Repeating what I said in the roundup thread...

No question, it's officially official. 2 years, 2.7 mil per.

Allow me to be the first to say: what the hell?

I like Frank Catalanotto, as a hitter and (evidently) as a clubhouse presence. But his only useful role on this team going forward is as a DH against right-handers, 400 AB per year maximum. I simply do not see that that's a job worth a guaranteed two years and 5.4 million of the team's precious dollars. Gabe Gross should approach or match Cat's numbers in 2005-06 for a fraction of the cost.

I await counter-arguments that can make better sense of this. But right now, this seems like a really bad idea to me.

Not a big fan of this signing. Frank filled the part for the past couple of years, but he is injury prone and does not produce as much as a 1B/DH/LF should in my opinion. He will always be around .300 but his lack of walks and HRs hurt.

Frankly (no pun intended) I'd rather see the kids play (Gross/Crozier/Rios, etc.) and/or the Jays make a statement and sign a productive FA bat.

Actually, I'd be happiest with Delgado back. 400 OBP/550 SLG guys aren't easy to come by, and I still think he means a lot to the organization and to the fans.

I'm a little surprised that the second year is guaranteed. I'm not sure how I feel about this yet.

While I understand the criticism of this signing, I love the Cat and am happy to see him staying with the club.

Here's hoping he has two much healthier seasons coming up.

It looks like I'm losing my title as "roster member most likely to question an organizational move". Oh well, easy come, easy go.

Kidding aside, Jordan gets no argument from me. The dollars make no sense to me.

Allow me to be the second to say: What the hell?

I like Frankie Cat as well, but with the Gross/Johnson platoon in left, the only spot for him is DH. The Blue Jays can't afford to be spending nearly 3mil on a DH that doesn't hit for power, in my opinion. Not with Delgado gone, anyways.

I agree fully with Jordan.

As I've mentioned a few times (and hopefully I'm not beating into the ground) you can't expect more than 120 games out of Cat.

Plus, right now he's coming off of an injury that ended his season. Were teams really going to be lining up to sign Cat for $2.7 million/year for 2 years?

And there's no better alternatives for that money?

For the Jays to move up in the standings they need to get more bang for the buck. Overpaying an injury prone CI without a lot of power doesn't seem to do that.

This is like the A's signing Hatteberg last year. It didn't make sense to most at the time, but looks like it's working out. Hopefully this works out the same.

Thanks to Rob and Four Seamer for the news.

Don't forget Mr. Mike Wilner. I never listen to the FAN at 3:00 (I cannot stand "The Swirsk"), but his post in the Roundup thread sent me scrambling for my crappy little radio which never seems to work in SkyDome.

I love the Cat and am happy to see him staying with the club

I agree, I just think the team overpaid by $1 MM/year.

I don't know why Gross would be blocked by Cat. I assume that Cat will platoon at DH and Gross in LF. Cat does potentially block Crozier but I don't know if that's a good or a bad thing. The question is what other DH/1B options were there and at what price. What I don't like is Cat getting a raise after lost season. With the tight budget, the $.5M extra spent is not insignificant.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?Name=BBGB
Here are Cats career numbers COMN

I don't think this will do much for the power outage in Toronto but I am not so negative as Jordan. I don't think Gross can be expected to to hit .297 next year. That's Cats career ave.

Cat is a professional hitter and on a team full of young players will give some stability. If the Jays are going to have Gross, Rios, Adams, GQ, or even Crozier in the lineup you have to expect some ups and downs. Cat should serve as a valuable sub/ pinchhitter so I think he would get more than 400 AB.

If Gross, Crozier, mystery freeagent DH et al are doing well, you could trade him at the deadline. Contenders are not going to balk at $2.7 million.

Mat, I'm not thinking so much that Catalanotto will block Gross, but that Gross is an example of comparable production for much less money. And Gross, at least, will add power over the next two years, while Cat appears to be losing it.

I said last month that Frank Catalanotto has become Rance Mulliniks. I loved Rance too, but I wouldn't guarantee him $5.4 million in the twilight of his career.

I imagine that Cat has a whole lot of clubhouse love from when he defended the young guys in that umpire altercation earlier this season.

I think this signing paves the way for the Jays to let Delgado walk and have Cat play around 120 games at first. I can definitely see that scenario with Crozier playing the additional 40ish games as his back-up and defensive replacement. While I'm not thrilled with the money if he ends up playing first base I think i'll be satisfied with the move.

I have to agree with most of the posts above questioning the dollar value of the contract. I think Catalanotto is a very useful player, and I'm glad to see him coming back for each of the next two years, but the price tag seems a little steep compared to what he probably would command as a free agent. But there is some value in doing this now and striking one chore of JP's off-season to-do list, and perhaps it does indicate that next year's budget will be towards the higher end of the range speculated in the media to date.

you could trade him at the deadline. Contenders are not going to balk at $2.7 million

I agree with Ducey here. Cat could be a nice trading chip if the Jays' offence isn't resurrected the way management feels it can be next season.

I'm also going to put the wild-eyed optimistic spin on this signing and suggest that it may signal at least a modest boost in the '05 payroll, which would be a very good thing. Assuming that payroll will go up, then I'm of the school of thought that it pays not to play contract hardball with players that you also like as people. Obviously, the team's management wants him around. If it doesn't prevent J.P. from making any of the moves he envisions making this coming offseason, why nickel-and-dime the Cat?

and perhaps it does indicate that next year's budget will be towards the higher end of the range speculated in the media to date.

While I hope that's true, overpaying is overpaying. I hope Frank makes me eat my doubts.

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001158.shtml
In case anyone was curious (like me,) COMN for the thread where Cat was signed last year.

Cat goes from 2.3M to 2.7M. Why?

How does a player coming off a bad injury plagued season actually get a raise from his previous salary?

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Here's hoping the distance between what Delgado asks for and what the club can afford isn't $2.7 million.

Jordan. The question is how easily replaceable is Cat? We don't have another Gross unless his name is Crozier. JP has said that he is reluctant to plug in too may youngsters in the lineup at the same time. On the other hand JP surely paid a loyalty premium to Cat.

Cavaet: Frank Catalanatto has probly been my favourite Blue jays since John Olerud left for New York.

The dollar amount *may* be a little high, there is the injury deal (although at 2 years, maybe he's insured), but Frank's production when healthy is superb.

And maybe the contract is try to send a message in the organisation about rewarding hard work and results. Maybe it's supposed to be a free agent beacon. Hard to say.

However, there is a lot of overreaction here too. Frank Catalanatto is 30. He's at the peak of his career, most likely, not the twilight. Comparing him to Rance Mulliniks is probly accurate, but he's Rance at his peak, not during his twilight.

But there is some value in doing this now and striking one chore of JP's off-season to-do list

That's what people said about the Hentgen and Ligtenberg signings last year.

Bargains are more likely to be found at the end of free agency, not before it starts.

I should point out that, in my view, there are two -- and only two -- ways in which a re-signing or a free-agent signing is ever a bad thing for a club and its fans.

I made similar points in the Pudge Rodriguez-to-the-Tigers thread. Obviously, Pudge's ticket-selling ability makes that signing distinguishable. But anyway, the two ways a signing can backfire...

1. The player will block superior, big-league-ready young players because (a) he plays a particular defensive position, and (b) makes so much money that he can't be traded to make way for the youngster. See, e.g., the Erstad contract.

2. The player's contract will have such a "millstone" effect on the club's payroll that it prevents the club from re-signing Player X, or signing Player Y, when it would otherwise want to do either or both. See, e.g., the Delgado contract.

Catalanotto's contract most certainly does not cause problem 1, and I just can't believe that JP would have made this season if it was going to cause problem 2. The worst-case scenario is that Cat plays so poorly that nobody will want to acquire him in 2006, and it's a waste of $2.7 million in 2006 dollars.

What's the problem?

Guess I'm in the minority here, but I don't think the price is outrageous. It's only a slight raise for a guy who only a couple months ago was considered a bargain. There certainly seemed to be a lot of interest in him at the last two trade deadlines. It's roughly what I expected him to get on the market. However, there is a case to be made that you can find comparable production for much less elsewhere.

Maybe I'm just being blindly optimistic but I don't think Cat's power has truly vanished so quickly. The oblique muscle seems to have played a big role in sapping his power. I'll wait and see what happens in the offseason, as I think it will be a busy one and we may not really know what Cat's full role will be until then, before condemning or praising this one.

Oops. Meant to say "made this signing" in my last post.

The Jays are heading towards a Yankee style, flexible, lineup. The Jays will be able to field a lineup of between 5 and 7 lefties - Zaun, Hudson, Gross, Hinske, Cat, with 1B and SS still tbd. If Adams, say, plays SS against RHP then you have 6 lefties. The righties would be Wells, Rios and who's on first. Two star righties and six guys with a platoon advantage.

If the Jays acquire a righty 1B and bring back Menechino then they have seven righties against a LHP, all except Cat and Hinske. If you carry 14 hitters you could sit Cat. If you can sign/trade for a switch hitting 1B then you increase your platoon advantage.

Maybe platoon advantage is the new cheap skill to replace on base percentage and defense.

When we look at Cats compensation the question is what other lefty DH types are out there? If there is a shortage of LH DH'd then that would drive up the price.

But there is some value in doing this now and striking one chore of JP's off-season to-do list

That's what people said about the Hentgen and Ligtenberg signings last year.

Bargains are more likely to be found at the end of free agency, not before it starts.

Well, a bad signing is a bad signing, regardless of the timing of the deal. I don't disagree with you there. But JP has a lot of matters to address this off-season, and shortening the list by one with a known commodity at an inflated, but not absurd, price will allow him to narrow his focus. The more balls you have to juggle in the off-season, the more likely you are to drop them.

There needs to be someone who can lead this team, if Carlos is gone. Who better then Cat? If Carlos sticks around, then Cat could be pretty tempting trade bait. Not to mention Gross doesnt hold as much value as a DH as opposed to an OF.

How does a player coming off a bad injury plagued season actually get a raise from his previous salary?

Well for starters you make him a full fledged free agent instead of threatening him with the stigma of being a two-time non-tender. I wouldn't call it a bad season exactly either. The injury hit him just before the all-star break at which point he was hitting .327/.363/.455.

Here are Cat's hitting stats against right-handed pitching 2001-2004:
2004 .307/.368/.411
2001-2003 .315/.376/.492.

He's hit very poorly against lefties.

Used in the strictly platoon role, he's a very effective DH if he regains his 2001-2003 performance level.

Maybe platoon advantage is the new cheap skill to replace on base percentage and defense.

I think this is a good insight into what they Jays seem to find themselves with. You have to presume it is intentional...

Great point Gerry.

If Delgado walks, is JP counting on the offense being better simply by default? By bringing Cat back, the offense is going to be nearly identical to this year's. As has been asked a million times, where is the power going to come from?

I like Cat, but I'm not sure exactly what JP's plan/reasoning is. I'm sure he knows what he is doing, but at first glance this contract seems a little expensive to me.

Godd Bye Carlos. You'll be missed.

Godd Bye Carlos. You'll be missed.

Are you suggesting that because of this deal, the Jays have run out of the money they need to sign Carlos? Or are you implying that the Jays only make this deal because they've given up on inking Delgado? The latter makes a certain amount of sense (though I don't necessarily agree), but the former strikes me as a wild overreaction.

I personally don't see any connection between Cat's signing and Delgado's prospect of returning. Even with the signing the team still needs at least more 1 DH/1B on the team next year.

Thanks to Mike Wilner for alerting us to the breaking news.

Nobody, not even NFH, likes Cat more than I do. He's an instructional video at the plate. His admirable numbers would be even better if not for the litany of health problems he's endured over the years: bad back, broken bones, blurred vision and now "hockey groin." I truly believe he can hit .330/.380/.480 if he stays in the lineup, and that his series of unrelated DL trips are attributable to bad luck, not some chronic physical weakness. On the other hand, maybe the dark cloud that used to follow Joe Btfsplk around before it adopted Cat won't go away.

So if this was $2.2 MM for one year with a team option, I'd be happier. Sure, it's not my money, but I hate to think that this signing means another lefty reliever from the discard pile instead of a southpaw bullpen stopper. Unlike Noah, I sure hope Catalanotto is not supposed to be in the mix at first base. He isn't very good over there and the injury risk can only increase. If he's the DH vs. RH starters and #1 pinch-hitting option on other days, I'm a lot more confident that he'll earn his money for both years.

The 2006 guarantee is the part that puzzles me. The signing is clearly a pre-emptive move by the Jays, who must believe Frank would have received a similar (or larger) offer somewhere else. It's quite likely they know more about the market than we do, but at the same time, it's reminiscent of the Ligtenberg deal, which was also panned here as overpaying. Definitely not a bargain; hardly a disaster, either. It means Crozier isn't being counted on to play anything but a minor role, which is a good thing, but if Eric does turn out to be a steal and is deemed ready any time in the next two years, they can trade Cat to another team that appreciates his skills.

what other lefty DH types are out there?

The usual suspects at $1 million or so -- Fullmer, Fick, Simon, Stairs, etc. -- and a few more expensive possibilities with no guarantee of being worth the extra dough -- Palmeiro, Olerud, Snow. Not a particularly deep pool.

It occurs to me that the projected budget for 2005 which was $48M US when JP took the job is now probably equivalent to about $55 US due to the stronger Canadian dollar. I'm sure Rogers realizes this.

Cat can play 1B, 3B, OF and DH.

Very very versitile player overall ans I doubt he is going to "steal" much roster time from Gross or Rios.

Waaaay better than having Berg or Gomez as our DH.

Only problem is the Injuries.

But that being said I would take 7 Cats over 1 Delgado any day of the week.

I have been curious about laser surgery ever since Mr. Catalanotto needed that second laser-op on his eyes. From what I have read (COMN for a link), there was a risk that his eyesight might have been damaged by the surgery, and that there could have been side-effects (halo and glare around lights) that would have affected his hitting ability.
I am no expert and really do not believe this is a serious concern, but what if Frank needs the procedure repeated? At the time he was only earning 1 million and could have been non-tendered. The Jays have a lot more invested in him now...

The only way this makes sense is if they plan to start him... at 1st or DH or a blend... which probably means that while we wanted TWO big bats, we'll be lucky to get one.

If we resign Carlos, at the rate he's been hitting the past month, he's worth 2 bats all by himself.

which probably means that while we wanted TWO big bats, we'll be lucky to get one.

And I want a pony, and a new computer, and etc.

The Jays will be lucky to get one big bat, given the team's budget, the number of teams in the league, and the number of players available in any given off-season. If they do get two, it will be at the expense of something else, and I can guarantee there will be lots of complaining here about how JP has rolled the dice with the bullpen again.

which probably means that while we wanted TWO big bats, we'll be lucky to get one.

And I want a pony, and a new computer, and etc.

The Jays will be lucky to get one big bat, given the team's budget, the number of teams in the league, and the number of players available in any given off-season. If they do get two, it will be at the expense of something else, and I can guarantee there will be lots of complaining here about how JP has rolled the dice with the bullpen again.

Sorry for the double post. We may not get two big bats, but we will have two very small posts!

http://www.fda.gov/fdac/features/1998/498_eye.html
I put the link in the email. Maybe I need to see Cat's specialist.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
whew - for a second there I thought you wanted two ponies.

My gut feeling tells me Delgado is coming back as well. He will certainly take a huge pay cut, perhaps even 50%, but I'm sure all the $20MM men know they were lucky to have signed those deals when they did and that the market is different now (Nomar, you idiot). Carlos' public stance against "America The Beautiful" has limited his free agent options (you won't see him in NY or Houston). And it seems Chicago or LA are the only markets who could afford to swing a monster deal to steal him away - but Carlos had the chance to go to LA earlier and declined.

The tear he's on now will just make JP and Rogers sleep well at night when they decide to pay him $9-12MM per year.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com/20040830jim.html
COMN for some reasons to agree with Keith. Palmeiro was coming off a much better year than Delgado when he signed for $4.5 million. True, he's 39 and he probably took a pay cut to play where he wanted, but wouldn't you figure the Jays will get some kind of hometown discount with Carlos?

Work intervened.....

Comparing him to Rance Mulliniks is probly accurate, but he's Rance at his peak, not during his twilight

Andrew, I'm not even sure of that.

Rance Mulliniks

Age    PAs    OPS+
26     353     83
27     427    125  
28     379    124
29     427    126
30     395    104
31     372    127
31     399    143
33     309     85

Frank Catalanotto

Age    PAs    OPS+
25     315     97
26     326    106
27     512    131
28     250    104
29     535    111
30     274    80ish?

Catalanotto, up to this point, has not had as good a career as Mulliniks. But that's neither here nor there; the Mulliniks comparison was meant to conjure up a high-average, low-power lefty hitter from the Jays' past. Rance himself was essentially a full-time DH from age 32 onwards.

The question is how easily replaceable is Cat?

Good question. Removing this injury-plagued season (but recognizing that these types of injuries are only likely to become more common as he ages), Catalanotto's median OPS+ the previous five years was 106. So, recognizing that Cat no longer has a role against lefties, are DHs who can take 400 PAs against righties and post somewhat higher-than-average offensive numbers hard to find -- keeping in mind that Cat hasn't reached 400 PAs four of the last six seasons?

(Frank's career totals of .296/.358/.457, which he may or may not reach the next two years, for comparison:)

Daryle Ward is hitting .255/.309/.510 in 251 AB for the minimum.
Ben Broussard is hitting .266/.365/.451 in 357 AB for $325,000.
Carlos Pena is hitting .251/.344/.471 in 410 AB for $330,000.
Jeff DeVanon is hitting .298/.387/.444 in 248 AB for $375,000.
Dave Delucci is hitting .261/.356/.481 in 295 AB for $750,000.
Michael Tucker is hitting .262/.363/.433 in 413 AB for 1.5M.
Todd Walker is hitting .275/.356/.477 in 327 AB for $1.75M.

Except for DeVanon, none of these guys can match Cat in BA -- but several give him stiff competition in OBP and SLG, and they all do it for substantially less than Cat is now committed to make for two years. This also doesn't take into account two or three minor-league veterans like Bucky Jacobsen who could make a one-year splash if given the chance. Not all these guys will replicate these numbers in 2005 -- but some will, and so will others not on this list. None will cost $2.7M.

Don't mistake me for a Catalanotto-basher -- I like him a great deal, and I was hoping he'd make his way back in '05, for less money, as the DH against RH. But I just don't think he's worth $2.7M a year anymore, and I definitely, without question, do not think a second guaranteed year is warranted.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1875672
Carlos' public stance against "America The Beautiful" has limited his free agent options (you won't see him in NY or Houston).

Interesting. Gammons called Delgado "a tremendous human being" in his 2005 Free Agents column (COMN, near the middle).

Jordan.

I wasn't context adjusting the comparison, which is why Rance comes out ahead like that. OPS+ is an awesome stat, but it wasn't the way I was thinking. Sorry.

No worries, Andrew -- I was actually surprised that Rance came out ahead in the comparison. He was a fine player -- and an example of Freely Available Talent, too, acquired as he was from the Royals in 1982 for Phil (6-18, 5.77 in 1979) Huffman.

I can't evaluate this signing because I don't have the big picture.

There are several possibilities I can think of (and probably lots I can't think of):

- At the positive extreme: the Jays have a larger budget for next year, and can afford to pay for Cat + other batters + a shiny new bullpen.

- At the negative extreme: the Jays don't expect to sign a first baseman or DH on the free-agent market in the offseason, and are re-signing Cat because that's all they can afford. In this worst-case scenario, Crozier plays first, Cat DH's, and next year's outfielders are the same as this year's outfielders.

- The Jays need to sign somebody so that the other owners don't get mad at them for not spending any money at all. Presumably, if the Jays don't increase their payroll, they'll get revenue-sharing money from other teams; if Rogers doesn't spend any of the Delgado money, the other owners will likely get steamed and threaten to do all sorts of nasty things.

- They're rewarding loyalty.

- They're rewarding a player who has said, loudly and repeatedly, that he loves to play in Toronto. For many major league players, playing in Toronto, with its funny turf and funny money, and its quiet crowds, is a sentence of death; what a relief to find a player who actually likes it here. (This, by the way, is why I haven't totally given up on the Jays re-signing Delgado - he's already turned down one chance to go elsewhere.)

- This is the first of an elaborate chain of moves, and we don't know what else J.P., Keith Law, and the rest of the Jays' front office have in mind. J.P. is not somebody who sits around and waits for things to happen.

And, hey, it's not as if he's a terrible player. He can play several positions in a pinch, and I've never seen a more professional hitter. And he's not that old, either. The real question is whether he can stay healthy; obviously, the Jays think he can.

Gammons is right, Rob. Carlos is a tremendous human being.

I don't think signing Catalanotto will impact what happens with Delgado at all, except to assure Carlos of playing more 1B and less DH than if they had let Cat leave and signed, say, J.T. Snow or Travis Lee. If anything, I'm guessing that makes the big fella slightly more inclined to stay. Frankie and Carlos are also best buddies in the batting cage, for what that's worth.

I definitely, without question, do not think a second guaranteed year is warranted.

If the Jays were essentially bidding against themselves, I completely agree. If another team or teams were interested enough in Cat that this was established market value, I'm glad he's still here. Either way, the total amount doesn't bother me nearly as much as the guarantee; $2.2 MM with a $3.2 MM option rewards the player for 2005 performance without tying the team's hands if he doesn't bounce all the way back from the 2004 debacle.

A few things posters have not yet addressed on this thread:

Cat was 4th in the AL in BA when he was injured

This signing in no way affects Delgado. I am certain he is not coming back regardless simply because management does not want him back. He is a floater, does not lead and if you take JP at his word, playing somewhere else in 05.

the possibility now exists that either or both of Johnson or Gross could be traded. Not saying they will although I do suspect that Reed is to be dealt. Simply, this move gives JP more flexibility going forward.

By the way, serious congratulations are due to Mike Green for his subtle invocation of singer/songwriter Chan Marshall in his post thread. Her material, performed under the moniker Cat Power, makes for uneasy listening at times, but it's very powerful stuff. She doesn't sound like the person you'd want to spend much time with, however!

Carlos' public stance against "America The Beautiful" has limited his free agent options (you won't see him in NY or Houston).

Carlos could sing God Bless America at every game and he wouldn't be signing with either of those teams.

Sorry, work intervened for me as well.

My "Good bye Carlos" comment wasn't neccessarily meant to refer to finances, although it is $2.7M x 2 less that would be available for re-signing Delgado or any other FA.

To me this is JP executing his contingency plan, which wouldn't be necessary if JP had a belief (or even inkling) that they could actually get Carlos' name on another contract.

Her material, performed under the moniker Cat Power, makes for uneasy listening at times, but it's very powerful stuff.

You owe it to yourself to hear her cover version of "Satisfaction". (Play it back to back with Devo's version, and you will be convinced that the universe is a place of infinite possibilities.)

This signing in no way affects Delgado. I am certain he is not coming back regardless simply because management does not want him back. He is a floater, does not lead and if you take JP at his word, playing somewhere else in 05.

Delgado isn't a rah-rah type - and those types are overrated anyway - but he's been an exemplary professional. He works hard, he's willing to play when hurt, and he never uses injuries as an excuse for poor play. What more can you ask?

The Cat is a great 4th OF for a team like the Yankees, but for a team like the Jays with their financial constraints we are much better off handing his job off to a younger, cheaper player and using that money to fill holes elsewhere, like SP or RP, where we have clearer holes with poorer replacements on the horizon from the minors. What makes the move even more startling is that we appear to have younger and cheaper options with higher upside already pushing for playing time. I'm referring to Rios and Gross in the OF and Crozier at DH. The Jays are going absolutely nowhere if we are getting his production out of 1B.

Re 1B what about trading for Adrian Gonzalez of the Rangers (.304/.364/.457 at AAA Oklahoma)? Texas already has Teixeira. Gonzalez has high upside and would be extremely cheap. The Jays could save $10-13 million in salary, get good production, and expand their nucleus of talented young players (he's around 21 or 22).

JP, any thoughts?

Anyone else see a spot opening up for one of Da Box's favourite lefty-mashing backup C/1B?

Hint: He's back in the bigs right now with the Dodgers.

This is a terrible deal by JP.

I've read all the other posts in this thread and it still doesn't make any sense.

Cat hasn't played one full year in his MLB career. He's an injury prone player who doesn't draw walks and has no HR power.

If the Cat is Delgado's replacement at 1B this is a complete joke.

If Delgado bolts over $2.7 mil a season I will be pissed.

The OF positions for next season are already set (assuming no trades) with Gross, Johnson, Wells, and Rios. The Cat doesn't have enough pop to play DH or 1B. With the Jays limited budget I sure hope Cat isn't being paid 2.7mil to ride the bench.

Let's assume some how Delgado gets resigned how much more money does JP have to play with? The bullpen needs a complete makeover and there's no way he can bring back the same offence. Even with Delgado back, JP still needs to bring in somebody who can hit 25+ HR's.

I'm stunned by this signing. What did the Cat do to deserve a raise? Use up more of the Jays money for medical expenses?

As far as I'm concerned next year is put or shut up for JP.

Greenfrog, as you probably know, J.P. won't respond here. He does answer questions from fans on the radio every Wednesday, but not about players under contract to other organizations.

However, you're welcome to my opinion. Gonzalez, the first overall pick in the 2000 draft, was obviously a "can't miss" prospect out of high school who hit 17 HR as a 20-year-old in Double-A. I have no idea what happened to his power the following year, but the Marlins gave up on him -- it would be interesting to know why. Adrian's still not exactly mashing in Triple-A, but he is only 22 and had enough of a bounce-back season to raise his value again. Presumably the Rangers would want a top young arm for him, so is his "upside" worth that price? Depends on the prospect.

Other minor-leaguers have similar or better credentials for the short term. Eric Crozier, admittedly older but still improving, had a much better offensive year in a league that favours pitchers more than the PCL. I wouldn't count on him as an everyday big-leaguer (yet) so I sure wouldn't consider Gonzalez, except as a long-term possibility.

Adrian Gonzalez had a wrist injury that led to the power decline that Coach speaks of.

JKCL, I'm not too worried about Gross. He's struggled in his debut at pretty much every level, and the same thing's happening here in the majors. The fact that his walk rate remains so strong gives me increased hope. He may be only ordinary next season (and should be kept largely in a platoon with Sparky), but by 2006 he should be a solid low-cost left fielder.

JKCL, Gross has looked very comfortable defensively (since that adventurous first series at Yankee Stadium) and at the plate, even if his numbers aren't outstanding yet. His AAA season was probably affected by the elbow problem, and we don't know how much it's bothering him now, but it's supposed to improve with an offseason of rest and conditioning.

I agree that he hasn't "proven" he belongs beyond a shadow of a doubt, but he's had only 88 AB. He's given every indication that he'll do well up here eventually, showing a good eye, patience and power, though the pitchers have won their share of battles so far. Gabe's always been a winner -- a superb athlete who has met every other challenge since choosing baseball. Without making outlandish predictions or comparisons, he's far more likely to have a solid career than to wash out. If he does struggle early next year and needs to work on some things in Syracuse or regain his confidence, I'd rather see Crozier in the OF than Cat, but it's nice to have some depth among LH bats.

What does "how free agents are lining up to come to Toronto" mean? I presume it's intended as sarcasm, but I don't get it. Batista could have gone anywhere and had numerous offers but chose the Jays, and while they didn't work out as well as anyone hoped, so did Ligtenberg, Hentgen and Adams. Among guys they went after, only Worrell turned them down, citing a preference for staying in the NL. The only problem attracting free agents here is an inability to outbid the big spenders.

And reading quotes from JP he seems to like how Gross looks.

Not in jeans.

On the field.

Well, maybe he likes him in jeans too.

Anyone else see a spot opening up for one of Da Box's favourite lefty-mashing backup C/1B?

Hint: He's back in the bigs right now with the Dodgers.

I'd give Tom Wilson 150 AB. But I'm not sure they'll have the roster space for him next year.

If Delgado walks, is JP counting on the offense being better simply by default? By bringing Cat back, the offense is going to be nearly identical to this year's. As has been asked a million times, where is the power going to come from?

I've said this before, but the offense, even minus Delgado, has to be better next year. This year, the team was so decimated by injuries they were playing middle infielders at 1B, DH and LF, often in the same game. They had over half a season by Josh Phelps, who hit worse than a middle infielder. Just by removing him, as much as I still think he'll do great things, the DH production has to get better. CF was injured Vern plus Johnson; CF next year should be healthy Vern. LF was Johnson, next year it'll be Gross, which should be a large improvement. RF was Johnson/Rios; next year it'll be a more mature Rios, hopefully a bit more power. SS was a mess, wouldn't be hard to top. At 3B, Hinske might not get better, but he can't get worse (that's not a dare!). Pretty legitimately, the Jays can expect improved actual production from C, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, and DH. Hudson could take a step forward. If this team stands pat and re-signs Delgado, the offense is in great shape.

The Jays need to work hard at getting Ryan Howard from Philadelphia. He's blocked by Thome. I"m sure there will be lots of temas asking about him, but it's worth a shot.

JKCL, I'm not too worried about Gross. He's struggled in his debut at pretty much every level, and the same thing's happening here in the majors. The fact that his walk rate remains so strong gives me increased hope. He may be only ordinary next season (and should be kept largely in a platoon with Sparky), but by 2006 he should be a solid low-cost left fielder.

I've liked Gross from the start, and every level he does the same thing- struggles with BA and power, keeps his walk rate up, then increases his power and BA. This year, he was doing the same in Syracuse, his OPS was on the way up quickly, then JP called him up. His AAA OPS would've looked a lot better if they'd kept him there, but I'm glad they decided to throw him into the majors- that much more of the adjustment period should be out of the way. It seems like he's hurt a lot- I know about the elbow this year, OTH there were some problems that caused/coincided with his AA slump.

I don't think JP is going to get Gonzalez or Howard. JP has said that you CAN have too many rookies so he has downplayed Crozier's chances of playing 1B next year. The Jays have their eyes on an established major leaguer, or Delgado, to play first.

Phelps, who hit worse than a middle infielder.

Not just any middle infielder:

Josh Phelps' 2004 OPS vs. RHP = .577
Neifi Perez' 2004 OPS vs. RHP = .590

The comp isn't fair because Neifi strikes out less than half as often and is much better with the glove.

the Jays can expect improved actual production from C, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, and DH

Right on, dp. And although there isn't any "hard" evidence that hitting (or slumping) is contagious, everybody that's ever been in a dugout knows that when your big guns are misfiring, that has a ripple effect, as other hitters, being human, try too hard to compensate. When the 3-4-5 guys are in a groove, the supporting cast relaxes and has fun, which leads to getting on base more often. When the 3-4-5 are Johnson, Hinske and Zaun, as the Jays were reduced to all too often in June, your entire lineup is in trouble, and they all know it. So production from each individual position should improve, and the cumulative effect of that will be greater than the sum of the parts.

While I agree with many of you that this is too much money, they need someone like Cat who can, for at least 120 games, hit over .300, even if it isn't for power. It's been said before on this site that you need to be smart and lucky to win with a small budget. Lucky means making things happen and manufacturing runs. Cat is one of the best professional hitters around and can be invaluable to run manufacturing. He could easily be worth $2.7 million to this team.

the team was so decimated by injuries

Decimation was a form of collective punishment in the Roman army, whereby every tenth man in a mutionous or demoralised party of soldiers was executed, so to decimate in English was used to mean 'destroy a small but noticeable part of'. Most people would say they know some of that, and yet that useful word has been irreversibly corrupted into just one more synonym for 'damage beyond repair, virtually destroy', but with the advantage of looking rather classy and learned. Not to be used even in the original sense on grounds of ambiguity.

I was this close to flaming Kondescending Kingsley, but I decided to honour board rules and keep my mouth shut. But man, do people like him ever make me mad.

Re Adrian Gonzalez:

On Feb 23, 2004, Baseball America rated Gonzalez Texas's top prospect. (Since then, his minor-league numbers have only improved.)Josh Boyd wrote:

"Strengths: Gonzalez’ pure hitting approach and sweet lefthanded stroke have conjured comparisons to Rafael Palmeiro. Gonzalez has great balance with a short, quick swing. He sprays line drives all over the field, hitting fastballs and offspeed pitches alike. Though he’s geared to smoke balls into the gaps now, he projects to develop above-average longball power in time. Defensively, Gonzalez is a Gold Glover in the making. He has soft hands and demonstrates excellent footwork around the bag. He’s already adept at making plays to his backhand and aggressive in making plays with his strong, accurate arm on relays or throws across the diamond.

Weaknesses: The effects of his wrist surgery made it hard for Gonzalez to turn on pitches on the inner half of the plate. Some scouts question just how much power he’ll develop, though he should be a doubles machine—maybe more along the lines of Mark Grace than Palmeiro. Gonzalez isn’t a natural athlete and some scouts are concerned about his soft body. He’s a 20 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale. He had shown a fair amount of patience, but his walk rate dipped below an acceptable level in 2003.

The Future: After getting his swing together toward the end of the season and in the Arizona Fall League, Gonzalez spent the offseason working on his conditioning. Texas believes it will get its first look at a fully healthy Gonzalez this season at Triple-A Oklahoma. When he’s ready to jump to Arlington in 2005, Mark Teixeira likely will move to the outfield."

At 21 or 22, this is a guy I would rather have than Crozier--hands down.

Would you still like him as much when the Rangers insist on something like Vernon, Rios or Lilly in return?

Re 1B what about trading for Adrian Gonzalez of the Rangers (.304/.364/.457 at AAA Oklahoma)? Texas already has Teixeira. Gonzalez has high upside and would be extremely cheap. The Jays could save $10-13 million in salary, get good production, and expand their nucleus of talented young players (he's around 21 or 22).

If you translate those numbers, Gonzalez hits for even less power than Cat.

I'd rather have Ryan Howard.

With Thome in place for a _long_ time in Philadelphia, he is going to ne traded. And Howard, unlike Gonzalez, has some real power:

AA: 297/386/647, 37 HR, 102 RBI, 46/129 BB/K
AAA: 270/362/604, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 14/37 BB/K

Howard is either going to contend for HR records or strikeout records. I suspect one of those numbers is going to have to decline for the other to be sustained in the majors.

You are probably right, Ryan, but Canseco had similar numbers. Juan Gone wasn't far off, nor was Daryl Strawberry. Many great power hitters strike out 125-130 times a season, but over 150 is relatively rare.

And Howard is already at 171 in less than 500 at-bats.

You are probably right, Ryan, but Canseco had similar numbers. Juan Gone wasn't far off, nor was Daryl Strawberry.

That's just not right.

Ryan Howard struck out 166 times this year in AA and AAA in 560 PA, or 30% of his PAs. He turned 24 last offseason.

At age 20, Canseco whiffed 127 times in 484 PA in Modesto, or 26%.
At age 21, he whiffed 121 times in 514 PA between AA and AAA, or 24%.
At 22 he was in the majors. By his 24th birthday he had over 70 homers in the majors.

At age 19, Strawberry had 105 Ks in 502 PA in Lynchburg, 23%.
At age 20, he had 145 Ks in 535 PA in AA Jackson, 27%.
At 21 he was in the majors. Before age 24 he had 81 homers in the bigs.

At age 20, Gonzalez had 98 Ks in 547 PA in AA, 18%. He got a cup of coffee and struck out 17 times in 66 PA, 26%.
At age 21, he struck out 109 times in 537 PA in AAA, 20%. Another cup, this time 18 Ks in 95 PA, 19%.
At 22 he was in Texas to stay. He had 121 HRs before his 24th bday.

Howard is 3+ years older than all of those guys were in AA, and he strikes out a lot more than they did.

Au contraire, I was responding to Ryan's assertion that one or other of the (HR and K) numbers was going to have to decline. My point wasn't that Canseco, Gonzalez or Strawberry were precisely comparable to him. They did, as you point out, strike out somewhat less and more importantly were much younger.

My point was that they were able to post in the majors lines fairly similar to Howard's.

My point was that they were able to post in the majors lines fairly similar to Howard's.

Once you've proven you can hit in the majors, K's are no big deal. Jim Thome may strike out 175 times a year, but he still draws walks and hits a lot of HR.

However, high K-rates in the minors can be a bit of a red flag.

Russell Branyan put up similar numbers to Howard in the high minors, but so far he hasn't managed to make enough contact to be a starter in the majors.

Even so, I'd be willing to roll the dice on Howard. He could be scary good.

Some random Barry Bonds facts:

His K/BB currently stands at 33/203. He has more HR than strikeouts. I wonder how often that happens...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dimagjo01.shtml
He has more HR than strikeouts. I wonder how often that happens...


How about 361 homers and 369 strikeouts over an entire career? COMN.

It's true that Gonzalez has yet to show a ton of power since his wrist injury. Although hitting .308/.364/.457 at AAA--his first full year at that level--following a wrist injury is not bad at all. Power often develops late, and Gonzalez is still very young (he turned 22 in May). His ceiling may turn out to be comparable to that of Catalanotto, but because of his youth, it's hard to say. If he can hit like Cat (possibly with more power), without the injuries, and, as advertised, play an above-average 1B, I'd say he would be a valuable pickup.

Howard may hit 30-40 HR, but I have to admit I'm not that crazy about guys who K 30% of the time.

Crozier may be "still improving", but most 26-year olds have pretty much maxed out their upside (cf. Simon Pond).

DiMag was the poster boy for HR/K. In 1941, both he and Williams were lights out in the category, and just about every other.

I don't see the signing as either good or bad. It all depends on what else happens in the off-season. Cat is only eating into the available money by $400K as they were already spending $2.3 million on him. Overpaid? One year too many? Probably but if he stays healthy he'll earn his money. Granted he hasn't done much in his career to prove he CAN stay healthy so concerns in that regard are very valid.

I think the bigger matter is that the Jays were bad offensively this year. VERY bad. Despite how good they were in 2003 I don't see much promise for them approaching those numbers again, particularly if Delgado is replaced by someone who will likely be significantly inferior. What they needed was improvement and increased power, not status quo. $2.7 million can pay a very hefty piece of a salary like Magglio Ordonez might command, especially when combined with Delgado dollars.

And as many point out, this signing steers the Jays further towards status quo than away. They needed to take a risk on some potential front line players. Instead this is another step towards an average at best offence. I'm afraid 2005 Toronto might look a lot like the 2003 Indians. Cat comes back, Delgado leaves, Player(s) X come in to fill Delgado's shoes. Unless the Jays start moving average looking players like Johnson and Hinske off the roster and replace them with above average players then I don't see where the improvement in the next two or three years is going to come from.

After watching for three off-seasons and the beginning of this off-season, I have to say I'm underwhelmed by JP's shopping skills. We've seen a lot of bargain bit players like Myers and Zaun and capable fill-ins for departing players like Cat and Batista and Lilly. But so far we haven't seen much to really IMPROVE the team from it's current standing. A great deal of that improvement means faith in young players that may or may not be rewarded years from now. It means faith in Wells and Hinske who are due to make veteran dollars to carry a big load. I expected that in 2005, the fourth season of JP's tenure that we'd be moving forward and not retreating in lineup quality. Vernon Wells could be the best offensive player in the lineup next year and that's a big problem.

The problem with JP is that he has no choice but to bank on the kids because he doesn't have a large budget.

The Jays will never contend unless several of the kids develop into all-star calibre players.

One can only hope that Hinske re-enters the realm of average. What a horrrrible season this has been. Not that it is anyone in the front offices fault, but it is still disappointing. I think they should just combine the Jays and Expos roster and see if it can compete in the division. iiick