Yay for Dustin. It really is nice to know there are quality young players, particularily pitchers, "Down on the Farm". Having a system as bereft as the Yankees or Red Sox would be boring, I think.

I agree, Donkit. It's fun to hear about new young talents, speculate on their arrival, and finally see them pitch a complete game or go 4-for-4.
Buying teams year in and year out sucks, doesn't it?

I've always been almost as much a fan of following sports, as I am of watching I think. Discovering this site and the great information on the farm teams has been a blessing. My love for baseball has gone through the roof since. Thanks , again, Coach and everyone else who has contributed :-)

Especially the resident Minor League experts with the terriffic monthly and year-end reports.

I'd like to add a little bit to the debate (I've seen this stated in many articles, but I've never seen it discussed here):

The current Blue Jays administration is so highly regarded, but many of our key pieces i.e Halladay, Delgado, Wells (and to a smaller extent Rios), are all remnants of the previous administration and none of them were drafted out of college (meaning the current admin probably wouldn't have selected them).

(If the above statement is not correct, my apologies, I am not as big a follower of the team as a lot of people who post here seem to be.)

I'm interested in what people think.

Maneesh, while I do think that you need to look at college and high school players, I do think that the Jays should draft college players FOR THE TIME BEING given their current situation. I defenitely do think it's harder to find "star" players in college, but I also think they are a safer bet. Once you have that solid core of 3 or 4 stars like the Jays have, it's probably more ideal to try and solidify your roster with solid players who can be regular major leaguers. I don't know what JP would do had he not had the solid core like he does (I assume he would probably still go for collegians), but it is important to realize that the Jays have had uncharacteristic success with High School players throughout the 90s (and into the 00's with McGowan and Rios) and that the results of drafting high school talent (or to a lesser extent even college talent) rarely turn into producing the solid crop of home-grown major-leaguers like the Jays have seen (This probably has a lot to do with Tim Wilken). I realize my argument seems passive aggressive in nature and that I have made a lot of generalizations and I'm still not sure if I'm making any sense, but I'll post this anyways...

Maneesh:
there are several facets about your assertion.
-Our previous baseball people, farm director and scouts were very good, and their success record is widely recognized. They also hold the record for more major leaguers from their drafts and best crop among first rounders. They did not pick up HS's only but clearly the higher ceiling comes from this group.
-Our current administration is more responsible with the economical side of the game, and drafting college guys is a direct response to replenish an almost bare system ( done ) and have players ready for the bigs in a 3 to 4 years span ( we are eagerly waiting for them to arrive, some are really close: Bush, Peterson...)

-Our previous baseball people, farm director and scouts were very good, and their success record is widely recognized.

If the quality of our scouting staff was so good, why were they let go (or why did they decide to leave)? I'm thinking especially of Tim Wilken. I'm a little concerned with losing the person responsible for drafting/signing Halladay, Wells, Rios, etc.

Any insights?

Teams like the Blue Jays and for example the Athletics cant afford to make mistakes in the draft hence the focus on college players to restock the system quickly. Some High School players might have more "star" potential but it also comes with a greater risk. College players have a track record to evaluate at a higher level of competition and the Blue Jays need to minimize the risk for cost reasons. The Blue Jays now have a deep system and I think once they feel they have a comfort level with the quality and depth of their farm system you will see them have the abilities to draft high school players again. Baseball America has a great interview with 4 General Managers and Billy Beane explains that they needed the depth first but now they can look to drafting high school players in the early rounds and even predicted that the Athletics were looking at that this year. Im sure JP and company can do the same either this year or next as our system looks to be better than ever.

While it's easy to look at Rios and say "duh," I don't think there was anyone other than the Blue Jays who saw him as a first-round pick. He just screamed "Budget Pick", and the results agreed with it: In his first three years as a pro, he didn't hit higher than .269, and his OBP topped out at .321. If he makes the team in 2003, it will be in his sixth year as a professional.

Even if you give the Jays scouts a lot of credit, I think it's hard to say they knew what they were getting with Rios. But who knows; maybe Miguel Negron will bust out with 30 homers this year and we'll all look stupid.

I look at it like this: nobody is saying that the Ash administration couldn't do anything right. They did, in fact, draft a number of young players who are either contributing right now or are about to. However, I don't think they had enough success in this area, and I base this statement on the barrenness of the Jays' farm system when Ricciardi took over - there were a few guys ready to go, and nobody else north of A-ball. And no pitching at all.

And the reason why none of Ricciardi's drafts have helped the team as much as the Ash-drafted players have is simple. They've only been in pro ball for a year and a half at most. We won't be able to evaluate his drafts versus the Ash drafts fully for maybe another decade.

While it's easy to look at Rios and say "duh," I don't think there was anyone other than the Blue Jays who saw him as a first-round pick. He just screamed "Budget Pick",

But if that's the case, it's more to the Jays' credit that they saw the potential there. Rios wasn't an expensive signing, and yet he might easily end up as the best position player out of the first 100 picks of that draft.

True enough Craig. If Rios was a fluke I'd be less inclined to give the scouting staff credit but coming on the heels of picking guys like Delgado, Green, Halladay, and Wells, that's got to count for something. Even Alex Gonzalez looked like he'd have an above average career until he actually spent a couple of years in the majors.

There's no question the scouting staff had some talent at evaluating and projecting younger players. It may actually have been the coaching in the minors which was lacking as guys like Rios and Quiroz were kind of spinning their wheels until the new regime took over and implemented a system wide philosophy. Was Dustin McGowan's progress with the strikezone a coincidence or a result of the organizational focus on throwing strikes? Or his association with a strike machine like David Bush? Hard to tell.

If there was a problem with the "Wilken method" it was that it seemingly left the Jays without much depth, especially in the pitching department. The high ceiling guys tended to work out well but there would be little production outside of that.

I think the ideal situation would have featured Tim Wilken and JP Ricciardi marrying philosophies to produce the best of both worlds. Perhaps a best player available philosophy for the first couple of rounds when all of the higher ceiling guys are still on the board and a raw college approach thereafter where you can still get guys like Vermilyea, Vito, Isenberg, Peterson, and others.

Rios was considered ,by many , a very young batting machine with a risky ( his age ) but very high upside. He batted like .700 in HS and was the best position ( third base then ) player under 20 in Puerto Rico. If you have already been there with the previous phenom and see what happened with him ( Delgado ) that would give you more confidence about going for him. Negron is and was different, a solid defender with a so so bat, number 60 odd by BA for the draft, good for a late second round or worse and taken first round just to be able to pay less than a million bucks for his signing.

Begone, italics!

I'm with R Billie. It's far too early to evaluate JP's drafts; initial reports suggest that they've been very good and certainly better than Ash's drafts. JP's ability to find quality in the second through twelfth round is uncanny. However, Ash and Gillick had an absurdly good record with their first round selections, due perhaps in part to slightly riskier drafting:

1990 Steve Karsay
1991 Shawn Green
1992 Shannon Stewart
1993 Chris Carpenter
1994 Kevin Witt
1995 Roy Halladay
1996 Billy Koch and Joe Lawrence
1997 Vernon Wells
1998 Felipe Lopez
1999 Alexis Rios
2000 Miguel Negron
2001 Gabe Gross
---------------
2002 Russ Adams
2003 Aaron Hill

We can only speculate as to the reasons. In any case, now that the system is restocked with good players, I hope the Jays will start taking chances with their #1 picks again. At some point you have to try for another Halladay or Wells or Rios, even if you sometimes end up with a Miguel Negron.

I think Ash's downfall had far more to do with his inability to figure out which major leaguers were worth the salaries they sought than it did with player development (although the point about lack of minor league depth is certain valid). If Gord had been able to realize that paying the Gonzalezes and Hamiltons of the world $5 million per might keep him from affording Shawn Green then his tenure might have turned out differently.

Well with the Negron selection, maybe it just wasn't a good year for toolsy bargain players. If Rios hit .700+ in high school then it certainly explains the interest the Jays had in him with his projectable body. More often than not the Jays seemed to be good at picking the toolsy guys who demonstrated maturity and/or performance. Kind of like Grady Fuson's method in Oakland which led to the Eric Chavez and Jeremy Bonderman selections. Though I understand the A's took advantage of a technicality that made Bonderman draft eligible when other teams didn't know he was.

The Jays legacy from Pat Gillick seemed to be average tools = average players = average teams. It's hard to argue that philosophy didn't work for Gillick though his winning teams have almost always had ample financial resources. It seems to have worked for the Mariners as far as pitchers are concerned but perhaps their best hitting prospect (Chris Snelling) was a guy who had more skill and makeup than tools.

I wonder if Rios blossoms as a major leaguer if you'll see more teams focus on the island.

Obviously ,this is a country that has a rich history of producing talent.... Delgado, Alomar, Pudge-Rod,and Juan Gonzalez. Since the move to incorporate P.R. into the MLB draft in the mid-nineties(?) teams seem to have shied away on developing and drafting players off the island. Has there been a seminal shift away from baseball by young Puerto Rican athletes? The shift to the draft seems to have turned off the taps. I just wonder if there's more Alexi Rios'out there just flying under the radar?

At some point you have to try for another Halladay or Wells or Rios

On second thought, I really shouldn't have put Rios in that list, at least not yet.

We knew what you meant, John. Rios has a chance to be great, as the others already are.

I understood you to mean that you at some point have to draft players who have a chance to be great, as opposed to those with a good shot at being a solid major leaguer. Allowing that these "high ceiling" guys usually take at least 5 years to arrive, I'd say that the 2004 draft might be a good time to give that a go.

Here are the first round picks prior to 1990.

1977 Tom Goffena
1978 Lloyd Moseby
1979 Jay Schroeder
1980 Gary Harris
1981 Matt Williams
1982 Augie Schmidt
1983 Matt Stark
1984 None
1985 Greg David
1986 Earl Sanders
1987 Alex Sanchez
1988 Ed Sprague
1989 Eddie Zosky

That's pretty pathetic. What happened starting 1990? A change in philosophy or just the law of averages?

Eyeballing it, I'd imagine that the difference between those two groups can't possibly be statistically insignificant. The only guys on that list who I remember as being above-average major-league players are Moseby and, arguably, Sprague.

When did Wilken arrive?

According to my Blue Jays guidebook, Wilken arrived as a scout in 1979 but became national crosschecker in 1989. Coincidence?

It's doubtful that it was a coincidence. Wilken, Buckley, and others were credited with a lot of the success the Jays had in the 90's. Though again the Jays had a lot more financial resources starting around that time too so perhaps that also played a role in investing in the farm system.

Major league careers of these draft picks:

Year  Player           Comments

1977  Tom Goffena    
1978  Lloyd Moseby     CF; 6574 PA, 102 OPS+
1979  Jay Schroeder  
1980  Gary Harris    
1981  Matt Williams    RHP; 34 IP, 80 ERA+
1982  Augie Schmidt  
1983  Matt Stark       C; 18 PA, 16 OPS+
1984  None
1985  Greg David    
1986  Earl Sanders
1987  Alex Sanchez     RHP; 11.2 IP, 38 ERA+, 14 BB (!)
1988  Ed Sprague       3B; 4587 PA, 89 OPS+, one full season with 
                       an OPS+ over 100 -- offensive sinkhole
1989  Eddie Zosky      SS; 53 PA, 14 OPS+, played in five seasons from
                       1991 to 2000
1990  Steve Karsay     RHP; 565.2 IP, 119 ERA+
1991  Shawn Green      RF; 5557 PA, 125 OPS+
1992  Shannon Stewart  LF; 4156 PA, 110 OPS+
1993  Chris Carpenter  RHP; 870.2 IP, 99 ERA+
1994  Kevin Witt       1B; 363 PA, 80 OPS+
1995  Roy Halladay     RHP; 841.2 IP, 123 ERA+
1996  Billy Koch       RHP; 358.3 IP, 125 ERA+
      Joe Lawrence     2B; 174 PA, 37 OPS+
1997  Vernon Wells     CF; 1580 PA, 112 OPS+
1998  Felipe Lopez     SS; 730 PA, 75 OPS+, don't count him out yet
1999  Alexis Rios      CF; dominated EL and PRL in 2003
2000  Miguel Negron    CF; still in low-A ball
2001  Gabe Gross       RF; hit very well in EL and IL in 2003
2002  Russ Adams       SS; hit well in FSL and EL in 2003 
2003  Aaron Hill       SS; dominated NYPL and hit OK in FSL in 2003

Years      Good  Bad
1977-1989    2    10
1990-1998    7     3

That's counting Sprague as a useful player and Lopez as a useless one.

Dividing things at 1990 is terribly ad hoc, I'll admit. Moreover, the experience of the 1980s shows that you shouldn't turn your nose up at low-risk modest-reward collegians.

MatO: According to my Blue Jays guidebook, Wilken arrived as a scout in 1979 but became national crosschecker in 1989.

John: Dividing things at 1990 is terribly ad hoc, I'll admit.

... or perhaps not.

Nitpicking here. Didn't the Jays have a second first-rounder in 1992 by the name of Todd Steverson. Or was it a sandwich pick.

A sandwich pick, IIRC. If you count him, you have to count McGowan as well.

My Blue Jay guidebook for 1993 indicates that Steverson was a first round pick after Stewart and that Brandon Cromer was a sandwich pick.