratio? 47/36 – not too bad. Is that ISO slg% of .335 inflated by his home park? Nope, Stanford’s park is close to neutral.
Wade Townsend, RHP, Rice
6'4", 225 lbs, RHP, 2/22/83
04 Burley Ranking - 4
Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2004 120.1 1.80 11.1 3.4 0.4
2003 118.2 2.20 12.5 3.5 0.2
2002 51.1 2.28 9.0 3.9 0.7
Townsend apparently will be back in the 2005 draft after being selected 8th overall by the Orioles this year. He signed with an agent, but also enrolled back in school. The NCAA ruled that since he was enrolled in classes that he could no longer negiotiate with the Orioles, which is welcome news for teams looking for a deeper 2005 draft.
Here’s what Baseball America had to say about Townsend:
Many scouts are projecting Townsend as a big league closer, but he has the stuff to pitch in the front of a big league rotation. His fastball velocity has fluctuated this spring, sitting at 87-89 or 90-91 mph at various times, but he has also hit 95. He also throws the nastiest curveball among the Rice trio, though sometimes it breaks so much that he can struggle to control it. He'll throw an occasional changeup to lefthanders, a pitch that needs refinement.
Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska
6'1", 205 lbs, 2/10/84
Hits: L – Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 5
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg
2004 211 0.365 0.493 0.754
2003 216 0.319 0.426 0.495
Like Lowrie, Gordon really improved his game from his freshman to sophomore year. Also like Lowrie, Gordon sports a nifty BB/K ratio of 47/34. And like Lowrie, Gordon’s ISO slg% of .389 isn’t helped much as Nebraska’s park plays pretty neutral.
Brad Corley, OF, Mississippi St.
6'1", 198 lbs, 12/28/83
Hits: R – Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 14
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg
2004 245 0.380 0.442 0.678
2003 224 0.321 0.377 0.402
What’s to like? Solid across the board in an extreme pitcher’s park (75 PF). What’s there to be concerned about here? Just 17 walks and 44 strikeouts.
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita St
6'7", 215 lbs, 1/14/84
04 Burley Ranking - 27
Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2004 115.1 2.18 9.8 1.9 0.2
2003 104.2 2.49 8.5 1.3 0.8
A 2nd team BA All American on the list Pelfrey is impressive, especially in terms of keeping the ball in the park. He also has a very low walk rate for someone that’s 6’7”.
Stephen Head, 1B, Mississippi
6'2", 220 lbs, 1/13/84
Hits: L – Throws: L
04 Burley Ranking - 60
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg
2004 228 0.346 0.419 0.583
2003 208 0.337 0.385 0.490
Head is both a 1B and pitcher, but it looks like it’s his bat that’s going to take him places. While his stats aren’t quite as gaudy as others, he plays in an extreme pitchers park (PF 73). Head played in the Cape Cod league this summer and was rated the #5 prospect by Baseball America after hitting .271/.333/.407. Here’s what BA has to say:
“Head had one of the best pure swings on the Cape. He's still learning to drive the ball for power, but there's little doubt that it eventually will come, and he's also a solid defender at first base.”
The final 4 players listed here were in Baseball America's projected top 10 draft picks as of October 2004. None of these players are overwhelming statistically, but must have something going for them to be rated that high by BA.
Luke Hochavar, RHP, Tennessee
6'5', 205 lbs, 9/15/83
04 Burley Ranking - 215
Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2004 63 2.86 8.6 3.3 1.0
2003 77.2 4.64 8.5 2.8 1.0
Hochevar is another big pitcher with a strong K rate. During his freshman year he was used primarily out of the bullpen (5 starts in 21 appearances). This past season Hochevar was used more as a starter but he only made 9 starts for the Volunteers due to injury. First Hochevar endured a calf injury, and was later then hit in the head by a freak line drive during batting practice. Prior to the end of the season Hochevar was back pitching again.
Jeff Clement, C, USC
6'1", 205 lbs, 8/21/83
Bats: L - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 339
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg
2004 198 0.293 0.416 0.515
2003 208 0.298 0.402 0.649
Clement has a strong freshman year as he was named the 'Collegiate Baseball Freshman National Co-Player of the Year'. Heading into his sophomore campaign Clement was a Baseball America Preseason All-America first team, but he didn't have quite the same level of success in year 2 as his slugging dropped over 100 points. Perhaps there was something in the USC water as 2004 Blue Jay draft pick Joey Metropoulos watched his slugging percentage each year at USC.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beach St
6'3", 200 lbs, 10/10/84
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 530
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg
2004 230 0.317 0.410 0.491
2003 196 0.270 0.307 0.408
Tyler Greene, SS, Georgia Tech
6'2", 188 lbs, 8/17/83
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 785
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg
2004 256 0.273 0.371 0.434
2003 228 0.316 0.391 0.474
Green, a 2nd round pick of the Atlanta Braves coming out of high school, was voted the winner of the Cape Cod's league 'Top Prospect' award after hitting .296/.413/.424 this summer. According to Baseball America Green's "arm, hands and range are all above-average, though Greene got a little lackadaisical on routine plays this summer".
Outlook:
Given their draft history it's almost certain that the Jays will take a college player with their first pick at #6. However, at this time it's way too early to project what specific player the Jays may take with their pick as all of these players will get almost another full season of college baseball under their belt before they're drafted. Over the next 8 months some could cement their status at the top of the draft, while others could drop sharply in the draft. Other players could also vault ahead of these players with a strong junior year - it's very common for college players to take a leap forward in their junior year as they mature. Regardless of what some specific players do between now and May it looks as if the Jays will be able to have their choice between several top prospects.
Having said all that it's still fun to spectulate. At this point I'll guess that the Jays will end up selecting Stephen Head. Part of this reasoning is that there's been more emphasis on pitching and the middle infield in prior drafts, the Jays are relatively young in Toronto in the OF, there's a need for a big time power bat in the organization, there isn't a sure thing among 1B in the minors, and the Jays seem to like players that perform well in the Cape Cod League (where the college players are using wood bats).
