In a rather dismal season for the Blue Jays, many of us have taken a keener interest in the minor leagues. As my own knowledge of Blue Jays prospects has increased, so has my interest in the context of the stats being compiled by The Future.
To begin to get a grip on the significance of things like Shaun Marcum's 2.28 ERA at High-A and Jamie Vermilyea's 4.20 K/BB in Double-A, I compiled a table of averages for every professional baseball league currently playing in North America. Before we get to that table, a note on sources used for this article: League stats and stats for players from Triple-A down to A-ball are courtesy of Baseball America. Short-season A-ball stats are from MinorLeagueBaseball.com, as are Rookie level stats.
Table 1: League Averages
Next, we need the stats of individual Blue Jay prospects. The "Age" given in the tables below is 2004 Baseball Age. In the interest of keeping the tables readable, I haven't included every pitcher from every team. Brackets are used to denote players who have moved on to another level of the farm system.
Table 2: Unadjusted Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Triple-A Stats of players now in Toronto
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
A Charleston Alley Cats
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
Now we're ready to put it all together and come up with league-ajusted numbers. I chose to do this by normalizing - for example, the ERA given here is LeagueERA / PlayerERA * 100. A league average pitcher will score 100 across the board; numbers higher than 100 indicate an above-average player by that measure. Innings Pitched is included in these talbes as some of the sample sizes are laughably small, especially for the short-season clubs in Auburn and Pulaski.
Note that adjustments have been made for League only. These numbers are not adjusted for park, level of competition, or age.
Table 3: Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Triple-A Stats of players now in Toronto
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
A Charleston Alley Cats
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
Rather than provide further analysis or commentary on these numbers, I'm going to leave it at that and let the Box discussion draw conclusions.
To begin to get a grip on the significance of things like Shaun Marcum's 2.28 ERA at High-A and Jamie Vermilyea's 4.20 K/BB in Double-A, I compiled a table of averages for every professional baseball league currently playing in North America. Before we get to that table, a note on sources used for this article: League stats and stats for players from Triple-A down to A-ball are courtesy of Baseball America. Short-season A-ball stats are from MinorLeagueBaseball.com, as are Rookie level stats.
Table 1: League Averages
LG LEV ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP GThe "G" column is the number of games that have been played in the league; Leagues with stats in bold include a Blue Jay affiliate.
GCL R 3.69 7.45 3.12 0.45 2.39 1.27 172
NYP A- 3.78 7.87 3.18 0.56 2.47 1.32 251
FLA A+ 3.86 7.01 3.40 0.60 2.06 1.34 598
MID A 3.99 7.85 3.21 0.70 2.45 1.30 692
SOU AA 4.04 7.56 3.19 0.85 2.37 1.32 490
CAR A+ 4.10 6.73 3.27 0.68 2.06 1.35 390
EAS AA 4.22 6.93 3.31 0.85 2.10 1.35 601
APP R+ 4.24 8.19 3.38 0.71 2.42 1.34 165
NL MLB 4.26 6.60 3.38 1.09 1.95 1.39 783
SAL A 4.37 7.72 3.43 0.83 2.25 1.36 793
TEX AA 4.39 7.19 3.29 0.78 2.19 1.39 405
ARI R 4.45 7.75 3.69 0.41 2.10 1.50 122
NWN A- 4.46 7.81 3.65 0.76 2.14 1.39 148
INT AAA 4.49 6.72 3.12 1.02 2.15 1.37 710
AL MLB 4.59 6.35 3.38 1.12 1.88 1.42 682
CAL A+ 4.60 7.25 3.43 0.80 2.11 1.46 497
PCL AAA 4.82 6.68 3.29 1.08 2.03 1.45 807
PIO R+ 5.51 7.94 4.46 0.81 1.78 1.59 141
Overall avg: 4.32 7.31 3.40 0.78 2.16 1.38 469
Next, we need the stats of individual Blue Jay prospects. The "Age" given in the tables below is 2004 Baseball Age. In the interest of keeping the tables readable, I haven't included every pitcher from every team. Brackets are used to denote players who have moved on to another level of the farm system.
Table 2: Unadjusted Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Adam Peterson 25 6.2 9.45 7.26 7.26 2.90 1.00 2.26
Aquilino Lopez 29 22.2 7.54 6.08 2.84 1.62 2.14 1.58
Dave Maurer 29 44.1 3.45 9.39 3.88 1.02 2.42 1.32
Jason Arnold 25 37 3.65 3.65 2.92 1.46 1.25 1.41
Josue Matos 26 97.2 4.79 7.41 2.87 1.30 2.58 1.35
Ryan Glynn 29 54 4.67 7.17 3.17 0.67 2.26 1.28
Talley Haines 27 55.1 4.88 6.04 1.80 1.63 3.36 1.31
League - - 4.49 6.72 3.12 1.02 2.15 1.37
Triple-A Stats of players now in Toronto
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
(David Bush) 24 99.2 4.06 7.98 1.81 0.64 4.40 1.29
(Josh Towers) 27 36 2.50 6.25 1.75 1.25 3.57 1.11
(Kev Frederick) 27 27.1 0.99 8.63 2.99 0.66 2.89 1.00
(Mike Nakamura) 27 33.1 3.78 11.15 2.72 0.54 4.10 1.06
(Sean Douglass) 25 89 4.75 7.48 3.74 0.71 2.00 1.45
(Vinny Chulk) 25 28.2 2.83 8.30 3.51 1.60 2.36 1.35
League - - 4.49 6.72 3.12 1.02 2.15 1.37
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Brandon League 21 67.1 3.07 6.84 3.35 0.27 2.04 1.15
Frank Rosario 23 16.1 5.51 6.71 4.47 1.12 1.50 1.55
Gustavo Chacin 23 108.2 3.64 6.65 3.16 1.25 2.11 1.27
Jay Vermilyea 22 34.2 2.60 5.53 1.32 0.53 4.20 0.96
Josh Banks 21 54 5.33 6.00 3.17 1.00 1.89 1.33
(Adam Peterson) 25 28.1 2.54 12.17 3.20 0.32 3.80 1.07
(Kev Frederick) 27 21.1 1.27 11.09 2.13 0.43 5.20 0.95
League - - 4.22 6.93 3.31 0.85 2.10 1.35
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Brian Reed 23 14.2 4.30 10.77 1.27 1.27 8.50 1.34
Bub Buzachero 23 45 2.40 9.40 3.20 0.60 2.94 1.24
Ismael Ramirez 23 122 3.02 6.64 1.62 0.22 4.09 1.15
Justin James 22 30.1 4.75 7.77 3.89 0.30 2.00 1.53
Shaun Marcum 22 43.1 2.28 9.61 0.63 0.63 15.33 1.07
(Frank Rosario) 23 17.1 4.67 8.42 5.79 1.05 1.45 1.58
(Jay Vermilyea) 22 55.1 3.09 6.04 2.12 0.65 2.85 1.22
(Josh Banks) 21 60 1.80 9.00 1.20 0.60 7.50 0.95
League - - 3.86 7.01 3.40 0.60 2.06 1.34
A Charleston Alley Cats
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Danny Core 22 110.1 3.59 7.19 3.11 0.98 2.32 1.26
Davis Romero 21 78.2 2.40 9.78 2.30 0.58 4.25 0.97
Felix Romero 24 66.2 2.97 12.51 2.58 0.54 4.84 1.13
Thomas Mastny 23 113.1 1.91 7.96 2.55 0.16 3.13 1.11
(Brian Reed) 23 26 0.35 9.69 1.73 0.00 5.60 0.85
(Justin James) 22 78 3.00 9.58 2.77 0.23 3.46 1.17
(Shaun Marcum) 22 79 3.19 9.46 1.82 0.80 5.19 1.01
League - - 4.37 7.72 3.43 0.83 2.25 1.36
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Casey Janssen 22 13.2 2.63 8.18 2.05 0.00 4.00 1.29
Casey McKenzie 21 35 3.60 7.46 1.80 0.77 4.14 1.17
Chris Leonard 23 26.1 3.76 10.34 2.41 0.69 4.29 1.15
Dewon Day 23 15 1.20 9.60 3.00 0.00 3.20 1.33
Erik Rico 24 26.1 1.37 7.24 1.38 0.69 5.25 1.07
Joey McLaughlin 23 20 2.25 10.80 4.05 0.00 2.67 1.15
Mike MacDonald 22 38.1 1.41 6.85 1.42 0.24 4.83 0.81
League - - 3.78 7.87 3.18 0.56 2.47 1.32
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Adrian Martin 19 34 3.97 9.26 0.79 0.26 11.67 1.21
Brian Grant 19 26 2.08 5.19 2.42 0.00 2.14 1.23
Chi-Hung Cheng 19 35.1 3.06 10.51 4.10 0.77 2.56 1.34
Derek Tate 22 27.1 1.32 10.30 1.33 0.33 7.75 0.81
Raymon Sanchez 20 18 2.50 8.50 3.50 1.00 2.43 1.67
Russ Savickas 20 11 2.45 6.55 1.64 0.00 4.00 0.82
League - - 4.24 8.19 3.38 0.71 2.42 1.34
Now we're ready to put it all together and come up with league-ajusted numbers. I chose to do this by normalizing - for example, the ERA given here is LeagueERA / PlayerERA * 100. A league average pitcher will score 100 across the board; numbers higher than 100 indicate an above-average player by that measure. Innings Pitched is included in these talbes as some of the sample sizes are laughably small, especially for the short-season clubs in Auburn and Pulaski.
Note that adjustments have been made for League only. These numbers are not adjusted for park, level of competition, or age.
Table 3: Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Adam Peterson 25 6.2 47 108 43 35 46 61
Aquilino Lopez 29 22.2 60 90 110 63 99 87
Dave Maurer 29 44.1 130 140 80 100 112 104
Jason Arnold 25 37 123 54 107 70 58 97
Josue Matos 26 97.2 94 110 109 79 120 101
Ryan Glynn 29 54 96 107 99 153 105 107
Talley Haines 27 55.1 92 90 174 63 156 105
Triple-A Stats of players now in Toronto
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
(David Bush) 24 99.2 111 119 172 161 204 106
(Josh Towers) 27 36 180 93 178 82 166 123
(Kev Frederick) 27 27.1 453 128 104 154 134 137
(Mike Nakamura) 27 33.1 119 166 115 188 190 129
(Sean Douglass) 25 89 94 111 83 144 93 94
(Vinny Chulk) 25 28.2 159 123 89 64 110 101
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Brandon League 21 67.1 137 99 99 318 97 118
Frank Rosario 23 16.1 77 97 74 76 72 87
Gustavo Chacin 23 108.2 116 96 105 68 100 107
Jay Vermilyea 22 34.2 162 80 251 162 200 140
Josh Banks 21 54 79 87 104 85 90 101
(Adam Peterson) 25 28.1 166 176 103 266 181 126
(Kev Frederick) 27 21.1 332 160 155 200 248 142
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Brian Reed 23 14.2 90 154 269 47 413 100
Bub Buzachero 23 45 161 134 106 100 143 108
Ismael Ramirez 23 122 128 95 210 270 199 117
Justin James 22 30.1 81 111 88 200 97 88
Shaun Marcum 22 43.1 169 137 544 96 744 125
(Frank Rosario) 23 17.1 83 120 59 57 71 85
(Jay Vermilyea) 22 55.1 125 86 160 92 138 110
(Josh Banks) 21 60 214 128 284 100 364 141
A Charleston Alley Cats
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Danny Core 22 110.1 122 93 110 85 103 108
Davis Romero 21 78.2 182 127 149 144 189 140
Felix Romero 24 66.2 147 162 133 153 215 120
Thomas Mastny 23 113.1 229 103 135 522 139 123
(Brian Reed) 23 26 1248 126 198 999 249 161
(Justin James) 22 78 146 124 124 360 154 117
(Shaun Marcum) 22 79 137 122 188 104 230 135
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Casey Janssen 22 13.2 144 104 155 999 162 102
Casey McKenzie 21 35 105 95 177 73 168 112
Chris Leonard 23 26.1 101 132 132 81 173 114
Dewon Day 23 15 315 122 106 999 129 99
Erik Rico 24 26.1 276 92 231 81 212 123
Joey McLaughlin 23 20 168 137 79 999 108 114
Mike MacDonald 22 38.1 268 87 224 238 195 162
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
Name Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP
Adrian Martin 19 34 107 113 426 270 481 111
Brian Grant 19 26 204 63 139 999 88 109
Chi-Hung Cheng 19 35.1 139 128 82 93 106 100
Derek Tate 22 27.1 322 126 254 215 320 165
Raymon Sanchez 20 18 170 104 97 71 100 80
Russ Savickas 20 11 173 80 207 999 165 163
Rather than provide further analysis or commentary on these numbers, I'm going to leave it at that and let the Box discussion draw conclusions.
