Here's the Milwaukee Brewers preview for 2004.
I am grateful for many things. I have my health. I am not out of work. I am not bitter, alone, and lonely. And, most of all, I am not a Milwaukee Brewers fan.
In this offseason, the Brewers' ownership basically stopped pretending to try to win, and have seemingly embarked on the strategy of extracting as much cash as possible from as many people as possible by as many means as possible. Andrew Zimbalist, in an excellent article that appeared in the New York Times last December, lays out the numbers for all to see:
In addition, according to an Associated Press report in November, the Metropolitan Milwaukee Chamber of Commerce has guaranteed millions of dollars' worth of season ticket sales.
If you do the math, you will notice that the Brewers have successfully managed to get the taxpayers of Wisconsin and the other major league teams to build them a state-of-the-art stadium for free. They haven't quite managed to achieve the goal of getting the rest of baseball to fund all of the team's expenses, too, but they're getting there. In return, the Brewers have given the taxpayers and baseball fans of Wisconsin nothing. Nada. Zip. Bupkis. The Brewers haven't had a winning season since 1992, and have lost at least 88 games in each of the six seasons they have been in the National League.
Let's be plain about this: the current situation in Milwaukee stinks, and it's not like Daddy Bud is going to rectify the situation any time soon. Until every major league team is run by teams actually intending to compete, baseball's competitive imbalance - to the extent there is one - is going to increase, as the poorer teams will essentially serve as AAAA farm clubs for the richer teams. And, until then, millions of dollars will be diverted from the pockets of fans and interested owners to the greedy, desiccated claws of covetous, grasping, old and not-so-old men.
What's saddest of all about the whole sorry saga is that this isn't the first time Milwaukee baseball fans have been hosed by major league baseball. A generation ago, Lou Perini carpetbagged his Milwaukee Braves out of town, despite healthy attendance figures and a history of winning. What, exactly, have the people of Wisconsin done to offend the baseball gods?
Update: the Brewers are apparently now for sale. ("Available: one major league baseball team, lightly used.") Anybody want to organize a whip-round to raise the available cash?
The 2003 Season
The 2003 Brewers did nothing to attract fans to their new home. They managed only one winning month all year, going 16-12 in August, and even that was a fluke, as they allowed more runs (133) than they scored (128). In September, the month that usually provides optimism for the future, the Brew Crew went 8-18. The only people who really cared much about the Brewers were Rotisserie fanatics: despite finishing 14th in the league in runs scored, the Brewers were third in the league in home runs, and third in stolen bases.
General Manager
Criticizing GM Doug Melvin's performance would be unfair - it's like forcing somebody to step into a boxing ring against Lennox Lewis with one hand tied behind his back. Even the best in the world would get clobbered. I'm not sure they're using their budget as wisely as they could, but rich teams make mistakes too, and can afford to spend their way out of their problems.
For assistant GM Gord Ash, this must all seem all too familiar, after years of working with Interbrew's meagre budgets in Toronto. Compared to Milwaukee, Toronto now must seem like a spendthrift's paradise.
Manager
You can't win a war without weapons, and you can't make chicken salad out of chicken sh... anyway, you get the idea. Even the best of managers can't win a division title without championship-quality players, so Ned Yost can't be blamed for not bringing home the bacon in 2003. Fortunately for Yost, Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin recognizes this, and has extended Yost's contract through 2005. Hopefully, someday, Yost will be able to put this managerial experience to work when given a real team to manage.
Catcher
In 2003, two venerable retreads shared the position: Eddie Perez and Keith Osik. The two combined for a .262 batting average with 15 home runs, which is better than a boot upside the head, not to mention Mike Matheny. Perez, who got the majority of at-bats, went back to Atlanta in the offseason, and Osik wasn't offered arbitration. To replace them, the Brewers acquired Chad Moeller in the Arizona mega-deal, and signed Gary Bennett to a one-year, $600,000 deal.
Moeller put up numbers pretty similar to Perez's, batting .268 with seven home runs, in slightly less playing time. He doesn't totally suck, but he's not exactly All-Star caliber.
Bennett compiled a .306 slugging percentage and a .296 on-base percentage for the San Diego Padres in '03. Needless to say, this isn't exactly an upgrade. Why waste good money on Bennett, when a dozen good-field no-hit catchers will be begging for jobs in April? The answer, obviously, is insecurity: the Brewers are afraid that many major leaguers would prefer unemployment to playing for Milwaukee.
If one of Moeller or Bennett doesn't work out, Mark Johnson, who was signed to a minor-league deal, will get a shot. Johnson, a long-time member of the League Of Happy Backup Catchers, is similar to Bennett, but bats left.
First Base
Richie Sexson's replacement at first is likely to be Lyle Overbay. The 27-year-old Overbay has hit a bunch of doubles in his various stops in the Arizona organization, and knows how to take a walk. However, his home run totals in the last three years have been 13, 19, and 8. Sexson's have been 45, 29, and 45. Jesus weeps.
Second Base
Junior Spivey, another Arizona acquisition, will likely take over second base. Junior, who surprised the world in 2002 by batting .301 with 65 walks and 16 home runs for the D-Backs, turned back into a pumpkin in 2003, compiling a .326 OBP and .433 SLG. Last year's figures are more in line with his career numbers than his 2002 explosion was; they are all you can realistically expect. ESPN reports that he "reacted with dismay" when he learned that he had been sent to Cheese Country, and you can't blame him, really. He shouldn't put down stakes in Milwaukee, as his $2.3 million salary is probably too rich for the Brewers' blood.
If Spivey is re-directed, Keith Ginter is the fallback position. Ginter finally got a chance to play last year, and wasn't terrible, hitting 14 home runs with a respectable .352 on-base percentage. He may have been hitting a little over his head, though, and his range factor numbers indicate that he is below average defensively. He's cheaper than Spivey, which may be a factor.
Shortstop
Here, the Brewers have nowhere to go but up, as Royce Clayton had a truly awful 2003. (How many shortstops manage to ground into 25 double plays?) When the Brewers realized that Bill Hall could hit better, could field better, and was considerably cheaper, Clayton was punted off the roster with great force. Hall, despite being shorter than the average bear, has some power, and has an above-average range factor at short. If Hall stumbles, Craig Counsell, who has been through all of this before, will take over. Counsell can still play short, but his hitting fell off last year, and the end may be near.
Third Base
Not everyone sees a trip to Milwaukee as being equivalent to a sojourn in purgatory. Last year, Wes Helms finally got a full shot with the Brewers, after spending his formative years trapped in the Atlanta organization, and responded by hitting 23 home runs. Helms, who was relentlessly average in all aspects of his game, was understandably happy to re-up with the Brewers, signing for two years and $4.5 million. While he's not likely to earn millions in endorsements or get his name on a candy bar, he's not part of the problem.
Left Field
Geoff Jenkins is that rarest of creatures, a career Brewer. Jenkins, who was a first-round pick in 1995 and has been with the club since 1998, set personal highs last year with 28 home runs and 95 RBI's. For him, the question is always whether he'll remain healthy enough to contribute: his career high in games played is 135, and he missed all of 2000 and most of 2002 with injuries. His salary is starting to creep into the unacceptable zone, so he may fall victim to the Brewers' desperate drive to economize, but his injury history means that contending teams will be reluctant to take him on. Jon Nunnally, a spring-training invitee who last played in the majors in 2000, will be hoping Jenkins hurts himself again.
Center Field
Scott Podsednik was the surprise story of 2003 for the Brewers. After spending nine years in the minors, Podsednik was handed the center field job in 2003, and literally ran with it. He stole 43 bases, reached base over 37% of the time, played an above-average centre field, and scored an even 100 runs. I don't know whether he can do it again - his minor-league numbers were never this good, and he was at his peak age of 27 last year - but at least he has done it once, which puts him ahead of most of his teammates.
Right Field
Ben Grieve will be patrolling right field for the Brewers in 2004, having signed a one-year, $700,000 deal with the Brew Crew. Grieve should be in his prime right now, but his batting average has declined each of the last four years, going from .279 to .264 to .251 to .230. Even worse, his power has disappeared, as he hit only four home runs in 165 at-bats last year. His defense in right field is legendarily awful. His backup is likely to be Brady Clark, a minor-league retread with good speed who put up replacement-level numbers in 315 at-bats.
Starting Rotation
The Brewers' main man is Ben Sheets. In 2003, Sheets made a conscious decision to throw more strikes: in roughly the same number of innings, he walked 27 fewer batters and gave up eight more home runs. The result was roughly the same: league-average performance, and a high number of innings pitched. He only turned 25 last summer, so you have to be worried about two consecutive seasons of 220 innings pitched.
The Brewers had two other starters who were counted on to answer the bell every time out in 2003: Matt Kinney and Wayne Franklin. While they posted identical 10-13 records, Kinney is the better of the two: he walked 80 while striking out 152 in 190 2/3 innings, which is respectable. His 5.19 ERA wasn't exactly good, though, and 2003 was the first year he'd pitched that much at the major league level. Franklin was a workhorse, starting every fifth day and even relieving twice, but giving up 36 home runs with a poor strikeout/walk ratio.
The #4 starter is likely to be Doug Davis. Davis, a lefthander without even a semblance of a fastball, was released by Texas and Toronto last season, teams not exactly overburdened with pitching. In Milwaukee, Davis seemed to find his groove, as he started eight times and sported a spiffy 2.58 ERA. Eight home runs in 52.1 innings suggests, though, that Davis might not be able to fool all of the people all of the time.
Glendon Rusch's forced departure leaves one starting slot wide open, with Chris Capuano, Wes Obermueller, and Dave Burba the most likely candidates. Capuano, yet another pickup from the Sexson trade, compiled solid numbers while pitching for Arizona's Tucson farm team, with a 3.34 ERA in 23 starts. He didn't embarrass himself when called up, as his major-league ERA was 4.64. Obermueller was unterwhelming in 11 starts with Milwaukee, collecting a 5.11 ERA and not striking out very many batters. Burba, who has been pitching in the majors since George Bush I was president, shuffled between AAA and the show last year, and pitched OK as a spot starter and long reliever. He'll be the fallback if the kids don't work out.
Bullpen
Last year, the Brewers decided to sprinkle magic pixie closer dust on the right arm of Danny Kolb. The 28-year-old Kolb, a refugee from the Texas system, pitched well enough in class-AAA ball to be called up in mid-season. He collected 21 saves for the Brewers, and was easily the club's best reliever after Curtis Leskanic was sent to Kansas City to bolster their ersatz pennant drive. Behind Kolb is the usual collection of suspects: Mike Crudale, Leo Estrella, and Luis Vizcaino had seasons ranging from awful to OK but uninteresting. The only Brewer penmate of interest is Brooks Kieschnick, who was the first player to serve as both pitcher and hitter since, oh, Clint Hartung or somebody. Kieschnick wasn't a particularly good pitcher, but he wasn't the worst on the team, and it's fun to see somebody both pitch and hit at the major league level, don't you think?
On The Farm
Rickie Weeks, a second baseman and the club's first-round pick in 2003, is the player with the best upside. In low-A Beloit, Weeks hit .349 and reached base nearly half the time, which prompted the Brewers to give him a look in September. If he keeps this up, he'll be in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park as soon as he becomes arbitration-eligible in 2008.
Another prospect with a good chance to succeed is someone you've heard of already: His Royal Highness, Prince Fielder. In Beloit, Cecil's son batted .313, pounded 27 home runs, drove in 112 runs, drew 71 walks, was hit by 15 pitches, and was intentionally walked 16 times. Whee! It's too early to tell, but that's a lot of power.
At class AA Huntsville, third baseman Corey Hart hit .302, with 40 doubles and 25 stolen bases. He committed 32 errors and doesn't walk much, so he has a ways to go yet before he can be useful.
J.J. Hardy hits for more power than most shortstops, and can take a walk: his .368 on-base percentage and 38 extra-base hits for Huntsville suggest that he will be able to contribute to the big club in a variety of ways. Peter Gammons thinks he'll be ready to go this year.
Catcher Kade Johnson was promoted to the 40-man roster after laying waste to California League pitching last year, hitting .321 and leading the Brewers' High Desert farm team in slugging. However, High Desert numbers often need to have the air let out of them, and Johnson hit only .192 in 213 at-bats in Huntsville. He'll need to take a step forward if he wants to save the Brewers from the Gary Bennetts of the world.
Dave Krynzel is a center fielder with good speed and good plate discipline (43 stolen bases and 60 walks last year). He doesn't have much power, though, and a .267 average at AA isn't anything to write home about. He's still young enough to take a couple of steps forward and become a quality leadoff hitter.
As for pitchers: the Brewers' winningest starter at class-AAA Indianapolis was Pasqual Coco, who was last heard of when he allegedly stole a teammate's wallet in the Jays' spring-training clubhouse, apparently in a planned attempt to get out of the organization. (The moral is: be careful of what you wish for, as you might get it.) Coco didn't pitch any better in his new home than he did in his old one, compiling a 4.80 ERA while hitting 13 batters and throwing 11 wild pitches. He didn't look like a prospect last year, and he doesn't this year. A total of 21 other pitchers started at least one game for the Indianapolis farm club; the best of these are already with the Brewers.
The Brewers' best pitching prospect is probably Dennis Sarfate, who went 11-2 in low-A Beloit, striking out a man an inning. Tim Bausher pitched out of the bullpen in Beloit, and struck out 39 in 27 innings. I would guess that he throws a fastball that is heard but not seen. At High Desert, Chris Saenz led the team with an ERA of 5.20, which illustrates how hard it is to pitch at altitude. Saenz fanned 136 batters and walked only 56 in 128 innings, so you might want to keep an eye on him.
The Brewers' best pitching prospects at the AA level don't look as good. Mike Adams was Huntsville's principal closer last year; normally, minor-league closers don't amount to much, but somebody who strikes out 83 batters in 74 1/3 innings is worth keeping a casual eye on, at least. Ben Hendrickson, their best starter at AA, doesn't look particularly impressive: only 56 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings, with a 3.45 ERA. Maybe, in the immortal words of Joe Schultz, he knows how to zitz them.
Of all the players listed here, only three (Weeks, Fielder, and Sarfate) have a significant chance of becoming impact players in the majors, and none of these three are above class-A ball yet. Compare that with the Toronto organization, which has at least five of these guys at AA or higher, and more on the way. There, Jays fans: now don't you feel a whole lot better?
In Conclusion
Look, people, it's not rocket science: to win more major league baseball games than everybody else, you need a team with players that are better than everybody else's players. In short, you need stars, or at least players with star talent. Look at Toronto, for instance: while the Jays' recent (relative) success has been partly the result of clever management and talent reorganization, the Jays have three players who are among the very best in the league (Delgado, Wells, and Halladay, for those of you who didn't do their homework). Having sort-of-good players won't cut it: the other teams all have sort-of-good players too, plus some players who are better than sort-of-good.
This is why, if I were a Milwaukee fan, I'd be tempted right now to jump into Lake Michigan and not come out: the Brewers don't have any star players. They're not likely to get any star players any time soon. Even if they did, the star players would eventually demand more money than the Brewers' owners are willing to pay, so they would become someone else's star players. The Brewers are this generation's St. Louis Browns: undercapitalized, underperforming, and underloved. They're not likely to win anything in the near future or the distant future, even in the NL Central, which isn't exactly a powerhouse. But that's all you can expect when success is measured by the return on minimized investment, not by the quality of the team being put on the field.
Meanwhile, somewhere far away, Harvey Kuenn spins in his grave.
| 68 wins, 94 losses | Runs scored: 714, 11th in the NL |
| 6th place, dead last, NL Central | Runs Allowed: 873, 14th in the NL |
| Pythagorean W-L: 66-96 |
| Players Acquired | Players Lost |
| Travis Phelps | Glendon Rusch |
| Mark Johnson | Royce Clayton |
| Jon Nunnally | Eddie Perez |
| Victor Santos | Jayson Durocher |
| Ben Grieve | John VanderWal |
| Gary Bennett | Keith Osik |
| Adrian Hernandez | Todd Ritchie |
| Craig Counsell | Richie Sexson |
| Junior Spivey | Shane Nance |
| Lyle Overbay | Gary Varner |
| Chad Moeller | Luis Martinez |
| Chris Capuano | |
| Jorge De La Rosa |
I am grateful for many things. I have my health. I am not out of work. I am not bitter, alone, and lonely. And, most of all, I am not a Milwaukee Brewers fan.
In this offseason, the Brewers' ownership basically stopped pretending to try to win, and have seemingly embarked on the strategy of extracting as much cash as possible from as many people as possible by as many means as possible. Andrew Zimbalist, in an excellent article that appeared in the New York Times last December, lays out the numbers for all to see:
- Miller Park, the Brewers' new home, cost $425 million, of which the Brewers contributed only $90 million.
- Of that $90 million, $41.1 million was obtained from a naming rights deal with the Miller brewery.
- The rest was borrowed. (The Associated Press reported that $14 million of the stadium debt was a low-interest loan from the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce.)
- The Brewers are entitled to receive all revenues from the new park, even from non-baseball events.
- Taxpayers were originally expected to pay $3.85 million a year in maintenance costs, but the Brewers assumed those expenses in September, 2002, in return for having $36 million of their stadium debt cancelled.
(Zimbalist wonders whether this will lead to the stadium skimping on maintenance in order to save money.) - The Brewers are expected to receive more revenue-sharing money in 2003
than any other team: they expect to be paid an estimated $18 million, up from $9.1 million in 2002 and $1.5 million in 2001. - The Brewers have announced that their payroll for 2004 is to be reduced
to $30 million, down from $40.6 million in 2003 and $52.7 million in 2002.
In addition, according to an Associated Press report in November, the Metropolitan Milwaukee Chamber of Commerce has guaranteed millions of dollars' worth of season ticket sales.
If you do the math, you will notice that the Brewers have successfully managed to get the taxpayers of Wisconsin and the other major league teams to build them a state-of-the-art stadium for free. They haven't quite managed to achieve the goal of getting the rest of baseball to fund all of the team's expenses, too, but they're getting there. In return, the Brewers have given the taxpayers and baseball fans of Wisconsin nothing. Nada. Zip. Bupkis. The Brewers haven't had a winning season since 1992, and have lost at least 88 games in each of the six seasons they have been in the National League.
Let's be plain about this: the current situation in Milwaukee stinks, and it's not like Daddy Bud is going to rectify the situation any time soon. Until every major league team is run by teams actually intending to compete, baseball's competitive imbalance - to the extent there is one - is going to increase, as the poorer teams will essentially serve as AAAA farm clubs for the richer teams. And, until then, millions of dollars will be diverted from the pockets of fans and interested owners to the greedy, desiccated claws of covetous, grasping, old and not-so-old men.
What's saddest of all about the whole sorry saga is that this isn't the first time Milwaukee baseball fans have been hosed by major league baseball. A generation ago, Lou Perini carpetbagged his Milwaukee Braves out of town, despite healthy attendance figures and a history of winning. What, exactly, have the people of Wisconsin done to offend the baseball gods?
Update: the Brewers are apparently now for sale. ("Available: one major league baseball team, lightly used.") Anybody want to organize a whip-round to raise the available cash?
The 2003 Season
The 2003 Brewers did nothing to attract fans to their new home. They managed only one winning month all year, going 16-12 in August, and even that was a fluke, as they allowed more runs (133) than they scored (128). In September, the month that usually provides optimism for the future, the Brew Crew went 8-18. The only people who really cared much about the Brewers were Rotisserie fanatics: despite finishing 14th in the league in runs scored, the Brewers were third in the league in home runs, and third in stolen bases.
General Manager
Criticizing GM Doug Melvin's performance would be unfair - it's like forcing somebody to step into a boxing ring against Lennox Lewis with one hand tied behind his back. Even the best in the world would get clobbered. I'm not sure they're using their budget as wisely as they could, but rich teams make mistakes too, and can afford to spend their way out of their problems.
For assistant GM Gord Ash, this must all seem all too familiar, after years of working with Interbrew's meagre budgets in Toronto. Compared to Milwaukee, Toronto now must seem like a spendthrift's paradise.
Manager
You can't win a war without weapons, and you can't make chicken salad out of chicken sh... anyway, you get the idea. Even the best of managers can't win a division title without championship-quality players, so Ned Yost can't be blamed for not bringing home the bacon in 2003. Fortunately for Yost, Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin recognizes this, and has extended Yost's contract through 2005. Hopefully, someday, Yost will be able to put this managerial experience to work when given a real team to manage.
Catcher
In 2003, two venerable retreads shared the position: Eddie Perez and Keith Osik. The two combined for a .262 batting average with 15 home runs, which is better than a boot upside the head, not to mention Mike Matheny. Perez, who got the majority of at-bats, went back to Atlanta in the offseason, and Osik wasn't offered arbitration. To replace them, the Brewers acquired Chad Moeller in the Arizona mega-deal, and signed Gary Bennett to a one-year, $600,000 deal.
Moeller put up numbers pretty similar to Perez's, batting .268 with seven home runs, in slightly less playing time. He doesn't totally suck, but he's not exactly All-Star caliber.
Bennett compiled a .306 slugging percentage and a .296 on-base percentage for the San Diego Padres in '03. Needless to say, this isn't exactly an upgrade. Why waste good money on Bennett, when a dozen good-field no-hit catchers will be begging for jobs in April? The answer, obviously, is insecurity: the Brewers are afraid that many major leaguers would prefer unemployment to playing for Milwaukee.
If one of Moeller or Bennett doesn't work out, Mark Johnson, who was signed to a minor-league deal, will get a shot. Johnson, a long-time member of the League Of Happy Backup Catchers, is similar to Bennett, but bats left.
First Base
Richie Sexson's replacement at first is likely to be Lyle Overbay. The 27-year-old Overbay has hit a bunch of doubles in his various stops in the Arizona organization, and knows how to take a walk. However, his home run totals in the last three years have been 13, 19, and 8. Sexson's have been 45, 29, and 45. Jesus weeps.
Second Base
Junior Spivey, another Arizona acquisition, will likely take over second base. Junior, who surprised the world in 2002 by batting .301 with 65 walks and 16 home runs for the D-Backs, turned back into a pumpkin in 2003, compiling a .326 OBP and .433 SLG. Last year's figures are more in line with his career numbers than his 2002 explosion was; they are all you can realistically expect. ESPN reports that he "reacted with dismay" when he learned that he had been sent to Cheese Country, and you can't blame him, really. He shouldn't put down stakes in Milwaukee, as his $2.3 million salary is probably too rich for the Brewers' blood.
If Spivey is re-directed, Keith Ginter is the fallback position. Ginter finally got a chance to play last year, and wasn't terrible, hitting 14 home runs with a respectable .352 on-base percentage. He may have been hitting a little over his head, though, and his range factor numbers indicate that he is below average defensively. He's cheaper than Spivey, which may be a factor.
Shortstop
Here, the Brewers have nowhere to go but up, as Royce Clayton had a truly awful 2003. (How many shortstops manage to ground into 25 double plays?) When the Brewers realized that Bill Hall could hit better, could field better, and was considerably cheaper, Clayton was punted off the roster with great force. Hall, despite being shorter than the average bear, has some power, and has an above-average range factor at short. If Hall stumbles, Craig Counsell, who has been through all of this before, will take over. Counsell can still play short, but his hitting fell off last year, and the end may be near.
Third Base
Not everyone sees a trip to Milwaukee as being equivalent to a sojourn in purgatory. Last year, Wes Helms finally got a full shot with the Brewers, after spending his formative years trapped in the Atlanta organization, and responded by hitting 23 home runs. Helms, who was relentlessly average in all aspects of his game, was understandably happy to re-up with the Brewers, signing for two years and $4.5 million. While he's not likely to earn millions in endorsements or get his name on a candy bar, he's not part of the problem.
Left Field
Geoff Jenkins is that rarest of creatures, a career Brewer. Jenkins, who was a first-round pick in 1995 and has been with the club since 1998, set personal highs last year with 28 home runs and 95 RBI's. For him, the question is always whether he'll remain healthy enough to contribute: his career high in games played is 135, and he missed all of 2000 and most of 2002 with injuries. His salary is starting to creep into the unacceptable zone, so he may fall victim to the Brewers' desperate drive to economize, but his injury history means that contending teams will be reluctant to take him on. Jon Nunnally, a spring-training invitee who last played in the majors in 2000, will be hoping Jenkins hurts himself again.
Center Field
Scott Podsednik was the surprise story of 2003 for the Brewers. After spending nine years in the minors, Podsednik was handed the center field job in 2003, and literally ran with it. He stole 43 bases, reached base over 37% of the time, played an above-average centre field, and scored an even 100 runs. I don't know whether he can do it again - his minor-league numbers were never this good, and he was at his peak age of 27 last year - but at least he has done it once, which puts him ahead of most of his teammates.
Right Field
Ben Grieve will be patrolling right field for the Brewers in 2004, having signed a one-year, $700,000 deal with the Brew Crew. Grieve should be in his prime right now, but his batting average has declined each of the last four years, going from .279 to .264 to .251 to .230. Even worse, his power has disappeared, as he hit only four home runs in 165 at-bats last year. His defense in right field is legendarily awful. His backup is likely to be Brady Clark, a minor-league retread with good speed who put up replacement-level numbers in 315 at-bats.
Starting Rotation
The Brewers' main man is Ben Sheets. In 2003, Sheets made a conscious decision to throw more strikes: in roughly the same number of innings, he walked 27 fewer batters and gave up eight more home runs. The result was roughly the same: league-average performance, and a high number of innings pitched. He only turned 25 last summer, so you have to be worried about two consecutive seasons of 220 innings pitched.
The Brewers had two other starters who were counted on to answer the bell every time out in 2003: Matt Kinney and Wayne Franklin. While they posted identical 10-13 records, Kinney is the better of the two: he walked 80 while striking out 152 in 190 2/3 innings, which is respectable. His 5.19 ERA wasn't exactly good, though, and 2003 was the first year he'd pitched that much at the major league level. Franklin was a workhorse, starting every fifth day and even relieving twice, but giving up 36 home runs with a poor strikeout/walk ratio.
The #4 starter is likely to be Doug Davis. Davis, a lefthander without even a semblance of a fastball, was released by Texas and Toronto last season, teams not exactly overburdened with pitching. In Milwaukee, Davis seemed to find his groove, as he started eight times and sported a spiffy 2.58 ERA. Eight home runs in 52.1 innings suggests, though, that Davis might not be able to fool all of the people all of the time.
Glendon Rusch's forced departure leaves one starting slot wide open, with Chris Capuano, Wes Obermueller, and Dave Burba the most likely candidates. Capuano, yet another pickup from the Sexson trade, compiled solid numbers while pitching for Arizona's Tucson farm team, with a 3.34 ERA in 23 starts. He didn't embarrass himself when called up, as his major-league ERA was 4.64. Obermueller was unterwhelming in 11 starts with Milwaukee, collecting a 5.11 ERA and not striking out very many batters. Burba, who has been pitching in the majors since George Bush I was president, shuffled between AAA and the show last year, and pitched OK as a spot starter and long reliever. He'll be the fallback if the kids don't work out.
Bullpen
Last year, the Brewers decided to sprinkle magic pixie closer dust on the right arm of Danny Kolb. The 28-year-old Kolb, a refugee from the Texas system, pitched well enough in class-AAA ball to be called up in mid-season. He collected 21 saves for the Brewers, and was easily the club's best reliever after Curtis Leskanic was sent to Kansas City to bolster their ersatz pennant drive. Behind Kolb is the usual collection of suspects: Mike Crudale, Leo Estrella, and Luis Vizcaino had seasons ranging from awful to OK but uninteresting. The only Brewer penmate of interest is Brooks Kieschnick, who was the first player to serve as both pitcher and hitter since, oh, Clint Hartung or somebody. Kieschnick wasn't a particularly good pitcher, but he wasn't the worst on the team, and it's fun to see somebody both pitch and hit at the major league level, don't you think?
On The Farm
Rickie Weeks, a second baseman and the club's first-round pick in 2003, is the player with the best upside. In low-A Beloit, Weeks hit .349 and reached base nearly half the time, which prompted the Brewers to give him a look in September. If he keeps this up, he'll be in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park as soon as he becomes arbitration-eligible in 2008.
Another prospect with a good chance to succeed is someone you've heard of already: His Royal Highness, Prince Fielder. In Beloit, Cecil's son batted .313, pounded 27 home runs, drove in 112 runs, drew 71 walks, was hit by 15 pitches, and was intentionally walked 16 times. Whee! It's too early to tell, but that's a lot of power.
At class AA Huntsville, third baseman Corey Hart hit .302, with 40 doubles and 25 stolen bases. He committed 32 errors and doesn't walk much, so he has a ways to go yet before he can be useful.
J.J. Hardy hits for more power than most shortstops, and can take a walk: his .368 on-base percentage and 38 extra-base hits for Huntsville suggest that he will be able to contribute to the big club in a variety of ways. Peter Gammons thinks he'll be ready to go this year.
Catcher Kade Johnson was promoted to the 40-man roster after laying waste to California League pitching last year, hitting .321 and leading the Brewers' High Desert farm team in slugging. However, High Desert numbers often need to have the air let out of them, and Johnson hit only .192 in 213 at-bats in Huntsville. He'll need to take a step forward if he wants to save the Brewers from the Gary Bennetts of the world.
Dave Krynzel is a center fielder with good speed and good plate discipline (43 stolen bases and 60 walks last year). He doesn't have much power, though, and a .267 average at AA isn't anything to write home about. He's still young enough to take a couple of steps forward and become a quality leadoff hitter.
As for pitchers: the Brewers' winningest starter at class-AAA Indianapolis was Pasqual Coco, who was last heard of when he allegedly stole a teammate's wallet in the Jays' spring-training clubhouse, apparently in a planned attempt to get out of the organization. (The moral is: be careful of what you wish for, as you might get it.) Coco didn't pitch any better in his new home than he did in his old one, compiling a 4.80 ERA while hitting 13 batters and throwing 11 wild pitches. He didn't look like a prospect last year, and he doesn't this year. A total of 21 other pitchers started at least one game for the Indianapolis farm club; the best of these are already with the Brewers.
The Brewers' best pitching prospect is probably Dennis Sarfate, who went 11-2 in low-A Beloit, striking out a man an inning. Tim Bausher pitched out of the bullpen in Beloit, and struck out 39 in 27 innings. I would guess that he throws a fastball that is heard but not seen. At High Desert, Chris Saenz led the team with an ERA of 5.20, which illustrates how hard it is to pitch at altitude. Saenz fanned 136 batters and walked only 56 in 128 innings, so you might want to keep an eye on him.
The Brewers' best pitching prospects at the AA level don't look as good. Mike Adams was Huntsville's principal closer last year; normally, minor-league closers don't amount to much, but somebody who strikes out 83 batters in 74 1/3 innings is worth keeping a casual eye on, at least. Ben Hendrickson, their best starter at AA, doesn't look particularly impressive: only 56 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings, with a 3.45 ERA. Maybe, in the immortal words of Joe Schultz, he knows how to zitz them.
Of all the players listed here, only three (Weeks, Fielder, and Sarfate) have a significant chance of becoming impact players in the majors, and none of these three are above class-A ball yet. Compare that with the Toronto organization, which has at least five of these guys at AA or higher, and more on the way. There, Jays fans: now don't you feel a whole lot better?
In Conclusion
Look, people, it's not rocket science: to win more major league baseball games than everybody else, you need a team with players that are better than everybody else's players. In short, you need stars, or at least players with star talent. Look at Toronto, for instance: while the Jays' recent (relative) success has been partly the result of clever management and talent reorganization, the Jays have three players who are among the very best in the league (Delgado, Wells, and Halladay, for those of you who didn't do their homework). Having sort-of-good players won't cut it: the other teams all have sort-of-good players too, plus some players who are better than sort-of-good.
This is why, if I were a Milwaukee fan, I'd be tempted right now to jump into Lake Michigan and not come out: the Brewers don't have any star players. They're not likely to get any star players any time soon. Even if they did, the star players would eventually demand more money than the Brewers' owners are willing to pay, so they would become someone else's star players. The Brewers are this generation's St. Louis Browns: undercapitalized, underperforming, and underloved. They're not likely to win anything in the near future or the distant future, even in the NL Central, which isn't exactly a powerhouse. But that's all you can expect when success is measured by the return on minimized investment, not by the quality of the team being put on the field.
Meanwhile, somewhere far away, Harvey Kuenn spins in his grave.
