It certainly seems that in every second thread the conversation invariably turns to whether or not Carlos Delgado and Miguel Batista will be traded. This is my attempt to keep all the discussion in one place.
Here's my thoughts. Everything that follows is 100% speculation; I have absolutely no idea what the Jays will do.
There's a couple things to remember when discussing a Delgado trade:
It's the first of these that is the real problem. Delgado has expressed on numerous occasions his willingness to exercise his trade clause, and that at a minimum he wants a multi-year extension with the team he's being traded to in order to accept a trade. If Delgado sticks by this, then he's likely not going anywhere, because I can't see him getting a contract before the winter. If Delgado is willing to drop the extension demand, then he could wind up anywhere.
I can't imagine Delgado's large contract for 2004 will turn off other teams, as I figure J.P. will be willing to eat some or all of the contract if it brings it the right prospect. This willingness to accept sunk costs as sunk costs means that Delgado could wind up anywhere, as the team accepting him does not have to worry about budgetary concerns. By looking at every team in a playoff hunt, we can figure out where Delgado might end up:
New York Yankees - 7 Games Ahead - AL East
They're the Yankees. If they want Delgado, they'll get him. They've got other holes to fill first, though.
Boston Red Sox - 1 Game Lead - Wild Card
1B/DH doesn't look like their prime concern right now. At best a dark horse.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 6.5 Back - Wild Card
Yeah, right.
Chicago White Sox - 0.5 Game Lead - AL Central
Konerko and Frank Thomas have been their two best hitters this year, but Thomas just went on the DL and may not be back for the rest of the year. If Delgado is willing to go to the windy city, this looks like a great fit.
Minnesota Twins - 0.5 Games Back - AL Central
Since they're keeping Morneau in Rochester, they need a DH/1B rather desperately. Hence all the Delgado to the Twins wishcasting on the Box over the last few days.
Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians - 5.5 Games Back - AL Central
Yeah, right.
Texas Rangers - 2 Game Lead - AL West
Teixeira has been superb at first, but Fullmer has been mediocre at DH. The Rangers look to have a great future, so I doubt they'd mortgage their farm system for a better shot this year. Besides, they need pitching a whole lot more.
Oakland - 2 Games Back in AL West - 1 Game Back in Wild Card
I like this fit, though both Hatteberg and Durazo have been playing well. Still, though, we know Beane and Ricciardi are willing to work together.
Anaheim - 2.5 Games Back in AL West - 1.5 Game Back in Wild Card
If the Halos are willing to jettison Erstad or have him DH (god forbid), this works quite well. To many Anaheim looks like a perfect fit for a long term deal for Delgado, but with Kotchman in the wings I can't see it happening. Unless the Angels give us Kotchman for Delgado. I'd love that deal.
Philadelpha - 1 Game Lead - NL East
Have Thome. Don't need Delgado.
Atlanta - 1 Game Back - NL East
They don't seem to come up much in the Delgado discussion, but with a 88 year old Julio Franco at first, they could sure use him. If Carlos is willing to go to Atlanta, I think the Jays can pull off a deal that helps both sides.
Florida - 1.5 Games Back - NL East
Hee Seop Choi has been hitting the tar out of the ball. No trade here.
New York Mets - 2 Games Back - NL East
The Mets are only two games back?!? When did that happen. Anyhow, Piazza is playing first for them, so no deal here.
St. Louis - 7 Games Ahead - NL Central
Pujols is at first. Next.
Chicago Cubs - 1 Game Back - Wild Card
Like the man he was traded for, Derrek Lee has also been hitting the tar out of the ball. Next contestant!
Cincinatti Reds - 1.5 Games Back - Wild Card, Milwaukee Brewers - 2.5 Games Back - Wild Card
About as likely as Michael Moore voting Republican.
Houston Astros - 4.5 Games Back - Wild Card
Look more like sellers than buyers at this point in time.
Los Angeles Dodgers - 0.5 Games Ahead - NL West
With his buddy Shawn Green in LA, it's been suggested that Carlos would waive his no trade clause to play for the Dodgers. But if that happens, where does Green play?
San Francisco Giants - 0.5 Games Ahead - Wild Card
I really like this fit, as Minor and Snow have done very little at first. Who do the Giants have that the Jays might want?
San Diego Padres - 2 Games Back in NL West - 1.5 Games Back in Wild Card
Nevin says he'll be back on July 20th, but I can't say I entirely believe him. If Nevin is out for a long time, it could happen, but it's longer shot than some of the other teams on this list.
That's all of them
Miguel Batista isn't going anywhere. I'm sure every team on the planet has called asking for him, as he's a veteran pitcher signed to a below market value contract. I think my slowpitch team even called asking for him, but J.P. said he wasn't interested in a good-field no-hit DH, so I'm still not a Jay.
The reason he's not going anywhere is simple: You don't trade a guy you just signed to a multi-year deal in the first year you have him. It's one of those unwritten rules in baseball that are seldom broken. If you start trading guys you just signed, you scare off way too many free-agents the following year who would have considered signing with you. Trading Batista is one of those deals that looks great in roto, but doesn't work so well in real life, as we're dealing with REAL players.
Also not going anywhere. The Twins know exactly what they have in Morneau, and aren't going to give him up for cheap. I can picture the following phone call taking place.
J.P. - Hello
Twins GM Terry Ryan - Hey J.P., it's Ryan over in Minny.
J.P. - Oh hey Terry. What's up?
Terry - I'll keep it short and sweet. What will it take to get Batista.
J.P. - We want Morneau.
[CLICK]
J.P. - Hello?
The really annoying thing is that three years from now Morneau is going to hit around 40 homers, and there's going to be all kinds of people in the media saying "J.P. could have had this guy if he wanted to".
The above is my take on the situation. Let's hear yours!
Here's my thoughts. Everything that follows is 100% speculation; I have absolutely no idea what the Jays will do.
Carlos Delgado
There's a couple things to remember when discussing a Delgado trade:
- He has a no trade clause
- He makes a ton of money
It's the first of these that is the real problem. Delgado has expressed on numerous occasions his willingness to exercise his trade clause, and that at a minimum he wants a multi-year extension with the team he's being traded to in order to accept a trade. If Delgado sticks by this, then he's likely not going anywhere, because I can't see him getting a contract before the winter. If Delgado is willing to drop the extension demand, then he could wind up anywhere.
I can't imagine Delgado's large contract for 2004 will turn off other teams, as I figure J.P. will be willing to eat some or all of the contract if it brings it the right prospect. This willingness to accept sunk costs as sunk costs means that Delgado could wind up anywhere, as the team accepting him does not have to worry about budgetary concerns. By looking at every team in a playoff hunt, we can figure out where Delgado might end up:
New York Yankees - 7 Games Ahead - AL East
They're the Yankees. If they want Delgado, they'll get him. They've got other holes to fill first, though.
Boston Red Sox - 1 Game Lead - Wild Card
1B/DH doesn't look like their prime concern right now. At best a dark horse.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 6.5 Back - Wild Card
Yeah, right.
Chicago White Sox - 0.5 Game Lead - AL Central
Konerko and Frank Thomas have been their two best hitters this year, but Thomas just went on the DL and may not be back for the rest of the year. If Delgado is willing to go to the windy city, this looks like a great fit.
Minnesota Twins - 0.5 Games Back - AL Central
Since they're keeping Morneau in Rochester, they need a DH/1B rather desperately. Hence all the Delgado to the Twins wishcasting on the Box over the last few days.
Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians - 5.5 Games Back - AL Central
Yeah, right.
Texas Rangers - 2 Game Lead - AL West
Teixeira has been superb at first, but Fullmer has been mediocre at DH. The Rangers look to have a great future, so I doubt they'd mortgage their farm system for a better shot this year. Besides, they need pitching a whole lot more.
Oakland - 2 Games Back in AL West - 1 Game Back in Wild Card
I like this fit, though both Hatteberg and Durazo have been playing well. Still, though, we know Beane and Ricciardi are willing to work together.
Anaheim - 2.5 Games Back in AL West - 1.5 Game Back in Wild Card
If the Halos are willing to jettison Erstad or have him DH (god forbid), this works quite well. To many Anaheim looks like a perfect fit for a long term deal for Delgado, but with Kotchman in the wings I can't see it happening. Unless the Angels give us Kotchman for Delgado. I'd love that deal.
Philadelpha - 1 Game Lead - NL East
Have Thome. Don't need Delgado.
Atlanta - 1 Game Back - NL East
They don't seem to come up much in the Delgado discussion, but with a 88 year old Julio Franco at first, they could sure use him. If Carlos is willing to go to Atlanta, I think the Jays can pull off a deal that helps both sides.
Florida - 1.5 Games Back - NL East
Hee Seop Choi has been hitting the tar out of the ball. No trade here.
New York Mets - 2 Games Back - NL East
The Mets are only two games back?!? When did that happen. Anyhow, Piazza is playing first for them, so no deal here.
St. Louis - 7 Games Ahead - NL Central
Pujols is at first. Next.
Chicago Cubs - 1 Game Back - Wild Card
Like the man he was traded for, Derrek Lee has also been hitting the tar out of the ball. Next contestant!
Cincinatti Reds - 1.5 Games Back - Wild Card, Milwaukee Brewers - 2.5 Games Back - Wild Card
About as likely as Michael Moore voting Republican.
Houston Astros - 4.5 Games Back - Wild Card
Look more like sellers than buyers at this point in time.
Los Angeles Dodgers - 0.5 Games Ahead - NL West
With his buddy Shawn Green in LA, it's been suggested that Carlos would waive his no trade clause to play for the Dodgers. But if that happens, where does Green play?
San Francisco Giants - 0.5 Games Ahead - Wild Card
I really like this fit, as Minor and Snow have done very little at first. Who do the Giants have that the Jays might want?
San Diego Padres - 2 Games Back in NL West - 1.5 Games Back in Wild Card
Nevin says he'll be back on July 20th, but I can't say I entirely believe him. If Nevin is out for a long time, it could happen, but it's longer shot than some of the other teams on this list.
That's all of them
Miguel Batista
Miguel Batista isn't going anywhere. I'm sure every team on the planet has called asking for him, as he's a veteran pitcher signed to a below market value contract. I think my slowpitch team even called asking for him, but J.P. said he wasn't interested in a good-field no-hit DH, so I'm still not a Jay.
The reason he's not going anywhere is simple: You don't trade a guy you just signed to a multi-year deal in the first year you have him. It's one of those unwritten rules in baseball that are seldom broken. If you start trading guys you just signed, you scare off way too many free-agents the following year who would have considered signing with you. Trading Batista is one of those deals that looks great in roto, but doesn't work so well in real life, as we're dealing with REAL players.
Justin Morneau
Also not going anywhere. The Twins know exactly what they have in Morneau, and aren't going to give him up for cheap. I can picture the following phone call taking place.
J.P. - Hello
Twins GM Terry Ryan - Hey J.P., it's Ryan over in Minny.
J.P. - Oh hey Terry. What's up?
Terry - I'll keep it short and sweet. What will it take to get Batista.
J.P. - We want Morneau.
[CLICK]
J.P. - Hello?
The really annoying thing is that three years from now Morneau is going to hit around 40 homers, and there's going to be all kinds of people in the media saying "J.P. could have had this guy if he wanted to".
In Conclusion
The above is my take on the situation. Let's hear yours!
