As Robert has pointed out elsewhere, the Jays are done - the team is assembled. Barring an unexpected trade down the line, the team they've got is the team they'll go north with.

Two spots are open in spring :

Twelfth man in the bullpen, where Durocher, Chen, and Haines will duke it out with anyone else the Jays happen to sign to a minor league deal.

Fourth outfielder, where Chad Hermansen will duke it out with Jayson Werth (with Gabe Gross waiting in the wings).

I think of this one as a challenge for Mike Barnett. Last year, he coached a .274 / .340 / .382 line out of Mike Bordick, a career .260 / .323 / .362 hitter. His other star pupil topped that: Greg Myers went .307 / .374 / .502 to blow away his career line of .256 / .314 / .396. Gomez comes in as a .253 / .320 / .360 career hitter. What's his ceiling? Well, his personal bests over a full season are .267 / .346 / .410 (AVG and OBP from 1998, SLG from 2002). I'm quite hopeful that the Barnett school of hitting could help him a lot; as I mentioned in a previous thread, Chris's previously strong walk rate went in the gutter for no apparent reason 3 years ago and hasn't re-emerged. I've got my rose coloured glasses on and I'm predicting .265 / .345 / .400.

But I also predict, barring injury or lack of playing time, that Jose Hernandez and Tony Graffanino both outperfrom Gomez in 2004.

Boy, at this rate people are going to accuse the Jays of trying to buy a championship. Is this $1 million over the projected budget?

Is Wilson being dropped a sign the Jays are going with Simon Pond as a corner utility player?

I assume that Berg is the #1 utility man, with Woodward available to cover as sixth infielder if not starting. I don't think Pond is in the picture.

I wouldn't say it guarantees that Pond will get a shot. But I think probably means that he and Clark will compete for the job in spring.

Terry Adams foe 1.7 mil? I can't believe anyone would complain, this guy is a high quality reliever. His stats only suck when you look at him as a starter, but as a reliever he's been very good. I think it's a bargain and I'm suprised we nabbed him under the radar. He'll be 100 % by spring training too. I remember when we had guys like Quantrill who'd come in and be effective. I'm all for the bullpen turnover, i'm tired of biting my nails from the 6th innning on every time.

This is also official confirmation that Rich Aurilia won't be a Blue Jay in 2004 (he's rumoured to be going to Seattle). I'm more than OK with that; I was never a big fan of bringing Aurilia into the fold, at least not for the money and/or years he would have commanded. The M's supposedly are offering Aurilia $4M for one year; with that money, the Jays bought themselves the services of Terry Adams and Kerry Ligtenberg in 2004, two late-inning relievers instead of one part-time shortstop whose numbers the last two years (95 and 91 OPS+) are comparable to what Chris Woodward (110, 83 OPS+) likely will produce for $775,000. Chris Gomez, with all due respect to him, is the price you pay for making that choice; I think it's a reasonable one for a backup, and that Woody will do better in '04 than in '03. FWIW, Gomez (unlike Aurilia) also has experience playing shortstop on turf.

I'm going to take the liberty of reproducing Craig's payroll list from another thread, adjusted to take into account today's moves (some salaries are still estimates):

1 Delgado $18,500,000
2 Halladay $8,000,000
3 Batista $3,600,000
4 Lilly $2,400,000
5 Catalanotto $2,300,000
6 Hentgen $2,200,000
7 Ligtenberg $2,000,000
8 Adams $1,700,000
9 Speier $1,250,000
10 Myers $900,000
11 de los Santos $850,000
12 Hinske $800,000
13 Woodward $775,000
14 Gomez $750,000
15 Berg $700,000
16 Wells $700,000
17 Phelps $350,000
18 Hudson $320,000
19 Lopez $315,000
20 Johnson $308,000
21 Kershner $305,000
22 Towers $305,000
23 Werth $303,000
24 Cash $300,000
25 Clark $300,000
26 Haines $300,000

TOTAL: $50,531,000

Folks, that's a pretty darn good team for $50 million plus change.

I also think that there's good reason to think that Woodward will improve in 2004, at least with the bat. Not dramatically, just to somewhere between 2002 and 2003. Combine that with his solid defence (by any metric I've seen he's basically average or a bit above) and I think Gomez will do fine.

Looks like there are 23 spots set on the opening day roster, barring injury.

11 pitchers - Halladay, Batista, Lilly, Hentgen, Towers, Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, Adams, Kershner, De Los Santos

12 position players - Myers, Cash, Delgado, Phelps, Hudson, Woodward, Gomez, Hinske, Berg, Wells, Johnson, Catalanotto

That leaves 2 open spots. Pick 1 from any 2 of these 3 categories:

A 12th pitcher - Haines, Durocher, Chen, File or J.Miller

A 4th outfielder - Werth, Hermansen or Gross

An extra infielder/utility - Clark or Pond

I'd say keep Werth to take some AB's from Catalanotto against lefties, and as a defensive replacement/pinch runner, and Haines if he looks good in the spring. If he doesn't look like a keeper, there really isn't a need for 12 pitchers in April, so keep Pond or Clark around.

I think Werth's job is safer as 4th outfielder than Towers' job is as 5th starter - because, Werth is out of options, the only way he'll leave the major league roster (IMO) is via trade

However, Towers' is hit around and either J. Miller or P. Walker pitches well they could get the first handful of starts

http://economics.about.com
Terry Adams foe 1.7 mil? I can't believe anyone would complain, this guy is a high quality reliever.

He is a high quality one-inning reliever, and to get a quality reliever for that price *is* a deal. I'm surprised he didn't get more and/or a two year deal.

The problem is that Speier, Lopez, Ligtenberg, and de los Santos are also good/great one-inning relievers. Kershner was solid in 2003, and Haines looks like a good one-inning prospect as well.

Where are the long relievers? Are the Jays not going to carry one? Is Chen going to make the club out of camp?

I hope everyone likes 5-relievers-in-3-innings games, because it looks like the Jays are going to have a lot of them next year.

Cheers,

Mike

Why not Ordonez? Gomez is so marginal as a batter that there is really little difference to Ordonez. And with Ordonez the Jays would have had one of the best defenders at the one pivotal defensive positions.

Must have misread it Geoff -- Walker was "designated for assignment", which I take to mean he won't be back since he was dropped from the 40-man. That being said, I think Justin Miller will be the long man/emergency starter in April, unless he pitches well enough to bump Towers into the pen.

Oops, it looks like I misread things too -- make Adams the 7th man, not Miller. Missed that. :)

The headline on TSN.ca is along the lines of 'Jays Sign Adams, Gomez'. Talk about missing the boat. 'Jays Sign Gomez, Adams' would have been much better in the sense that it would have pleased all the John Astin and Raul Julia fans out there.

Rob, if Walker makes it's through waivers he should return to the Jays minor league system as I don't believe he has enough service time to refuse assignment. Though I believe he can also refuse assignment if he has been outrighted to the majors once already in his career. I'm not sure if he has been outrighted before or not though, anyone know?

I hope everyone likes 5-relievers-in-3-innings games, because it looks like the Jays are going to have a lot of them next year.

Off in a meadow, Carlos dances a jig.

http://economics.about.com
The headline on TSN.ca is along the lines of 'Jays Sign Adams, Gomez'. Talk about missing the boat. 'Jays Sign Gomez, Adams' would have been much better in the sense that it would have pleased all the John Astin and Raul Julia fans out there.

Didn't they get it right, seeing as his name is "Gomez Adams".

I mean, "Weakly Dominated Sign Moffatt, Mike" makes more sense than "Weakly Dominated Sign Mike, Moffatt"

Cheers,

Moffatt, Mike

(Weakly Dominated being the name of the slowpitch team I played for last year).

Great work by J.P. and company. They have addressed every need and go into spring training with very few question marks and plenty of depth. There will be pressure on Chris Woodward to reduce his defensive lapses, but Gomez, as Jonny points out, could be very similar to Bordick if Woody can't seize the everyday job.

Unless Haines proves to be a real keeper, I hope they go with 11 pitchers and the extra bat off the bench; I'm rooting for Simon Pond to get a look because he's Canadian and an underdog. I think Hermansen is just injury insurance and Werth will be given one last opportunity. Against lefties, Jayson can play RF with Johnson shifting to left and Catalanotto resting. If (when?) Gross gets the call, I hope he plays every day, even if that reduces Sparky's role.

Syracuse also has a vastly improved team. If Rios manhandles AAA pitching for half a season, that's a pleasant problem to have. It might mean we say a bittersweet farewell to Cat in a midseason trade.

Where are the long relievers?

In a 6-man bullpen, you don't have a "mopup man," so I'd say Adams and Kershner are the guys. If a starter is knocked out early, either can handle an occasional three-inning appearance, well enough to give the team a comeback chance. The same goes for extra innings. If they keep a 12th pitcher, there really won't be a lot of work for him.

In the latest chapter of the Pinstriped Bible, Steven Goldman has some interesting observations on the local nine:

The Jays seem to be on the precipice of making the AL East a three-team race. The 2003 Jays were reminiscent of the 1984 Jays; a team that had all the parts necessary to win a division but hadn't quite figured out how to organize them. Jimmy Key was there, but he was in the bullpen. Jesse Barfield was splitting time with Dave Collins (who was actually terrific that year). Tony Fernandez was playing behind Alfredo Griffin.

The '84 Jays were short one starting pitcher and a closer; they fixed the latter problem by acquiring Tom Henke and Bill Caudill, the former by moving Jimmy Key to the rotation. That gave them three strong starters: Dave Stieb, Doyle Alexander, and Key. The 2003 Jays were short three starting pitchers and a closer. They've added Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista, Pat Hentgen, among others. No Caudill yet, but Justin Speier, your life is calling.

If Speier turns out more like Henke than Caudill, it's going to be a lot of fun around here next season. For those too young to remember, the '85 Jays lost the ALCS in seven games to the world champion Royals.

Why not Ordonez? Gomez is so marginal as a batter that there is really little difference to Ordonez.

I was thinking the same thing. I remember hearing that Gomez isn't great at SS- anyone know if that's true? If it is, he basically looks a lot like Wood- potentially OK bat, mediocre glove. Why carry 2 players with the same set of mediocre skills?

Just a minor complaint. Good job this offseason by JP, though I still think a great glove/no hit SS would help a lot.

I was 11 years old and a huge fan of Stieb and Co back then.

Probably the toughest playoff loss to swallow, but slightly less agonizing than 1987.

My first ever Blue Jay game was during the playoffs in '85. I don't remember a whole lot though...I was only 5. A team like that is what we're all dreaming about. I don't think there was anyone as good as the Yanks/Red Sox that year however.

Some astute observations from Goldman, but he implies that Henke pushed Key into the rotation. Key spent his first year in the pen - that was the policy for rookie pitchers during the Gillick days (with very few exceptions). Key's progression to the starting rotation for 1985 was probably decided well before the start of the season.

Henke, meanwhile, was rescued from Texas in the free-agent compensation pool and deposited in Syracuse. He spent most of 1985 there compiling surreal numbers. Being a fledgling analyst and Blue Jays fan, I told anyone who had any interest in the team that this guy (Henke) had to come up and that he was going to be the solution to the horrific endgames the Jays had engaged in, with closers from Joey McLaughlin through to Bill Caudill providing the pyrotechnics.

What are surreal AAA numbers you may ask? How about 51.1 innings, 18 walks (2 IW), 60 K, 13 HITS, 5 runs allowed. Henke came up for the last month and a half of the season and the rest is history. He may go down as the most underrated closer to date, as he was nearly as good as Lee Smith and far better than Jeff Reardon.

For those too young to remember, the '85 Jays lost the ALCS in seven games to the world champion Royals.

More importantly, they won 99 games and beat the Yankees for the division on the second-last day of the season.

I was old enough to be a baseball fan that year, but I was not a baseball fan. I wouldn't clue in until the following summer.

Robert, you left out Henke's ERA from Syracuse in '85, which I can remember by heart: 0.88. He was the IL's Pitcher of the Year and he was only there until July. Watching his debut in Baltimore is one Jays game I will never forget. When he dropped his 235 pounds to the side to register a punch-out my jaw hit the floor.

The 85 Jays are the reason I am a baseball fan in general and a Blue Jays fan specifically. At the time I was 9 years old and watched only hockey and soccer. My family had only been in Canada for 2 years at the time and came from a soccer mad nation. To my family, baseball was a game played by fat guys who couldn't play any real sports. During that summer I got a bad case of Chicken Pox and was cooped up in the house for 3 weeks. During those 3 weeks, the only thing I had to look forward to everyday were the Jays radio broadcasts and the few games that were televised. The Jays pennant chase got me hooked on baseball. Eventually my chicken pox went away but my baseball fever remains to this day.

It's a fine 25, but for me, the real action at the start of the season will be in Syracuse where Rios, Gross, Quiroz, Bush, Arnold and hopefully Chen will be. With luck, by July, three of them will be ready to contribute at the major league level. I feel that the Fighting Jays' season will turn in large part on the progress of the kids.

I will be very disappointed if Chen is the 12th pitcher on the major league roster. I'd like him to be working with Arnsberg in Syracuse, for a couple of months. In the long run, I see him as a capable starter notwithstanding his numerous troubles in the big leagues to date.

i think kershner will be the long guy. he was a pretty good long guy for the blue jays last year. he had two 3+ inning relief appearances last year

Yeah, Kershner shutting down the Yanks for 3+ innings is what I will always remember about him from last year.

I'm sure Terry Adams can manage the occasional 2 or 3 inning stint being a former starter and Speier can probably go a couple of innings when needed. Ligtenberg had extreme problems versus lefties last year and Lopez had a similar split. I'm not sure if either guy is capable of improving on that but they're both strong enough against righties that they should get a lot of use.

As long as we don't see crazy pitcher juggling again the Jays should be able to get a lot of mileage out of this pen. The good thing about having a lot of righties of similar ability is that you don't have to worry as much about wearing one guy (like Lopez) out from repeated use.

Mike G - I agree on Chen. If he can get his head on straight he could be a great bargain.

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040108/JAYS08/TPSports/Baseball
Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail checks in with an article on the Gomez & Adams signings (COMN). He talks mostly about Terry's off-field issues this past season. It doesn't look like we're going to learn much more about the disorderly conduct from Adams.

"That's done and over," was all Adams would say about the matter yesterday.

In regards to Adams' health, J.P. Ricciardi offers a mixed message; he quotes Florida doctor Tony Mirabella as saying Terry's arm looks great, and Terry himself as saying it was the first time in a while he was able to fully straighten his elbow.

The problem with getting Rey Ordonez instead of Gomez to be the backup at short is that Ordonez isn't really a very good shortstop anymore, either. He's definitely somewhat better with the bat than he used to be - he must be lifting weights or has a changed approach, because he has more power than he once did (though really only a tiny smidgin).

But defensively, he's making more errors and has less range than he once did. He's probably not far different from Woodward in what he can get to now and the numbers bear that out.

I think I might rather have Ordonez than Gomez too (I don't think Gomez can play short much anymore - his numbers were bad and if he could play, he probably would have been playing more instead of Cristian Guzman, who's visibly and obviously bad defensively) but with cost worked into the consideration I'm not as sure. I don't think Ordonez will want to play for $750,000 - and he also might not have wanted to play in Toronto.

Terry himself as saying it was the first time in a while he was able to fully straighten his elbow

I think that sounds a lot worse than it actually is.

Back in my soccer playing days I sprained my knee a few times and had scar tissue build up in there. I couldn't fully extend my leg because the scar tissue was in the joint, but it didn't prevent me from doing anything, it was more of an annoyance. Once it's scoped out it's as good as new.

Sounds like TA (everytime I see Adams I think of Russ) had the same thing with his elbow.

Looking at that projected payroll, I'm stunned by one thing:

17 of the players are going to be making less than $1,000,000 this year.

But if you listened to the casual fan, you'd swear that EVERY player on every team makes at least a million dollars. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see an article by Griffin that points out that the "average Jay" makes almost $2,000,000 and how they should be getting "more for their money".

White lies, lies and statistics...

Chris Gomez??? Eccch. I'd rather have Luis Gomez on the team.

Craig - I think I would have rather played Gomez than Guzman as well, or Luis Rivas for that matter. The fact is, the Twins have no concept of what makes a good middle infielder and I don't think their opinion in this matter is of any relevance. =)

From the Globe and Mail article referenced by Jonny.

"Ricciardi said the two acquisitions meant the Blue Jays were "95-per-cent done" constructing their roster."

This implies there is at least some moves to come (at least one, maybe two) before ST starts. Could that mean a trade of some sort, or as speculated by other bauxites maybe the Jays will sign FAs to minor league deals with invites to attend spring training.

Let's hope for some sort of trade to keep the off season interesting. However, I have no idea of what they Jays still require as they have addressed the bullpen and starting pitching (last year's biggest problems)and added a backup IF to replace Bordick.

Maybe they would like a proven 4th OF, but you would hope that they give Werth a legit shot at it first. Maybe a backup corner IF, now that Wilson is a Padre I'm not sure who they would go to in an emergency.

Now that the the 2004 payroll is finallized I wonder if we can't guestimate the 2005 payroll and the amount of funds available to sign Delgado after this year. I figure Halladay has an increase of $4M on the second year of a long-term deal. Wells and Hinske are due I think about $3M each more. Batista about $1M and Ligtenburg $.5M. So that's about $11.5M committed of the $19M saved on Delgado's deal. You'd have to add in a few miilion more for other raises. By replacing Myers, Cat and Hentgen with younger players you save about $5M. I'm also assuming that Hudson and Phelps aren't yet eligible for arbitration after 2004. It wouldn't surprise me if JP didn't try to ink both to long-term Wells/Hinske-like deals which might affect 2006 and beyond. The way it looks right now I think that $10M might be the max that the Jays can offer him. The bottom line is that the development of Rios, Quiroz, Bush, McGowan and other prospects might well be the factor which determines whether the Jays can afford Delgado. It also would help if Rogers raised the budget by $5M.

http://economics.about.com
While I'm still a little worried about the lack of a long man (and about a bunch of 5 reliever games), this group is head and shoulders above what the Jays trotted out last year. The best part is that the Jays won't have to dredge up retreads and notreads in May and June again. Remember the revolving door of guys like Acevedo, Service, and Wasdin? Check out all the relief appearances this group got last year:

Player	RA
Politte	54
Tam	44
Sturtze	32
Creek	21
Reic'rt	15
Service	15
Acevedo	14
Linton	7
Bowles	5
Thurman	3
Davis	1
Wasdin	1
TOTAL	212

Cheers,

Mike

I was a big fan of Tom Wilson. He's clearly a good guy and a good story. What I'm not a fan of is carrying three catchers on an AL team and as a result, I'm very glad to see this move.

Looking forward, Phelps will now get the playing time at first that Wilson would have received. This is key for the team going forward. Phelps is currently a very bad first baseman and can't learn how to play there if not given an opportunity. And who's likely to be playing first for the Blue Jays in 2005?

Pete Walker was somewhat useful in previous years but was a mediocre piece on a team that was becoming less and less so. As I said in a previous thread, his role is valuable. He is not.

For me, the most intriguing move in all of this is that the Padres designated Brandon Villafuerte for assignment. Kevin Towers was applauded for picking the guy up before the 2002 season. Aside from a few game in a row during the last half of April 2003, he hasn't done anything since becoming a Padre but pitch well. Why he merits a ditching is beyond me. If the Jays didn't have a full pen already...

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001300.shtml
I wouldn't be surprised to see an article by Griffin that points out that the "average Jay" makes almost $2,000,000 and how they should be getting "more for their money".

That's very unfair, Griffin's most recent article on this topic described how the Jays are getting the best bang for their buck in the division. COMN for the Box discussion.

Villafuerte is interesting, but he had shoulder problems last year and was in triple A for most of the season. His walk and HR rate in the majors over the last 2 years is high. Notwithstanding these negatives, I hope that some team looks at his triple A performance and decides that he deserves a look.

Check that. Hinske and Wells receive increases of $2.2M each in 2005.

Ah...Villefuerte...my misguided mid-round draft pick in the BBFL. Let that be a lesson not to trust green pitchers in high profile roles. The Jays might actually do well though to pick him up, especially if he clears waivers (which I don't expect he will). If he makes it to the Jays on the waiver wire I might consider having him ahead of Haines.

Brandon had some bad times in the AL when he was younger. A 12.60 era but that was in all of 10 innings split between two seasons and two different teams. His more recent National League numbers are more reasonable...2.97 ERA in 72.2 innings allowing 68 hits and 9 homeruns with 38 walks and 59 punchouts. Not very good numbers but worth a minor league deal.

If Jays fans want to feel even better about the price paid for Adams, consider that the Cards have just signed Julian Tavarez for 2 years and $4.2MM.

My, how times have changed.

Yeah, I had a good laugh too.  To be fair, Terry Adams looked like a decent signing at the time.  But I am really glad that the Jays don't have a $50 million payroll anymore!