Those complaining about the Lilly signing are presented with the Ponson signing to remind them what would have been had we not hired JP.

http://www.cbc.ca/pcgi-bin/templates/sportsView.cgi?/news/2004/01/15/Sports/borowski040115
Joe Borowski, 2 and $4.3. Was arbitration-eligible. COMN for story.

Ponson, hmm? Baltimore has been a spender, and fancies itself an AL East competitor. Will they be? I don't think so, at least not this year.

As for Sir Sidney at 7.5 for 3 years, this is most like the Escobar signing. Ponson has been a modestly above average pitcher the last 2 years,and there is no reason to believe that he won't be that on average for the next 3 as he is young. As far as I am concerned, he is Escobar without the upside, but without as much risk. I don't consider this to be a monumental blunder by Baltimore.

I am however much, much happier with El Artista with his talent and at his price.

Escobar without the upside but without as much risk is El Artista. So if you compare the money spent on Ponson and Batista, then one would have to consider Baltimore's move a blunder. I suppose that Baltimore sees more upside than everyone else here or maybe they just like to overpay. Ponson is royalty after all.

Cristian, you could see it that way. I prefer to see it that JP's acquisition of Batista was very astute.

I think Ponson's deal makes Escobar for 1.25 million less per year look pretty reasonable, especially with Ponson's shoulder issues. But like Mike said, I'm much, much happier with Batista's deal.

A Mr.Show reference? This is the greatest site on the internet.

Re: The Dodgers' mortal embarassment link to the LA. Times columnist-- However miserable the Dogers may or may not be, there's certainly no doubt about T.J. Simers' mortal state. What an unpleasant affect! There's a guy who does this kind of stand-up in a column for Sports Illustrated who about as unexpected as a rim-shot.

Wow Lucas, helluva job imagineering that headline. Tofutti Break for you today.

The Ponson signing is dumb. He has been unreliable until this season and while he may have Escobar-type potential he isn't without alot of risk. He has David Wells' body-type! He certainly didn't help San Fran any.

Simers' is lost. All the Dodgers need is one big bat and suddenly they are the cream of the NL West. Give Shawn Green a righthanded complement and there is no one close in that division. I just don't think that they have the ok to add payroll right now. But all it takes is one move before the allstar game. If any team looks like the Marlins or Angels its the Dodgers - no one thinks they have a chance, the line-up has been together for several years, most of the players are in their prime, everyone is coming off a bad year, they are adept defensively and in the running game perfectly suited and complemented by a deep pitching staff perfectly suited for a pitchers park.

I think the Detroit is the perfect place for Pudge. He'll enjoy it as much as JuanGone. Pudge may be great but he needs a reality check. No place better than motown to found one these days.

Divisions the Jays would win?

Discuss.

Obviously the AL Central. I think the NL Central is vastly overrated as well (38 games against the Brewers and Pirates? Even the Orioles would win 85ish games there). The Cards offense scares me though. And probably throw in the NL West too.

The Al Central, for sure. I'd also put my money on them in the NL Central and West. I think they're co-favorites everywhere, but the AL East. And by co-favorites, I guess what I mean is that it really wouldn't surprise me if they won.

Divisions the Jays would win?

The NL West and AL Central.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1074208210032&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064
Halladay files for arbitration. (My name for the AP story.)

Was this expected?

James

If Halladay didn't file he wouldn't have had the option I don't think. I assume they'll still work on a long term deal but there has to be an alternative if that doesn't work out.

From David at U.S.S. Mariner: If the Orioles or Blue Jays played in the AL West, one could make a compelling argument that they'd be the favorite to win the division right now.

Are the Orioles that good? Better than Anaheim? Better than Oakland? (They're probably better than Seattle now that Bavasi Jr.'s gotten his greasy paws over them.)

Still, I think the 2004 Jays would be favourites anywhere EXCEPT the AL East. I guess they're maybe on par with the best in the NL (Cubs, Phillies, and Astros).

The NL West sure got ugly quickly. Given the improvements of the Astros and Cubs, I think it's the weakest division in the league. Aaron's right to put some money on the Padres.

Whoever wins the Yankee v. Boston ALCS is going to be facing a drastically inferior team.

I just noticed Robert has the Cards running away with the Central.

I've read the comments, and I'm still not convinced (although if everyone's healthy they probably are about as good as Houston or the Cubs).

What does arb mean for HLH? 9 mil/year for 3 years? Or is that too low...

It won't go to arb, no chance. Either they will agree to a multi year contract together or they will agree to a one year contract. No chance in hell they are taking a 26 year old Cy Young award winner with 2 excellent seasons in a row to arb. I don't even wanna know how much he'd get.

Sorry, I should have been clearer. I wanted some idea of what his long-term contract is going to be. I'm guessing 27-30 mil over 3 years.

With all the free agent signings lately I haven't heard a sound about Halladay until now when he filed for arbitration. I hope they sign him before too long; I would say 8-10 million a year for 4 years sounds about right, back loaded of course. By the way, where is Delgado going to be this time next year?

No, Jurgen...Robert has a simulated, injury-free Cards team running away with the Central. On the real, frail, Cardinal team, there will be enough injuries to keep them from running anywhere.

http://economics.about.com
Oooh.. that mean old Mr. Griffin is trying to get us riled up:

As the Angels take another '04 cash-driven run at the Fall Classic, the Jays' docile fan base contents itself to wait until the latter two Moreno-mentioned years, 2006-07, or whenever GM J.P. Ricciardi says it's time for Toronto to field a contender.

Yawn. Does your jukebox have any other songs, Dick?

Mike

The Orioles aren't actually big spenders. That's the perception but not the reality. Their payroll for 2004 will be less than it was for 2003. $56 million is all. Isn't that lower than the Jays?

Source is the Baltimore Sun:
http://www.sunspot.net/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles16jan16,0,2499827.story?coll=bal-sports-baseball

The Orioles aren't actually big spenders. That's the perception but not the reality. Their payroll for 2004 will be less than it was for 2003. $56 million is all. Isn't that lower than the Jays?

Source is the Baltimore Sun:
http://www.sunspot.net/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles16jan16,0,2499827.story?coll=bal-sports-baseball

Still, I think the 2004 Jays would be favourites anywhere EXCEPT the AL East.

Again, speaking as a Jays follower-but-not-fan (except in the overall baseball sense), I think this is blue-rose-colored glasses hyperbole. And I don't doubt that TO fans who say this actually believe it.

But, well, it's kind of silly. I understand it -- I believed the Reds would dominate the National League when Ron Oester was the big star and that the Yankees were just around the corner from returning to dominance during the Alvaro Espinoza era.

And you know, if everything goes just exactly right, the Jays could win their current division in 2004 or go on to bigger things than that (see Marlins, Florida) without winning it.

But if you ask fans, yes, even the Jamesian saber-rattlers, of the Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Cubs, Cardinals, Giants, Angels, A's, Mariners, Twins, even the Royals -- and that's off the top of my head, I'm probably missing teams -- if the Jays would be favored in front of their hometown boys, they'd laugh.

Again, I'm not arguing the point that the Jays are good, and that they might indeed manage to win a division -- even the current one -- just that they wouldn't be "favored" by anyone outside of Toronto.

My personal policy is to ignore Richard Griffin, but this is just too incredibly stupid to ignore:

Other NL players, just past their prime or on the cusp of stardom, who moved to the other loop in the off-season include Fernando Vina, Benito Santiago, Pokey Reese, Kenny Lofton, Rich Aurilia, Paul Quantrill, Eric Young, Jose Cruz Jr., Tino Martinez and Brian Jordan.

Put all those guys on one team and they might beat the Tigers. Not that Rich has even come close to correctly identifying the best of the rest coming to the AL. I'll spot him 4 players and whip his group with Gary Sheffield, Javier Vazquez, Miguel Batista, Sidney Ponson, Mark Redman, and Mark Kotsay.

Don't forget Schilling.

Oops should have read the article first.

I think they'll try to get Halladay inked for 4 years, i.e. the rest of JP's current contract.

Yeah, what about guys coming to the NL? I hear Nick Johnson and Mike Cameron are pretty good.

Remember when last year's nomination of Pete Rose for the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame rustled a few feathers? Well, get ready for some more feather rustling, as Ted Giannoulas (aka the San Diego Chicken) seems to be garnering support for induction into St. Mary's this year. Unlike Petey, this circus-act stands a chance! Thanks to Joe O'Connor of the Post for the wonderful article.

A Chicago radio station just reported that Greg Maddux might be close to signing with an American League team. Any ideas who it might be? Cubs can't be too happy about that.

I'm just wondering about another point in Griffin's article about Anaheim signing all these Latin players, in part to increase the appeal of the team to the large Latin population of Southern Cal. He isn't the first to make this point but I'm thinking that since most Latins in SoCal are of Mexican origin will they care? Valenzuela was very popular in the early 80's but he was Mexican. I think there is a great rivalry between the different Latin American countries and a Mexican doesn't necessarily like a Dominican or Venezuelan just because they are Latin. I think it's analogous to thinking that Canadians don't differentiate between Canadian and American sporting heroes just because both countries speak English. Maybe Jabonoso can confirm or deny this?

If Maddux is coming to the AL then I'm guessing it must be Baltimore. They're the only ones with spending cash to spare as far as I can see.

I'm thinking that since most Latins in SoCal are of Mexican origin will they care? I think there is a great rivalry between the different Latin American countries and a Mexican doesn't necessarily like a Dominican or Venezuelan just because they are Latin.

The rivalry among Latin countries is exaggerated. I think many Mexicans won't care much about the newest Angels because Mexicans as a whole aren't as baseball crazy as Dominicans, Cubans, or Puerto Ricans. I don't think rivalry among Latin countries plays a part. Fernando-mania was a different case because it brought non-fans into the game. Many people flocking to Dodger Stadium were Valenzuela fans and not baseball fans. Every body wants to see their fellow countrymen do well. For example, I was cheering loudly for Mike Weir in the Masters although I don't follow golf and can't tell you the difference between a green jacket and ugly golf pants.

I would think that a large percentage of Mexican-American baseball fans start following the sport after coming to America. In this sense, these Americans of Mexican origin watch baseball, football, and basketball like everyone else. That is, they are Americans first and Mexicans second. If they are Americans first, then this becomes another reason why the rivalry between Latin countries becomes an unimportant factor.

It's easy to suggest that Moreno chose the players he did for marketing purposes but this ignores that the players he signed are great players regardless of origin.

That's part of my point that I left out. I think that as Mexican-Americans become fans of the Angels or Dodgers they really won't care where the players are from. Just as I'm a Blue Jay and Maple Leaf fan, the team is more important to me. I could care less about where the player is from, it's the performance that counts. On the other hand, in individual sports I tend to pay more attention to Canadian golfers, skiers etc.

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2515
COMN for an interesting comparison of the results of the PECOTA, ZiPs, Diamond Mind Baseball and 4 other projection methods against actual results for 2003. It's a Baseball Prospectus article, and the home team pulls it off in the ninth.

Kerry Wood signed his last contract as an indentured servant. 1 and $9.75 according to Rotoworld.

Also, the Dodgers threw an NRI to Jeremy Giambi.

San Diego signed Rey Ordonez to a minor league deal. I didn't think anyone would be stupid enough to give him a guaranteed contract.

Look at the Padres go!

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/7730377.htm
Detroit reportedly offers Pudge Rodriguez 4 and $40. COMN for story

He signed for minor league money? Ya know, if the Jays could have signed him for about 500,000 I think he would have been better than Gomez. A little more glove potential and a little more bat potential (though I know he's no great shakes at either...by any means)

He signed for minor league money? Ya know, if the Jays could have signed him for about 500,000 I think he would have been better than Gomez.

For major league veterans who sign minor league contracts, their salary if they make the big club is almost always above the league minimum. It wouldn't surprise me if Ordonez will make more than $500,000 if he's on the major league roster.

For example, Dave Berg signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays in 2002 but made $450,000 that year (back when the league minimum was still $200,000).

If Ordonez makes the team, he'd get $650K with a possible $125K more in performance bonuses. The key is that it isn't guaranteed. He's just insurance in case Khalil Greene isn't ready.

There are 3 reported AL teams interested in Maddux. Baltimore, Boston, and Anaheim. Then again it could all just be Scott Boras-speak.

With regard to MattO question about mexicans and latinos and marketing games in SoCal.
Well Mexicans in California and Arizona ( around 10 million ) are proud that Moreno ( born in Mexico ) could buy a major sport franchise.
Anything that helps easy the bad feelings in their relationship with the arrogant gringos will be welcome. Many mexicans cheer central american soccer players, it is easier than to cheer for, say a british.
The Padres, Dodgers and Dbacks have strong marketing directed specifically to mexicans both in the US as from the border cities ( Tijuana: five million ). Now Angels are into that picture.
For Guerrero it was important to have spanish speaking people around ( i was really surprised that he needed a translator ). Sioscia speaks spanish and is really liked by mexican fans.
Mexican around the US border like more Baseball than soccer. And most latinos in baseball like other latinos, there are certain special afinities ( a Mexican will like more a Cuban than any other ) and antipathies ( Dominicans and Puertoricans may feel the others are taking away something from them if one succeds over the other ) but in general everybody feels right when they are considered a group: Asian, Latinos, black americans, Canadians etc.

Has any one had a worse off season than Scott Boras? How many times has he been quoted saying that one of his clients was mulling over 2 to 3 offers only to see nothing happen. Millwood, Irod, Maddux, I give Boras a D so far this off season.

Detroit might save Boras' bacon with I-Rod. But it's not really his fault in that case; I-Rod should realize that most teams just don't allocate that kind of budget on catching, especially long term. He managed to sign a one year deal last year with a team that wanted his star presence and the only reason he has a 4 year offer now is because Detroit is desperate for good players and Dombrowski wants to save his job. It's likely that Maddux can get a two year deal given his age and most recent performance but the question will be for what amount...it looks like they're still asking a high ticket (i.e. $7 million or more) which most teams won't pay.

Harry Brecheen passed away this weekend. Brecheen was a fine starter on the great Cardinals' teams of the 40s. Musial, Slaughter, Terry Moore, Marty Marion, Brecheen and Mort Cooper were the core of these clubs. The Cardinals and Dodgers dominated the decade in the National League. Stan the Man and Marion are the remaining living stars of that great ballclub.

I never thought I'd say this, but the Jays really should've signed Ordonez, especially considering what he went to SD for. He's good glove/no bat, at least he compliments Woodward. Cruz is decent bat/poor glove, so really brings no skills to the club they don't already have. Also, anyone who watched Rey with the Mets knew his problem has complacency- he had a job he couldn't lose, so never felt the need to try and improve. Given good coaching, I think he could be OK. That's my only criticism of JP this offseason- that he didn't identify the club's need for a good field/no hit SS. The Jays could use Izturis, unlike his current owners, to start games with GB pitchers on the mound. The left-infield defense scares me a little, and I'm really hoping something better than what we have surfaces in spring training, or that Woodward manages to take a leap forward with the glove.

He's good glove/no bat, at least he compliments Woodward

Actually, he's OK glove/no bat. He's a better defender than Gomez, but that's not saying a lot.

That's my only criticism of JP this offseason- that he didn't identify the club's need for a good field/no hit SS.

It's not strictly fair, in my view, to say that they didn't identify the need for a SS with a good glove. From what I understand, the front office are all too aware of the need for a shortstop with a good glove... the problem, in my view, is that there was not one available guy this year who fit that description, and the trades they made filled an area of greater need (the pitching staff).

Has any one had a worse off season than Scott Boras? How many times has he been quoted saying that one of his clients was mulling over 2 to 3 offers only to see nothing happen. Millwood, Irod, Maddux, I give Boras a D so far this off season.

Spot on. Boras, though, is discovering what it is to get played. After years and years of scamming people, he is finding out - what a surprise - that people are very reluctant to deal with him. As soon as the market shifted, Boras's clients started getting hurt the most. When the prevailing wind is with you and you hold the cards, it works great to bluster and bluff your way to big pots. When suddenly you're on the other side, you find that people are all to eager to turn the screw on you.

It's the dog days of winter so I've looked back at my old Blue Jay guides which start in 1987 and thought I'd post draft info starting with the 1986 draft over the next little while. But here are the prominent Jays drafted prior to 1986 that were still in the organization as of 1987. At that time there was also a January draft which might have been for unsigned June draftees from the prior years. I'm not sure. Also a June secondary phase which I have no idea what it was for. Anyways here they are.

Player Year Phase Round
Jesse Barfield 1977 June-Reg 9
Lloyd Moseby 1978 June-Reg 1
Dave Stieb 1978 June-Reg 5
Mark Eichorn 1978 Jan-Reg 2
John Cerutti 1981 June-Reg 1
Mike Sharperson 1981 June-Sec 1
David Wells 1982 June-Reg 2
Jimmy Key 1982 June-Reg 3
Pat Borders 1982 June-Reg 6
Glehallen Hill 1983 June-Reg 9
Eric Yelding 1984 Jan-Reg 1
Greg Myers 1984 June-Reg 3
Jeff Musselman 1985 June-Reg 6
Todd Stottlemyre 1985 June-Sec 1
Mark Whiten 1986 Jan-Reg 18

Damn. Should have previewed!

I hear there are teams that won't even draft a Boras client because they refuse to work with him.

the problem, in my view, is that there was not one available guy this year who fit that description, and the trades they made filled an area of greater need (the pitching staff).

I'm thinking there's got to be a good glove minor leaguer floating around, but I don't know. I really hope we don't see a repeat of last year in the field, and the only way that happens is if the Jays have some darkhorse NRI shine with the glove in spring training, or if Woodward starts improves, or if some relative of Bordick's runs up a huge mob debt.

I think Ordonez could've helped the Jays- anyone who watched him "hit" with the Mets knew his problem was pitch selection. He tended to get into bad habits at the plate during his rare hot streaks that would lead him out of the streak. He'd start swinging for the fences at eye-level fastballs, when his successes came from keeping the ball on the ground. His fielding I think was a related problem- he started to get too flashy on routine plays, probably to make up for the concerns about his offense. With the right coaching, which it seems like Toronto has and the Mets at that time certainly didn't, Ordonez could be a useful player, especially near the minimum.

At any rate, there's got to be an Alex Cora out there somewhere. I don't think JP's the type to totally punt a position to defense (with a Charlie O'Brien type), but in this case, I think it would be helpful.

OT- Will Syracuse have the best OF in the minors this year? Hermanson, Rios, Gross. Hermanson might not be a good prospect anymore, but he raked AAA pitching last season...will be a fun year for 'Cusians...

The 1986 June draft. First ten rounds plus prominent later picks.

Round Number Player Position
1 26 Earl Sanders RHP
2 54 Steven Cummings RHP
3 81 Andy Dziadkowiec C
4 107 Francis (Xavier) Hernandez RHP
5 133 Patrick Hentgen RHP
6 159 Jerry Schunk SS
7 185 Chris Carpenter (not that one) RHP
8 211 James Long RHP
9 237 Richard DePastino RHP
10 263 Randy Knorr C
11 289 Willie Blair RHP
43 621 Doug Linton RHP

A pitching heavy draft. Cummings and Hernandez pitched briefly with the Jays. Hernandez I think was a rule 5 pick by the Astros and had a decent career in the early 90's. Blair also pitched for the Jays and was traded to Cleveland and pitched in the majors for a while. I don't know how to format this to make it look better.

Anybody watch SNL last night? The musical guest was 50 Cent's G-Unit, and Fifty performed wearing a Jays hat. It was odd. It was one of the those all-black hats with the big maple-leaf under the jay.

Word.

At any rate, there's got to be an Alex Cora out there somewhere.

Such as? Just saying "there's got to be" one out there doesn't make it so.

I certainly hope that Chris Woodward is not the shortstop of the future, but he's not that bad. I don't think that spending time effort and money on someone who fields better and hits worse than Woody would have been a good idea. I'm certainly glad that JP shored up the pitching staff, an area where the Jays were in need of real improvement.

I dont think that Woodward is the shortstop of the future but last year in spring training there was a lot of positive hype surround Woodward. In fact even Peter Gammons mentioned him as one of the most talked about players in the spring due to his low body fat and how great of shape he was in. In regards to the Blue Jays bullpen, I thought going into last year that a pen of Escobar, Politte, Tam,Creek and Lopez would have been solid so hopefully Lightenberg and Speier dont end up being Tam and Creek.

Please excuse my poor grammar in the last post.:)

I don't know how to format this to make it look better.

MatO, try the following formating:

[pre][big]
List goes here
[/pre][/big]

Using angular brackets instead of square ones. Check out Webmonkey for more HTML tips.

Such as? Just saying "there's got to be" one out there doesn't make it so.

Last time I checked, it wasn't my job to find it. I don't know how you evaluate minor league defense other than by scouting reports. The Jays found Huckaby to fill that role at catcher, and I'm suggesting a similar move for SS. SS X doesn't have to start 162 games, either- just the ones when the extreme GB pitchers are working.

Again, if you aren't playing Hinske at 3B, this isn't so much of an issue. Hopefully, Hinske's defense will improve (I think it will), but if it doesn't, you've got a GB-heavy staff pitching with an infield that's below average at 3/4 positions.

IMO, this is the only blemish on JP's otherwise strong offseason. This is a fun team with a strong future, and I can't wait for opening day.

It's been way too long since Rios' name has been mentioned around here, perhaps due to his minor "slump" the last few games (although Caguas managed to make it to the PR finals anyways). It looks like be broke out in fine fashion today, in the first game against Ponce.

you've got a GB-heavy staff pitching with an infield that's below average at 3/4 positions.

it's 1/2, not 3/4. Hudson and Delgado are both above average. Hudson is one of the best in the AL, and Delgado has never had a below league average range factor as a regular firstbaseman.

IMO, this is the only blemish on JP's otherwise strong offseason. This is a fun team with a strong future, and I can't wait for opening day.

My point was that you can't call this a "blemish" unless you know for a fact that there was a better option out there, and JP didn't go after it. Perhaps the fact that JP didn't find him is an indication that an inexpensive good-glove shortstop was nowhere to be found.

The Jays found Huckaby to fill that role at catcher, and I'm suggesting a similar move for SS.

Yeah, Huckaby worked out real well. Look, I love Ken Huckaby for his positive attitude after years of fruitless minor-league toil, but he was terrible as a Jay... a .240 singles hitter who couldn't catch the baseball. Huck's a better defender than he showed; but what he showed was horrific.

There are high probabilities that Rios goes to the Caribe series. Either with Caguas or as a Ponce reinforcement.
Does anybody has his whole year batting line? i guess he is above 660 ab already and certainly with quite impresive numbers.
I wonder if anybody ( like his trainer, his AAA coach...) is worried about his workload.

Rotoworld.com's Matthew Pouliot dropped us his top 100 prospects list today. 5 Jays (but no Bush) made the list, with 2 more to round out the next 50. Here's where the Jays prospects ranked:

10. Rios
25. McGowan
63. Gross
71. Arnold
75. Quiroz

120. Perkins
127. League

It's funny Jabonoso, I was just thinking the same thing over the weekend. Rios will be reporting to Dunedin in 5 weeks or so. The man needs a holiday. Somebody ought to be telling him so.

It is a good prospect list. Funny that Arnold shows up, regardless of BA putting him down. This guy MP seems to like projecting young guys, at the top are several very young prospects. And yes Bush should be there, but either he did not have him in a previous list and did not find him or he is too old for him to be a high ceiling prospect.

Bush doesn't make the top 150, but Youkilis makes the top 50?! Where's the logic? Most credible lists include an overview of the general philosophy for rating prospects. Pouliot's list lacks any such overt statement, and so the list is as arbitrary as they get, IMO.

But...he's the GREEK GOD OF WALKS!!!

http://www.bluejayway.ca/features/me/me011904.php
Anybody remember back on the Ligtenberg thread I posted that my next Blue Jay Way column would be about how the bullpen wasn't really that bad? Finally finished it. COMN if you're interested in the result.

I'm not spamming by pointing this out, am I?

Matthew, I agree in general, and it's not spam if it is on-topic and non-profit. I have a quibble. Relievers' ERAs should be somewhat lower than starters' because of the accounting for inherited runners. The Jays' bullpen last year was definitely below average, but as you say, it was not by any means the only problem.

Matt, you're always welcome to link your BJW stuff here.

I agree with your estimate that the 2003 bullpen might have cost the team a maximum of five wins -- the rotation was definitely a bigger problem. I share your optimism that both areas of the staff are considerably improved, as long as their arms remain sound.

Unfortunately, you're also right that some people will cry "the sky is falling" the first time the bullpen coughs up a lead. Recently, I mentioned that Carlos Tosca will look a lot smarter in 2004 because he has more reliable buttons to push, but the skipper will continue to get blamed way out of proportion when, inevitably, a reliever gets lit up.

I agree with your estimate that the 2003 bullpen might have cost the team a maximum of five wins

I hesitate to call it my estimate; the 'smart people' I mentioned in the column were Mike Moffatt and Leigh in the aforementioned Ligtenberg thread.

http://economics.about.com
I hesitate to call it my estimate; the 'smart people' I mentioned in the column were Mike Moffatt and Leigh in the aforementioned Ligtenberg thread.

It's not mine either. I stole it from Baseball Prospectus, who stole it from Steve Allen.

Thanks for lumping me in with Leigh and the other smart people. :)

Cheers,

Mike

http://www.foxsports.com/content/view?contentId=2062936
!!!

Seattle reliever Kazuhiro Sasaki will forfeit his contract and stay in Japan this season due to "personal reasons." COMN for story

!!!

And Eddie Guardado's fantasy value skyrockets!

Has anyone had a crazier offseason than M's fans?

The M's are one mismanaged team. But I tend to believe that this is an unanticipated blessing in disguise, as the M's already have an excellent bullpen, and can easily use $10 MM in budget to acquire a good OF. Say, Magglio Ordonez?

I'm not so sure it's unanticipated. I couldn't understand the Guardado signing at the time -- why spend all that money on duplicate "proven closers"? -- but now it makes sense. Accordingly, you have to figure the Mariners knew this was coming, and that Sasaki's decision did not come out of the blue for them. I imagine we'll learn more about this in days to come.

Betcha Scott Boras is breathing a sigh of relief right about now. I-Rod in Seattle would be a perfect fit.

Mathew,
Last year,everybody complained about Tosca pen usage pattern, and there is a stat to show for it: more appearences by bullpen, among last three in appearence lenght. There is a common feeling that this works against the pitchers ( warming up frequency, tiredness for this kind of routine, need time to find groove for some pitchers etc ) but my question would be: Is there a way to predict results if there were a hypothetical optimal mgr?
Something i am missing is that if Carlos has been a mgr for so long, he should have a feeling ( and even some sort of science )about when players are more effective. and wit so little major league experience he insist so much on match ups and other smarty numbers related strategies vs people strategies.

Is there a way to predict results if there were a hypothetical optimal mgr?

For that you'd have to have a hypothetical optimal strategy, and the consensus hasn't settled on one yet. In fact, there are big arguments about this. (Although I think we can agree that Tosca's probably isn't it.)

Before we fix our opinions of Tosca, though, let's see what he does with the '04 bullpen. If he still averages shorter relief appearances than the rest of the league, then it's just him. If his usage patterns come back to the pack, then it's his response to his personnel.

Bush doesn't make the top 150, but Youkilis makes the top 50?! Where's the logic? Most credible lists include an overview of the general philosophy for rating prospects. Pouliot's list lacks any such overt statement, and so the list is as arbitrary as they get, IMO.

Arbitrary sounds too kind. Anyone who doesn't put Bush in the top 150 prospects in baseball is simply ignorant.

Alan Schwarz has written ESPN.com's best hot-stove heater yet, proposing 10 rule changes for MLB's consideration.

In response Schwartz's Mid-inning Reliever issue, why don't they just prohibit them from warming up on the mound. Isn't that what the bullpen is for? This change would remove most of the deadtime without taking away any of the strategy. I would also get rid off of the two trips to the mound rule. Why not limit it one? Why do we allow coach's to stop and conference on the mound?

If I am a pitcher facing Bonds as suggested by Schwartz and I have to give him one strike, I would just put one in his ear instead. That coupled with the body armour suggestion and doing away with the auto warning seem to all encourage pitchers to pitch at Bonds not to him. All the great hitters have had to deal with IB, why should we change it now?

Wow - the list of changes is better than I would have guessed. My faves are the injured player on postseason roster loophole, and allowing draft pick trading (I mean, come on - a rule preventing teams from sacrificing their future? They are great at doing that on their own - hello, Texas Rangers!). Actually, other than those two, the list is kind of dumb. But a roster management rule from the 60's - that rule was made when free agency was still a pipe dream in Marvin Miller's head while he managed his steel union, or whatever he was doing then. Draft pick trading is one thing that makes the NFL Draft exciting. Let's use it!

That's a nice article by Schwarz. In the case of the body armour argument I like Rob Neyer's suggestion (I think) of moving the battersbox away from the plate a little further and enforcing the rules. That is, the batter must stay within the battersbox (not sure exactly for how long) while hitting, and if the batter is hit then he only gets first base if he is taking evasive action and is not in the strike zone. (Correct me if I'm wrong). Unfortunately, these days the batter can lean over the plate and will get 1st base no matter what they are doing. I remember Mike Cuddyer getting complete fooled by a Halladay curve ball and getting rapped on the arm as he leaned through the strike zone. If he hadn't been hit, it would have been a strike. As it was the umpire gave him first base. Blue Jays aren't innocent either. I can't remember if it was Dave Berg or Craig Grebeck who used to lean into a pitch with no intention of getting out of the way.

I like the idea of closing the postseason roster loopholes. The roster manipulation is within the law, but is hardly in the spirit of it. Similarly, I would like to see rule changes that stop Rule 5 draftees getting mysteriously injured and having to go on the DL. If Rule 5 draftees had to remain on the 25 man roster, injured or not, this would stop this chicanery dead.

I would just put one in his ear instead.

Wouldn't you assume this particular combination of rule changes would also lead to a greater enforcement of the automatic ejection rule for intentionally throwing at a hitter?

The idea of backing the batter's box off the plate gradually was discussed in the NHBA (Bill James).

If the ball was a strike and it hit Cuddyer, it's a strike. The umpire blew the call (of course he could merely have judged it a ball - as all umpires have their own strikezone).