What's the point of previewing a draft if you don't have a mock draft to go with it?

The draft begins Monday, June 7th. The Blue Jays will pick 16th in each round, with an additional ‘sandwich’ pick (#32 overall), and the Angles 3rd round pick (#85). The 2 extra picks are because of Kelvim Escobar signing with the Angles in the offseason. That gives the Jays 5 of the first 87 picks in the draft.

JP Ricciardi has stated that the team will likely go with pitchers early and often. However, the last two drafts the team has also taken a college hitter in the first round before the flurry of pitchers.

So what should we expect leading up to the Jays pick at #16?

Among college pitchers it appears that Jered Weaver, Jeff Niemann, Philip Humber, and Wade Townsend are locks to be taken before the Jays pick. It’s also very likely that Justin Verlander, Jeremy Sowers and Thomas Diamond will be off the board as well.

Stephen Drew is the only college position player that’s a virtual lock to go before the Jays pick. The latest word is that he's the likely choice of the Padres at #1 overall (although I think it's just a ploy to try to lower the bonus demands of Weaver).

Homer Bailey is a hard-throwing high school RHP out of Texas who I suspect will go higher than most where he’s projected, but will almost certainly not make it out of the top 10.

Among high school position players there’s two shortstops that will likely go prior to pick 16 in Chris Nelson and Matt Bush.

Adding those players up gets us to 11 players. Assuming that the Jays are again going to select a college player we should be able to narrow their pick down to a few players.

The four teams ahead of the Jays are Anaheim, Montreal, KC, and Arizona. Trying to get a good handle on what the Angles and Expos will do isn't easy. It appears that the Angles might go with a high ceiling HS player. With MLB owning the Expos you never know what might happen with their pick. It could be a 'signability' pick, or a player that might contribute quickly like last year when they selected Chad Cordero.

KC and Arizona are likely to be a little more predictable. Last year there was a bit of a ‘Moneyball’ effect on the draft with certain teams who started focusing more on college players and less on HS players. Two of those teams just happened to be the Royals and Diamondbacks who will pick in front of Toronto in each round. Chances are good that they’ll also be looking at the same players the Jays are looking at.

Among position players the Jays would likely be choosing between are Josh Fields (3B), Mike Ferris (1B), Danny Putnam (OF), and BJ Szymanski (OF). Among pitchers, the candidates will likely be David Purcey, Zach Jackson, Justin Orenduff, and Justin Hoyman (all starters). Of those 8 players the Jays will have at least 3 of those players to choose from with their first pick - if not, that means one of the top players dropped.

My sense is that the top 11 I outlined above will go in the first 15 picks. After that I think the rest of the first round is highly unpredictable. But having said that, here’s how I think the first round may unfold, and who I think the Jays could end up with after their first 6 selections (realizing that if I get one player out of 6 correct I'm doing really well).

2004 Mock Draft:

1.	Padres - Jered Weaver, P, Long Beach St
2.	Tigers – Jeff Niemann, P, Rice
3.	Mets – Homer Bailey, P, LaGrange HS
4.	Devil Rays – Stephen Drew, SS, Florida St
5.	Brewers – Philip Humber, P, Rice
6.	Indians – Jeremy Sowers, P, Vanderbilt
7.	Reds – Chris Nelson, SS, Redan HS
8.	Orioles – Justin Verlander, P, Old Dominion
9.	Rockies – Matt Bush, SS, Mission Bay HS
10.	Rangers – Wade Townsend, P, Rice
11.	Pirates – Neil Walker, SS, Pine Richland HS
12.	Angles – Trevor Plouffe, SS, Crespi HS
13.	Expos – Huston Street, P, Texas
14.	Royals – Josh Fields, 3B, Oklahoma St
15.	Diamondbacks – Thomas Diamond, P, New Orleans
16.	Blue Jays – Mike Ferris, 1B, Miami of Ohio
17.	Dodgers – Danny Putnam, OF, Stanford
18.	White Sox – Justin Orenduff, P, Virginia Commonwealth
19.	Cardinals – Zack Jackson, P, Texas A&M
20.	Twins – BJ Symanski, OF, Princeton
21.	Phillies – David Purcey, P, Oklahoma
22.	Twins – Glen Perkins, P, Minnesota
23.	Yankees – Scott Elbert, P, Seneca HS
24.	Athletics - Jon Zeringue, OF, LSU
25.	Twins – Mark Rogers, P, Mt Ararat HS
26.	Athletics – Kurt Suzuki, C, Cal St Fullerton
27.	Marlins – Eric Hurley, P, Wolfson HS
28.	Dodgers – Phillip Hughes, P, Foothill HS
29.	Royals – Landon Powell, C, South Carolina
30.	Rangers – Greg Golson, OF, John Connally HS
31.	Royals – Justin Hoyman, P, Florida
32.	Blue Jays – JP Howell, P, Texas


57.	Blue Jays - Matt Fox, P, Central Florida
83.	Blue Jays - Brad McCann, 3B, Clemson
87.	Blue Jays - Matt Durkin, P, San Jose
117.	Blue Jays – Josh Baker, P, Rice

Batter's Box Draft Coverage:
* College Pitchers - April 28th
* College Hitters - May 17th
* College Pitchers, Updated - May 21st
* A review of the 2 Ricciardi Drafts - May 26th
* Craig Burley's Top 100 College Pitchers & Hitters for 2004 at Hardball Times - May 28th
* Nowhere Men - June 1st
* Mock Draft - June 2nd
* Batter's Box Draft Day Coverage - June 7th and 8th

Next Monday in Da Box we'll have draft coverage as it happens. Shortly after each Blue Jay pick we'll list all Division I stats from 2002-2004, links to profiles & articles on each player, where the players ranked in Craig's rankings this season and anything else we (or you) find on each draftee.