The draft eligible college hitters are generally regarded as a weak class this year. As opposed to the strength of the college pitchers, as few as a handful of hitters will be selected in round 1 on June 7th. However, there are plenty of gems to be found if you’re willing to mine for them.
The stats listed are fairly straight forward, with the exception of aGPA. Thanks to the park factors and strength of schedules listed at Boyd's World adjusted statistics are possible to calculate. While not as thorough as Craig Burley’s adjusted statistics for 2003, aGPA still does a good job adjusting for parks and schedules (at least in my mind).
GPA is a stat created by Aaron Gleeman where GPA = ((OBP*1.8)+SLG)/4.
aGPA is GPA adjusted for parks and schedules. Park factors used for 2002 and 2004 are based on the park factors for 2000-2003. Park factors for 2003 are weighted average park factor for all stadiums a team played in 2003. Strength of schedule as presented in these listings is the average ISR of a team's opponents for each year listed.
Onto the prospects!
Following are a list of the top college hitting prospects, position, college, and batting side. Stats provided are through the games played on May 16th. Years listed are the years each player played in Division I.
1. Stephen Drew, SS, Florida State, Switch - The brother of J.D. Drew, Stephen is considered by most the top college position player in the draft. Spectulation has him going as high as #3 in the draft. However, opinions on Drew are mixed, and like his brother he has had some injuries in college.
2. B.J. Szymanski, OF, Princeton, Switch - Normally when you think of the Ivy League and baseball you're thinking of front office personnel. However, Szymanski is one that has the scouts drooling with size, power and speed.
3. Dustin Pedroia, SS, Arizona St, Right - One of the candidates for College Player of the Year, Pedroia has put up some strong numbers across the board. One thing to be aware of, however, is that playing baseball in the SW US has a Coors-like effect on the stats. For comparison sake, Aaron Hill had an aGPA of 0.422 last season before being taken 13th overall.
4. Danny Putnam, OF, Stanford, Left
5. Jeff Frazier, OF, Rutgers, Right
6. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, Florida State, Right
7. Brad McCann, 3B, Clemson, Right
8. Jon Zeringue, OF, Louisiana State, Right
Last season the Jays were able to find a couple of sleepers late in the draft. In the 18th round Toronto selected Ryan Roberts. Roberts is currently the starting 2B in Charleston and given his production so far he's moving up the Jays prospects rankings. In the 2003 NCAA season Roberts ranked fourth overall in Craig Burley's adjusted OWP.
Similarly, Jayce Tingler put up an OBP in excess of .500 at Missouri in 2003. Selected in the 10th round Tingler is starting in Dunedin this year and has an intriguing 31 BB+HBP against just 10 strikeouts.
So along those lines, here are 25 players that aren't as highly regarded, but have put up some interesting numbers that might be worth taking a flyer on. These players could go from as high as round 2 to as low as round 20 (or who knows, maybe not at all).
Players listed are sorted by 2004 aGPA:
Preliminary Batter's Box Draft Coverage:
* College Pitchers - April 28th
* A review of the 2 Ricciardi Drafts - May 26th
* Mock Draft - June 2nd
* Batter's Box Draft Day Coverage - June 7th
The stats listed are fairly straight forward, with the exception of aGPA. Thanks to the park factors and strength of schedules listed at Boyd's World adjusted statistics are possible to calculate. While not as thorough as Craig Burley’s adjusted statistics for 2003, aGPA still does a good job adjusting for parks and schedules (at least in my mind).
GPA is a stat created by Aaron Gleeman where GPA = ((OBP*1.8)+SLG)/4.
aGPA is GPA adjusted for parks and schedules. Park factors used for 2002 and 2004 are based on the park factors for 2000-2003. Park factors for 2003 are weighted average park factor for all stadiums a team played in 2003. Strength of schedule as presented in these listings is the average ISR of a team's opponents for each year listed.
Onto the prospects!
Following are a list of the top college hitting prospects, position, college, and batting side. Stats provided are through the games played on May 16th. Years listed are the years each player played in Division I.
1. Stephen Drew, SS, Florida State, Switch - The brother of J.D. Drew, Stephen is considered by most the top college position player in the draft. Spectulation has him going as high as #3 in the draft. However, opinions on Drew are mixed, and like his brother he has had some injuries in college.
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 157 0.338 0.472 0.669 0.510
2003 263 0.327 0.435 0.582 0.435
2002 204 0.402 0.457 0.750 0.539
2. B.J. Szymanski, OF, Princeton, Switch - Normally when you think of the Ivy League and baseball you're thinking of front office personnel. However, Szymanski is one that has the scouts drooling with size, power and speed.
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 164 0.378 0.453 0.646 0.394
2003 179 0.330 0.362 0.492 0.304
3. Dustin Pedroia, SS, Arizona St, Right - One of the candidates for College Player of the Year, Pedroia has put up some strong numbers across the board. One thing to be aware of, however, is that playing baseball in the SW US has a Coors-like effect on the stats. For comparison sake, Aaron Hill had an aGPA of 0.422 last season before being taken 13th overall.
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 197 0.411 0.514 0.655 0.384
2003 297 0.404 0.472 0.579 0.358
2002 236 0.347 0.417 0.432 0.288
4. Danny Putnam, OF, Stanford, Left
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 201 0.398 0.476 0.677 0.460
2003 230 0.348 0.423 0.630 0.403
5. Jeff Frazier, OF, Rutgers, Right
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 186 0.376 0.452 0.640 0.409
2003 213 0.315 0.399 0.516 0.330
6. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, Florida State, Right
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 212 0.377 0.447 0.679 0.498
2003 186 0.371 0.457 0.608 0.456
7. Brad McCann, 3B, Clemson, Right
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 206 0.388 0.462 0.660 0.526
2003 251 0.347 0.376 0.546 0.394
8. Jon Zeringue, OF, Louisiana State, Right
Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
2004 199 0.422 0.481 0.698 0.436
2003 227 0.339 0.406 0.577 0.386
2002 97 0.247 0.298 0.361 0.260
Last season the Jays were able to find a couple of sleepers late in the draft. In the 18th round Toronto selected Ryan Roberts. Roberts is currently the starting 2B in Charleston and given his production so far he's moving up the Jays prospects rankings. In the 2003 NCAA season Roberts ranked fourth overall in Craig Burley's adjusted OWP.
Similarly, Jayce Tingler put up an OBP in excess of .500 at Missouri in 2003. Selected in the 10th round Tingler is starting in Dunedin this year and has an intriguing 31 BB+HBP against just 10 strikeouts.
So along those lines, here are 25 players that aren't as highly regarded, but have put up some interesting numbers that might be worth taking a flyer on. These players could go from as high as round 2 to as low as round 20 (or who knows, maybe not at all).
Players listed are sorted by 2004 aGPA:
Player School Pos Year ABs Ave Obp Slg aGPA
Brad Hayes Arkansas State 3B 2004 135 0.407 0.462 0.704 0.544
Brad Hayes Arkansas State 3B 2003 209 0.321 0.367 0.493 0.359
Brad Hayes Arkansas State 3B 2002 197 0.335 0.412 0.442 0.433
Brendan Winn South Carolina OF 2004 189 0.349 0.444 0.720 0.520
Josh Morris Georgia OF/1B 2004 182 0.341 0.450 0.692 0.517
Matt Barket Tulane OF 2004 200 0.400 0.481 0.595 0.515
Chip Cannon The Citadel 1B 2004 185 0.368 0.533 0.697 0.501
Chip Cannon The Citadel 1B 2003 206 0.335 0.459 0.612 0.400
Landon Powell South Carolina C 2004 205 0.356 0.433 0.654 0.491
Landon Powell South Carolina C 2003 245 0.339 0.436 0.555 0.444
Landon Powell South Carolina C 2002 274 0.292 0.350 0.485 0.407
Jason Vargas Long Beach St 1B 2004 161 0.342 0.470 0.516 0.487
Wes Swackhamer Tulane OF 2004 185 0.368 0.447 0.573 0.485
Wes Swackhamer Tulane OF 2003 145 0.297 0.401 0.566 0.411
Ryan Jones East Carolina OF 2004 175 0.406 0.507 0.891 0.483
Ryan Jones East Carolina OF 2003 208 0.264 0.336 0.370 0.272
Ryan Jones East Carolina OF 2002 196 0.260 0.370 0.327 0.270
Matt Anderson UC Irvine Inf 2004 188 0.330 0.417 0.473 0.482
Matt Anderson UC Irvine Inf 2002 239 0.381 0.444 0.494 0.507
Greg Dini Tulane C 2004 188 0.372 0.418 0.606 0.479
Greg Dini Miami, Florida C 2002 85 0.247 0.270 0.353 0.247
Steve Pearce South Carolina Inf 2004 196 0.337 0.424 0.622 0.474
Dallas Morris LA-Lafayette 3B 2004 150 0.373 0.434 0.740 0.472
Dallas Morris LA-Lafayette 3B 2003 224 0.299 0.350 0.406 0.314
Dallas Morris LA-Lafayette 3B 2002 87 0.264 0.414 0.368 0.361
Mark Jurich Louisville OF 2004 216 0.361 0.431 0.708 0.469
Mark Jurich Louisville OF 2003 130 0.285 0.351 0.531 0.349
Mark Jurich Louisville OF 2002 203 0.365 0.443 0.724 0.480
Chris Campos Oregon State OF 2004 113 0.310 0.497 0.549 0.467
Chris Iannetta North Carolina C/1B 2004 189 0.344 0.453 0.587 0.466
Chris Iannetta North Carolina C/1B 2003 232 0.319 0.407 0.496 0.404
Chris Iannetta North Carolina C/1B 2002 165 0.333 0.431 0.539 0.457
Ryan Steinbach IUPU-Fort Wayne Inf 2004 167 0.359 0.432 0.413 0.463
Phillip Hawke LA-Lafayette 1B 2004 124 0.339 0.485 0.613 0.461
Phillip Hawke LA-Lafayette 1B 2003 203 0.305 0.387 0.468 0.353
Phillip Hawke LA-Lafayette 1B 2002 114 0.246 0.428 0.351 0.364
Barry Gunther Mississippi C 2004 142 0.352 0.428 0.486 0.460
Dustin Fremion IUPU-Fort Wayne OF 2004 146 0.356 0.428 0.411 0.460
Mike Ferris Miami, Ohio 1B 2004 177 0.379 0.528 0.831 0.454
Mike Ferris Miami, Ohio 1B 2003 175 0.360 0.484 0.549 0.336
Mike Ferris Kentucky 1B 2002 114 0.228 0.350 0.386 0.297
Hunter Pence Texas-Arlington OF 2004 165 0.418 0.462 0.618 0.452
Hunter Pence Texas-Arlington OF 2003 239 0.347 0.406 0.561 0.379
Lou Santangelo Clemson C 2004 203 0.305 0.381 0.591 0.450
Lou Santangelo Seton Hall C 2003 160 0.281 0.335 0.381 0.262
Lou Santangelo Seton Hall C 2002 131 0.214 0.286 0.305 0.226
Brett Anderson Co Charleston OF 2004 166 0.367 0.505 0.705 0.448
Brett Anderson Co Charleston OF 2003 189 0.286 0.369 0.407 0.278
Brett Anderson Co Charleston OF 2002 177 0.333 0.450 0.548 0.380
Kurt Suzuki Cal St Full. C 2004 189 0.439 0.537 0.709 0.445
Kurt Suzuki Cal St Full. C 2003 143 0.350 0.441 0.462 0.333
Preliminary Batter's Box Draft Coverage:
* College Pitchers - April 28th
* A review of the 2 Ricciardi Drafts - May 26th
* Mock Draft - June 2nd
* Batter's Box Draft Day Coverage - June 7th
