Will the Rule V draft happen at this meeting. Its seem late this year.
Is there another Lopez out there for JP to snap up?

Yup, Rule 5 is on Monday in N.O. I wouldn't count on another Aquilino, but youneverknow.

Reading at ESPN.com and came across this story http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1682657 about the Expos playing in San Juan. Near the end of the article it states that the Jays/Expos series on July 2 -4 is one of the tentatively scheduled series. Is mlb really that stupid as to take the two Canadian teams out of the country against each other? Especially around a national holiday?!!

Near the end of the article it states that the Jays/Expos series on July 2 -4 is one of the tentatively scheduled series.

I believe the powers that be in San Juan asked for the Jays series as they expect Delgado to be a huge draw.

Here is my bold and brash prediction for the events taking place in the Big Easy. If the Jays fail to land Batista or whoever they are trying to sign as a starter, Orlando Hudson will be dealt for pitching by Monday. I am ready for the wrath of the readers.

For a frontline #3-4 starter? Not likely. Prospect/bullpen help maybe.
Who would start in his place? If I were JP I would have to be blown away for this to happen.

Cbssportsline.com's Eric Mack has these do(s) and don't(s) for the Jays, leading up to the Winter Meetings:

Do
... try to lock up Cy Halladay long term. His stock might be a little high right now, but with the Jays being perhaps a year away, they'll want Halladay around for it.
... win this season. Otherwise you're going to be dealing Carlos Delgado for much less than market value. He wants to win and can walk in 2004.
... find one more affordable outfield bat. System products Jayson Werth, Gabe Gross, Alexis Rios and John Ford-Griffin might not be far off.
... hope Eric Hinske has his sophomore slump out of his system. His 45 doubles suggest he'll be fine.
Don't
... rush your pitching prospects, namely Dustin McGowan and Jason Arnold.
... trade Orlando Hudson. You need to have young, cheap guys like him having breakthroughs.
... lose patience with Chris Woodward. The emergence of him and Hudson is a must up the middle.
... play revolving door with your closers. Find someone to trust on a nightly basis.

Key to offseason

Staying patient and value picking. This team is at a crossroads. The young talent needs to start producing wins and ticket sales -- or else Halladay and Delgado might have to get sent out, and another rebuilding process will have to start. Watch out for the aggressive Orioles -- the Jays need to be the ones on the Red Sox and Yankees' heels.

Bad italics!



Hopefully, that worked.

"Replace Phelps with a solid veteran DH. Jaun Gonzalez and Raphael Palmeiro would come cheap and would look great in the 5-6 hole"

If JP trades Phelps (age 25, career OBP/SLG: .355/.497) to pay more money for Juan Gonzalez (age 34, .344/.563), I'll personally refuse to go to any Jays games this year.

I don't think the Jays should be trading any position players (or power DH's) who are cheap if they can help it. If it turns out Delgado leaves then they'll need all the flexibility they can get and Hudson and Phelps making near the minimum offer that.

The Orioles might well pick up Guerrero and another big bat or even two and they're going to feature a much tougher lineup in 2004. I wouldn't get too comfortable with the positional depth if I were the Jays.

I also think Hudson still has some improvement left in him. I wouldn't be suprised to see him hit .290 this year if he can make even a faint improvement from the right side.

Palmeiro, at least, is a better hitter for his career than Phelps (Palmeiro is .373/.522), but Palmeiro last year (.359/.508) wasn't much better than Phelps last year (.358/.470), and they're going in opposite directions.

If we could get someone way better than Sheets for Phelps, making the trade worthwhile, I'd rather put, say, Jeremey Giambi in the DH slot for a few months at no cost, and then bring up JFG in July or August.

how much should Arthur Rhodes get?

If Terry Ryan reads Aaron Gleeman -- and he should -- I think Rhodes will be too rich for the Jays. Maybe I'm still smarting from the Sirotka scam, but west coast observers like our own Lefty and the astute U.S.S. Mariner authors are not sure Arthur is 100% sound, so I'd be reluctant to pay him what he's "worth" without a clean bill of health from a very thorough physical. If he became a Jay for one year, with incentives and a team option, I'd be thrilled, but he'll probably get much better offers than that.

I'll personally refuse to go to any Jays games this year.

I agree, Andrew. But if your other suggestion...

put, say, Jeremey Giambi in the DH slot

...came to pass, I'd not only personally refuse to go to Jays games, but I'd move to Toronto in order to stage a hunger strike where the Blue Jays Drummer used to play.

Replacing the humble, dedicated, intelligent and improving Phelps with -- Little G?!?! Maybe you're thinking, "how bad of a guy can he be with all those walks?" Believe me, you'd find out.

(And yes, my vendetta has crept into "irrational" territory. But at least I have an ally in Gitz.)

John Thomson's new contract with the Braves is $7 million for 2 years. Thomson's 3.5/yr and Colon's 12/yr provide a good indication of where Batista will likely settle, in the 5-7 range.

Jose Hernandez makes me similarly twitchy.

I don't get the same kind of cold sweats about the Glanvilles, Goodwins and Tyners of the world because I know that the Jays laugh off players like that. What worries me is the club investing in the sabermetrically-intriguing-yet-horrifyingly-sucky-and-jerks-to-boot types.

Fernando Vina is a Tiger for $6M over 2 years. Considering he's played for Milwaukee so recently, why on earth would he want to go back to another *bad* organizaton?

Best advice I can give to the Jays - CHANGE DIVISIONS!!!

http://economics.about.com
Fernando Vina is a Tiger for $6M over 2 years. Considering he's played for Milwaukee so recently, why on earth would he want to go back to another *bad* organizaton?

There's about 6 million reasons why he'd make such a move.

Mike

I note that Scott Sullivan went to the Royals for two years for Ligtenberg money. Does this suggest Ricciardi wasn't really interested? Oh, and Loo-zana has only two syllables.

in order to stage a hunger strike where the Blue Jays Drummer used to play

I miss the drummer.

What worries me is the club investing in the sabermetrically-intriguing-yet-horrifyingly-sucky-and-jerks-to-boot types.

Honestly, they might take a flyer on a guy with a bad rap, but for the most part, there is nothing to worry about there. I have always gotten a feeling from the front office that they consider "clubhouse chemistry" to be extremely important. I can't ever recall such an emphasis from a front office (always soft-pedalled, but always there) about the conduct and attitude of its players.

This is why I am so intrigued by the possibility of bringing in Batista. A veteran who has bounced around some, a mature and intelligent player (forget guys like Schilling or Glanville... Batista is a step above in terms of intelligence and class). Batista is a poet and novelist, he has future amibitions outside baseball, he is a terrific pitcher but he's more than that.

A quote from Bob Brenly, his manager in Phoenix...

"He is a refreshing breath of fresh air. Not that this is a criticism, but if you are not talking about fantasy football or baseball or girls, most ballplayers don't have much to say.

"Miguel's got opinions on everything. He's extremely well-read, extremely well-spoken and a very thoughtful, caring human being. And he's a great pitcher on top of it. He's fun to be around."

It's the main reason I'm convinced that Batista is going to start 2004 in a Jays uniform. He has all the mound tools, and he's been a very unsung player... he's got those saber credentials. But he has the "new Jays" mentality too, like the DH, like the first baseman, like the manager, like Mike Bordick did, and so forth. Not just thinking man's ballplayers, but thinking men.

I wouldn't be trading Orlando Hudson OR Josh Phelps unless i'm blown away by something so tantalizing that I just have to make the deal. To me tho that doesn't seem very likely. I do have to wonder why everybody has been screaming about Orlando being traded for the last year or so. It would be nice to have a veteran OF bat that could play a couple times a week. Has Brian Jordan signed with anybody? He'd be a good bat to have off the bench and to play in the OF for a bit.

I wouldn't want to see Juan Gonzalez OR Little G in the Toronto lineup as they're both examples of bad clubhouse guys who just sour everything up everywhere they go. Tho it would be nice if Raffi Palmeiro was in a Jays uniform. If he was a few yrs younger I would trade Phelps for him.

Should be a hum-dinger at the winter meetings! Let's hope we get Batista.

Craig, I hope your prediction right.

You're certainly right about the drummer; I miss him too. Does anybody remember why he quit? Was it just the dwindling attendance?

Your prediction *is* right, that is...lousy typos.

That's the thing that has shocked me most about the Ricciardi regime - I think we all assumed a former Oakland staffer would be solid sabrmetrically, but JP's skill in building a clubhouse has come out of nowhere. If you'd asked me a year or two ago, I'd have said that such a thing was gibberish (no such thing as a 'character player', etc) - but player after player has commented on what a great team this was to play on last year. Happy players perform better, and it has obviously helped the Jays in the FA market (Cat, KL). If it helps us keep Carlos and Doc at a discount, even better. Just goes to show you yet another way that going against the grain can pay dividends.

Craig, I'm going to kill you if Batista signs elsewhere - after reading that about him, I'd be devestated to see someone like Wilson Alvarez in his place (both from an objective and non-objective standpoint). =P

If this article is to be believed, the poet is inspired with the possibility of playing in New York. He is said to be waiting for the Mets to make an offer before deciding where to sign. Not including the Mets, Batista already has 4 different offers to weigh. I have faith in JP's abilities to convince him to come to Toronto but I'm not holding my breath.

Why is everyone so high on Batista? If the Blue Jays were willing to pend 5-7 million on a starting pitcher, than they should have just re-signed Escobar. Look at their histories, Batista and Escobar are both similar in that they have shifted between the starting rotation and the bullpen. The difference? Escobar is 5 years younger, has more wins under his belt and profiles as more of a frontline starter in that he's a power pitcher. Batista would be fine --- but for 5-7 million?!?! --- the Jays should spend their dollars elsewhere...

I would like to see who gets non tendered before spending too much money. There could be some great options after Dec 20th.

David Cameron said a few interesting things on his just-completed BP chat (among obvious things like how sexy Alexis Rios and Dustin McGowan are). For example, that Jason Arnold only projects as a middle reliever. I had thought he had a higher ceiling than that?

He also said that it would be a surprise if more than one of the current C crop (Mauer, Mathis, Quiroz, Shoppach) ended up as an all-star. I guess the smart money's on Mauer, but I think Guillermo has the potential to be the one.

Little G. to the Blue Jays???? Say it ain't so!

Craig, the Jays did sign Bruce Chen (albeit to a minor-league deal), so I'm not sure they're entirely governed by this "good guy" mentality. But, overall, as you say, it would appear that way.

I don't think Chen has a reputation as an asshole, just as a head-case with bad work ethic. In fact, he's supposed to be a very nice kid who for whatever reason cannot figure out how to stop his fastball from ending up in the center field stands.
I think some good role models could be just the thing. Pat, Roy, meet Bruce.

I would expect Batista to have an ERA of about 4 in the Skydome, and give you 160-180 innings. This is a conservative projection based on his performance in Arizona the last 3 years, which has been remarkably consistent. In other words, his projections are modestly better than Cory Lidle's would have been last year.

Is this worth $5 million? Yes, I think so. $7 million? Yikes, that figure would make me nervous, and I don't think I'd do it unless ownership would expand the budget a bit in the (perhaps unlikely) event that the Jays are contending in late July. Billy Beane's philosophy of having a little cash around for a mid-season acquisition has always made sense to me.

As for Escobar, the issue is not talent, of which he has plenty, but risk. His career has been marked by inconsistency. If one is convinced that he is likely to pitch 180 plus innings at the level that he did last year (his contract year) or better, he is a fine risk. If one is not, then he is a poor risk. It's kind of like the discussion you might have an investment adviser after you are asked: "how risk tolerant are you?"

A head case with a bad work ethic? That's not baseball-speak for "asshole"? Granted, he may not endorse torturing chickens or anything, but that's not the kind of player I want in my clubhouse.

S.K., I'd say major-league middle reliever is Jason Arnold's baseline. Triple-A was his first major struggle, and he has plenty of talent and intelligence to work with. And the Jays, to their great credit, are not rushing him: he'll have all year in AAA if he needs it. To my mind, he's a mid-to-back rotation guy or a very solid short reliever. It's way too early to write him off.

Gitz - take Roger Clemens as an example of a guy who I consider to be an asshole. Very focused, great work ethic.
The way I see it, work ethic can be learned - take a guy like Halladay, who has said right out that he had no idea how to prepare himself or work out when he first came up. I'm not saying Chen is going to be transformed necessarily, just that it's worth a try to see if guys like Doc and Hentgen can teach him what it takes to be a successful major league pitcher. And like I said, he seems like a perfectly nice kid.

I seem to be disagreeing with you a lot today, G. I'm turning into Moffat.

Down here in Atlanta, Maddux and Glavine and Leo tried to teach ole Bruce a thing or two about pitching, but he wasn't listening. I hope for yall's sake he is now.

Re: the difference between a guy like Bruce Chen and an asshole. Bruce Chen isn't an asshole. John Rocker IS an asshole. Gary Sheffield (despite his good relations with the Atlanta media and his teammates) is an asshole.

ESPN Radio says that Andy Pettitte is an Astro

Re: Chen - I don't hold a lot of hope for him picking up much from Halladay and Hentgen if he did not pick it up from Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz. Still, you never know when maturity might settle in. He is a low cost gamble.

There is an interesting article in Baseball Prospectus today (in Roundtable) where they discuss (among other things) how the Giants took Michael Tucker just before the Dec 7 deadline so they would lose their first round pick!!

I don't know about you but one thing I enjoy about baseball is the player development side of things. I would be livid if the Jays did this - of course I don't think they would - I hope...

I'm sure I screwed up the link but there is a very candid interview with JP that (of all people) Marty York penned. The gist is that plan A is Batista or Ponson, and plan B is Suppan, Astacio or Rogers.

Good read.

ESPN Radio says that Andy Pettitte is an Astro

This news, combined with the Sheffield is miffed at the Yankees story, is making my day.

Doh!!! Sorry about the link. The site is sportsnet.ca.

I found that interesting too, but I wouldn't worry about that from a Jays p.o.v., because as a small-market (or smaller than the Giants) club we are committed to continually rebuilding through the draft, and secondly, we do not have the win-now approach the Giants have to have when they have Bonds under contract. The Jays would never intentionally lose a pick to sign a marginal talent like Michael Tucker.

Dammit

Work NOW!

Interesting Marty York article. Thanks Blue for bringing it to everyone's attention. JP also reiterates that he isn't actively shopping Hudson and that he hasn't received any offers from other teams. As for Ponson, I was under the impression that he may be damaged goods. I'm sure I picked this up somewhere although I don't remember where.

Yuck, Ponson. I don't trust Sir Sidney as a pitcher. It's possible that he's finally put it together, and it's possible that he hasn't been irretrievably overworked, but even if that's true, I hope some other team gets the benefit of his services. I'd much rather Batista, especially after Craig's post.

Marty's column now has its own thread.

There is an interesting article in Baseball Prospectus today (in Roundtable) where they discuss (among other things) how the Giants took Michael Tucker just before the Dec 7 deadline so they would lose their first round pick!!

Too bad they didn't want Lidle if they wanted to give the pick up so badly.

I think Sabean has an interesting idea by intentionally forfeiting the pick. Given the success rate of 1st rounders it's not necessarily a bad idea. But using that money on Michael Tucker is curious.

And now the Pettitte rumour/story has its own thread. I'm the hardest-working man in blogging....

My take on Sabean deliberately forfeiting his first-round pick, I emailed to the gang last night...

"Intentionally forfeiting a first-round pick because you don't want to pay a big signing bonus is like cutting off your johnson because you find it uncomfortable wearing a condom."

Basically... there is no reason you have to pay your first-round pick a million dollars, unless you want to. Teams are free to negotiate any signing bonus they like. Use that pick to draft a guy you think of as a fifth-rounder... at least you're getting an extra pick.

If he doesn't sign, you know what you get? A bonus sandwich pick!

Spencer Fordin has a fine piece on Rios on the Blue Jay website--asking LaCava and Scott many of the questions everybody here has been trying to answer. Well worth the read. Just one update--it said that he has hit five homes in the PR league; he now has six after last night.

I seem to be disagreeing with you a lot today, G. I'm turning into Moffat.

Thanks for saying that, S.K., but I wouldn't worry too much, if in fact you are even the least bit concerned. I seldom take things personally here, unless those things are about Miguel Tejada (wink, wink). Many people disagree with me most of the time, including, regrettably, my wife, who is the smartest person I know. (Not smart enough to have avoided me, yuk yuk yuk.) I'd like to think it's because you're all small-minded, ignorant fools who haven't yet seen The Light, but the truth is probably the one I am loath to admit: that I'm the fool. I'll keep trying, though!

After all, hard work seems to have worked for Moffatt, who is an OK fellow despite been dealt the cruel hand of being tall, thin, nerdish, and Canadian. At least, if I believe my media and my government, I'm pretty sure than every non-American is inferior. This is true, isn't it?

The power of the condensed quote (how Bushies make commercials):

"I wouldn't worry too much," said John Gizzi, who bizarrely added, "Miguel Tejada ... is the smartest person I know."

Continuing, Gizzi noted, "... you're all small-minded, ignorant fools who haven't yet seen The Light ... dealt the cruel hand of being ... Canadian."

Concluded Gizzi, "... every non-American is inferior."

The power of context revealed!

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110004405
The power of the condensed quote (how Bushies make commercials):

Actually, this is how liberals work.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110004405

Maybe you should put that partisan brush away, huh Mick?

Supposedly there is a radio report saying that Mike Cameron has signed with the A's.

I await Gitz's reaction. Isn't that a waste of Kotsay in a corner slot? Damn but the A's will have excellent OF defense, much like the M's used to enjoy.

There's no better place to put this... Doesn't sound like this guy is too optimistic about Lilly's chances with the Jays. It's from a list of the top 10 offseason moves as pertaining to fantasy baseball by Eric Karabell at ESPN.com.

"The Bobby Kielty-Ted Lilly deal might also mean little. Kielty is still not guaranteed 500 at-bats, nor are we sure he'll be a 20-homer guy if he gets the chance. Lilly had a high ERA in Oakland, and now heads to a definite hitter's park. Check out what Cory Lidle did in the same switch of teams a year earlier"

And this was before the Cameron to the A's rumor gained the steam it has this evening. BTW, how much can we assume Cameron's outfield defence would help the Big Three's stats?

The Reality Department seems to have had too many cuts made to it by the hostile neo-liberal agenda. If the Reality Dept had the appropriate funding and employed unionized workers who were treated with conditions that allowed them to work at their optimal efficeincy it may have realized that being "liberal" doesn't automatically make Mick (or anyone else) reader of MisLead. Making such rash assumptions doesn't lend any more credibility to the Reality Dept than oodles of quotes that include more "..."'s than words :-P (though I'd say it was more proving a point than anything else)

Further, I'd say the Reality Dept is now making irrational suggestions because nowhere on MisLeader or their parent site, MoveOn, does it state or imply a tie to any political party and thus could not be considered partisan.
...I was never really fond of taking advice on how my reality should look from a governmental department and I'm really surprised that a neo-liberal would be so inclined to include government in any additional aspect of his life. So maybe we oughtta just cut the Reality Department and post with the names we usually do.

-Adam

Your "non-partisan" point is a bit shaky, Adam, but your "big-government Reality Department" is hilarious.

I like your style, kid!

http://economics.about.com
I seem to be disagreeing with you a lot today, G. I'm turning into Moffat.

That's not pretty. My typical day consists of:

* Microsoft Products
* Hiding From My Bosses
* 10 Cups of Coffee
* Hyperactivity
* 14 Hour Work Days

I wouldn't recommend it to anyone. At the same time, I wouldn't give it up for anything.

Gitz is actually one of my three favorite writers here, and I quite like him. His posts do occasionally come off as very, very bitter but that's probably from the limitation of text communication and my proclivity to read too much into things.

I object to being called "nerdish", though, mainly because it's pretty redundant. I went to the Toronto Pizza Feed, and my nerdocity didn't seem to stand out any relative to the other Boxers. Heck, I even brought a date! :)

Cheers,

Mike

Adam, the reason that MoveOn and Mislead do not list any Party affiliation is because it would be illeagal to do so. If they were to list affiliations they would find themselves under a different set of rules and regulation - never mind tax considerations - that would keep them from doing the things that they do. Right, end of politics.
jason

I've been accused of partisan politics in many of the movements I've been apart of from observers with the same rationale you use, Jason. Of course that isn't the way I've worked (though I do hold a membership) because there is a clear line between, for example anti-Tory and pro-Liberal/NDP. I'm sure party memberships are held by some of the writers/creators but it's still not partisanship.

Adam:
You say: "nowhere on MisLeader or their parent site, MoveOn, does it state or imply a tie to any political party and thus could not be considered partisan."
I say "the reason that MoveOn and Mislead do not list any Party affiliation is because it would be illeagal to do so."
Yes, I did imply partisanship. I also stated a fact. And incidently, the mere absence of party affiliation does not mean there is no partisanship.
Sorry you all. NO MORE POLITICS.
jason

No more politics? Impossible. Everything is political. Even -- and since about 1977, maybe especially -- baseball.

I am also proud by association of the clever obfuscation of Mike Moffatt, who writes Gitz is actually one of my three favorite writers here, thus allowing all of the rest of us to take the compliment and wonder who the other one is.

I can say with confidence that I am not the most liberal member of the ZLC. Considering that this place is littered with lawyers and economists, that's saying something. I will simply avow that I am to the left of John Rocker and Bob Knepper and to the right of Mike Kekich and Fritz Peterson.

There we go. Nothing out of context. Mission Accomplished.

Gitz is actually one of my three favorite writers here, and I quite like him. His posts do occasionally come off as very, very bitter but that's probably from the limitation of text communication and my proclivity to read too much into things.

No, you're spot on, Mike. I am quite bitter about a number of things, but there is, of course, playfulness in my rants, and if you met me in person, you'd see this quite easily. My aunt, upon reading one of my business magazine columns, said, "I never realized what as delightful little curmudgeon you are." Bingo.

Mick and Coach must know how difficult it is for me to pass on political issues ... but I will do just that. Now forgive me whilst I punch a pillow a few thousand times.

It's OK, Gitz. I'm biting my lip too.

Just take it over to Primer.

Everything is political. Even -- and since about 1977, maybe especially -- baseball.

Baseball the institution is political (it is everywhere, not just here in North America).

Baseball the business is political.

Major League Baseball, as a collection of owners, front offices, managers, and players is certainly political - highly so.

But the baseball we care most about, baseball the game... that's not political. That isn't political at all, except in the most abstract sense, like the dynamics of power and control in the battle between the pitcher and the batter.

In the Japanese theory of baseball, this is the space between the pitcher and the batter... think of it as a corridor of space between the pitcher's plate and home plate - and also a more existential space (actually a space-time manifold) between the pitcher and hitter as men. Whoever controls that space, controls the game. In that sense, sure the game is political. But that's far removed from the politics we're talking about.

Let's have more of baseball the game, and less of all the other crap, and we will all be the happier for it.

http://www.canoe.ca/Slam031211/col_elliott-sun.html
Bob Elliott weighs in on the Jays potential activities at the winter meetings (COMN for full link); I think he was drinking before writing the Blue Jays section:

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

NEEDS: Relief help, starter to replace Kelvim Escobar, (freed up $10 M), cheap defensive shortstop.

WANTS: RP Roberto Hernandez, LHP Glendon Rusch.

AVAILABLE: Either C Kevin Cash or Guillermo Quiroz

Craig, actually, I'd agree but add that the baseball we've been talking about for six weeks -- who's going where?, who whould win what?- is primarily political.

That said, it sounds like you may have already read it, but if not (and for everyone) maybe the best tome on Kapanese baseball philosophy out there is You Gotta Have Wa, author I can't recall right now. Highly recommended.

Wow - even Griffin is more educated than Elliot, it would seem. Yeah, if anyone has a Glendon Rusch-like starter, we'll give you Quiroz - toss in some Mexican food, and you can have Dustin McGowan, too.

Seattle re-signed Randy Winn to a three year contract. I guess that will quiet the Vlad to Seattle rumours.

Pettite's deal was $31.5 for 3 years or $10.5/year.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=27
David Cameron had a chat at BP and several questions were about the Jays. COMN to read it.

Pettitte's an Astro...3 years, $31.5 Million (apparently $7.5M less than the Yankees were offering). Pettitte will get $5.5 million next season, $8.5 million in 2005 and $17.5 million in 2006

And if WFAN is correct, the Red Sox made a late, hard push for Pettitte.

Wait a sec...if Cameron is signing with the A's where the hack is Kotsay going to play? No way he's a corner outfielder and he's way overpaid to be a 4th outfielder, plus Byrnes did that job decently last year. Is it just me or has Beane made some headscratching moves this winter? I guess we just have to wait everything out. Knowing Beane he'll turn Kotsay into Joe Mauer and Johan Santana.

Apparently Mark Buerhle has signed a 3 year extension for $18 million. The numbers are something like $4 million/ $6 million and $8 million. It only takes away his remaining arbitration eligible years. Its an interesting measuring stick for Halladay. Clearly Halladay is the better pitcher but I think it confirms some of the numbers people have talked about here. Halladay has two more years of arbitration eligibility. So you need to look at the last 2 years of this deal. I would say Halladay is worth between $1 million and $2 million more per year. That would put Halladay at around $7-8 million for this year and $9-10 for next.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=1684103
Dan Plesac retires. Click on my name.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=olney_buster&id=1683782
I love this quote

"But the loss of Pettitte will be a huge broadside blow to the Yankees' chances of actually making it into the playoffs, something they've done in every season since 1995. Boston will probably be the divisional favorite going into next year, and Toronto is a very dangerous team for the Yankees, young and hungry, two qualities that might have escaped the Yankees for the foreseeable future."

From a column by Buster Olney @ ESPN

Dan the man. I loved his time in TO, he's a good guy and a class act. I wish him well in his retired life. Wasn't he at one time talking about retiring and moving to TO to raise horses?

Mark Buehrle is not, in my opinion, in the same league as Halladay. All of his stats last year were off, including the all-important K/9IP. He struck out less than 5 per game, after being at about 5.5 the previous seasons. It is very, very hard to succeed at all striking out this few. There is a much, much greater chance that Halladay will be a fine pitcher 3 years from now than Buehrle. If Halladay falls off the radar in that time, it is much more likely to be because of a serious injury than simply a descent into ineffectiveness.

If Buehrle is worth $6 and $8 million in his last 2 years of eligibility, I'd say Roy is worth at least $9 and $12 million in his last 2 years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1684122
HIJACK - Yankees acquire Kevin Brown for Weaver and 2 minor league prospects. Didn't take George long to respond, after losing Petitte. COMN for the ESPN story.

Mussina, Vasquez, Brown, Contreras, Leiber

vs.

Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield

What does this move cost Pettitte, in addition to $7.5M annually (though that's misleading because Texas has no state income tax and New York has one of the nation's highest) and the likelihood of post-season checks (still possible with the Astros, but less likely than in the Bronx)?

I've said it before (and been mocked here on Da Box) and I'll say it again ... it costs Pettitte a legitimate chance at the Hall of Fame.

Wait, wait. Again, I'm NOT saying he should end up in the Hall of Fame. I'm just saying if he'd gone on to be the winningest pitcher in the history of the winningest franchise in the history of the game -- and he at least had a reasonable shot at that -- then he was a mortal lock to be elected, for many of the wrong reasons outlined in The Politics of Glory.

Not to mention the fact that he had an only partially-deserved reputation as "Big Game Andy" which -- the reputation, not the reality -- would hae bolstered his cause considerably.

Has Brown given his consent ? he has a no-trade - I heard this morning that he hadn't been consulted.

The deal has been worked out contingent on the sign off on the no trade clause ($$$), and the passing of physicals and the Yankee's due diligence on Brown's contract. I wouldn't call it a slam dunk just yet, ESPN may have broken the news a little early.

Mick, it may have caused him a shot at the HOF but it may have kept his family together. Juggling of priorities, just like we all do.

The Dodgers sure seem to be adrift. With an impending franchise sale looming they seem to be in a perpetual holding pattern. I don't see how this trade improves their short term prospects. They save 15 million (Brown's owed $30 million),trade a "jerk" for another "jerk" who can't pitch anymore. For the Dodger's sake the 2 prospects better be reasonable. The team seems to be writing off 2004.

Mike G, I agree that Halladay is a better pitcher but to say that Buehrle is not in the same class is a bit of a stretch. Here are their career lines:

Halladay - 841 Inn; 845 H; 242 BB; 607 K; 123 ERA+
Buehrle - 724 Inn; 729 H; 189 BB; 419 K; 124 ERA+

Buehrle has the better BB/9 rate stats, and Halladay has the better K/9 rate stats.

Where there was a substantial difference was in their 2003 seasons. As you say, Halladay had a much better season than Buehrle in 2003, but after a pretty horrible start to last year Buehrle wasn't far off his normal pace for the rest of the year. Buerhle's K rates haven't ever been good and it hasn't appeared to hurt him too much.

The question is what is the difference between the two worth. I know that the relationship between talent and payment is not linear!

Do the Yankees still have minor leaguers to trade?

A good deal for both clubs, better for LA. The Dodgers get a younger, cheaper pitcher who's better than he's showed in New York -- in Dodger Stadium, he could be a revelation. The Yankees get a reliable starter who can be utterly dominant when he's at his best -- but who is also old, easily injured and very expensive. But he's a name, which is why George wants him. Considering the Yankees were probably ready to dump Weaver's contract for free, anything that Brown gives them should be considered a bonus.

Nigel, the problem with Buehrle is that his K rates were marginally OK to begin with and are falling. It is quite possible that he will be utterly ineffective in 2 or 3 years despite being healthy. There are many examples of pitchers in baseball history who were effective striking out 5-5.5 per game and then lost something and struck out 4.5 or less per game and never regained effectiveness.

The only pitcher that I can think of who had success for more than a season striking out less than 4.5/9IP was Bob Tewksbury in the early 90s. Another example and a good role model for Buehrle would be Jimmy Key whose K rate fell in 88-89 to a dangerously low level, but Key pulled it back up and was a great pitcher for many years after that.

To put it another way, Buehrle's performance in 03 raised questions about his ability to even hold down a major league job for 3 years. I'm not saying that he won't pull a Jimmy Key and bring the K rate up to the safe 5-6/9IP range, but that there is that risk with Buehrle which is simply not there with Halladay.

Mike, I understand your point and what happened during the first two months of last season may be a risk factor. But look at Buerhle's numbers:

2001-5.1 K/9
2002-5.0 K/9
2003-4.7 K/9 (but from June 1 forward 5.1 K/9)

I don't see anything yet to suggest that he will drop off the table in the next few years. I agree with the premise that Roy is clearly better.

Wow, I did not know that Weaver is owed so much money for the next two years? MLB Contracts Page seemed to think otherwise about his contract (6.25 and 9.25).

Oh well, I guess the official press report is correct, funny how the Yanks still take on about 7.5 million in this trade, despite their prospects.

Knowing Beane he'll turn Kotsay into Joe Mauer and Johan Santana.

Wow, when did Rob Neyer start posting on this site?

What does this move cost Pettitte, in addition to $7.5M annually

$7.5 over 3 years

The Score is reporting the Jays have signed Miguel Batista. No terms were disclosed.

R Billie, you da man. Let's hope it's true; that would be absolutely great. Can we confirm it anywhere else?

http://www.fan590.com/eprise/main/fan/index.html
Mike Wilner will be on the FAN for the next hour. COMN.

Mike Wilner is taking calls for the next hour on The FAN 590. I'm hoping he has the details, and have opened a new thread that includes the phone numbers. Let his producer, Rob Pizzo, know that you're from Da Box and you'll get on the air.

WTF, is Stark off is rocker?!?!

We've just finished one of the quietest Novembers in hot-stove history. So it would be a bigger upset than Chaminade-Villanova if this didn't turn into one of the wildest, craziest winter meetings in years.

Look at this site, tell me it's been quiet. Oh hey, it suddenly got quiet in here. Go figure.

Vlad to Cleveland? Can this be true?

http://www.cir.blogspot.com/2003_12_01_cir_archive.html#107118703333237636
Hah, this is wild stuff. COMN to read the story on the Cleveland Indians Report blog about the supposedly imminent Vlad signing (4 yrs, $60 million). The guy supposedly got it from a highly-placed Indians source, and all that that implies.
Even wilder, there is now a rumor going around (I got it from Primer) that the report is a hoax perpetrated by someone who stole the blogger's password. Kind of unbelievable that someone would go to the trouble of writing an in-depth and well-thought out lie, intertwining about a dozen rumors. Don't hackers usually just scrawl "Cheez Rulez" or something across the top of a page and get out of there?

Lee Sinins is reporting that the Yankees have publicly denied the Brown/Weaver trade has been made.

And just for the record, a couple of buddies from college work for the Indians front office -- sales, not GM-type stuff, so take this for what it's worth -- and the Vlad signing rumors are a cause for much hilarity.

From Lee Sinins:

According to the Seattle Times, if the Mariners don't sign free agent SS Miguel Tejada, they may turn their attention to Vladimir Guerrero.

Good to see the Mariners have their priorities straight.

But seriously, if the Mariners want Guerrero, my guess is they can land him. The notoriously shy slugger seemed comfortable in Montreal, and Seattle has a distinct Montreal of the West Coast flavour to it. All things being equal my gut tells me he'd pick Seattle over New York, Baltimore, and Anaheim.

Can they get the deal done for, say, 4 yrs, $65M? That $13M they wasted on Ibanez could have been used to sweeten the deal. (Honestly... shouldn't Bavasi have focused on Tejada and/or Guerrero first, and then worried about picking up Baird's table scraps?)

Whoops. That "gut" should have brought you here.

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2481
I was reading the fantasy GM stuff at BP and ran across this nugget:

You have to appreciate the nice touch of Oakland and Toronto getting together to make another deal, but the Blue Jays will trade Cash over Keith Law's dead body

Coach and Jordan, I have a request. It would be nice to have some contributors' work archived like the farm reports are. There has been some very fine research work done by Robert Dudek on a number of topics, and also Dave Till (regarding the minors to majors progress of Jay farmhands).

The site is very well organized, and this step would help make interesting old (2 months old sometimes!)work more accessible.

Mike Green

Mike, you must be a mind-reader (or you've got a beta version of Bill Gates' e-mail snooper). Kent, Craig and I have been kicking around a number of redesign ideas for the Box, which will include a substantial reorganization of the left-hand directory. Robert's and Dave's articles, along with others of note, will be in separate categories, easily navigable. I think Bauxites will like the fresh look we end up with. Nobody has time this close to Christmas, of course, but January is a reasonable target date.

I have a contest. The prize? My admiration and respect.

Jason Stark has proposed 10 trades that are likely to go down this weekend. Pick the guy you think will be traded first from this list.

1. Troy Percival
2. Odalis Perez
3. Jacque Jones
4. Magglio Ordonez
5. Paul Konerko
6. Caros Lee
7. Frank Thomas
8. Freddy Garcia
9. JD Drew
10. Kyle Farnsworth
11. Jarrod Washburn
12. Ramon Ortiz
13. Aaron Sele
14. Scott Williamson
15. BH Kim
16. Paul LoDuca

(Note: I intentionally removed Jeff Weaver from the list since that deal is in the process of being finalized.)

Each player can only be chosen by 1 poster. As a result, a maximum of 16 posters can play this game. Each poster must decide on 1 player from the list of 16 and 1 player only. Deals must be both finalized AND reported on ESPN.com to be declared official. I'm excluding myself (because I already respect and admire myself...there's no motivation).

Come on, show us your prognostication skils.

http://economics.about.com
To the dismay of Rochester Red Wings fans, I think Jones is a goner, which means the Redbirds are going to lose a decent player to the big club.

Mike

Great news, Jordan, and no, I don't have any of Bill Gates' snoopware.

Spicol, Mike M beat me to Jacque Jones, so I'll take a flyer on Freddy Garcia.

I'm terrible at these things, but on the off chance that it would earn Spicol's respect, gimme Drew.

Oh, and Kim to the Jays is my Christmas wish for myself, either by trade or as a non-tendered FA.

By the way, whoever picks Aaron Sele is a rotten egg.

JD Drew!

Craig, you're too slow.

By the way... now that I've taken a couple weeks without reading Primer, I hate going over there now. It's terrible... unreadable...

Sorry, buddy. I own Drew.

It's terrible... unreadable...

I still visit Primer once in a while, to check the front page for new features, scan Clutch Hits for interesting links, and see what the Oracle has to say, but I gave up reading the discussions for good when that now-removed thread about Joe Torre's admirable charity work took an appalling turn.

Gaack. Konerko then!

Kim will get traded after the Red Sox sign Keith Foulke.

Put me down for Jacque Jones...I predict it'll be to the BoSox for Kim after they tade Ramirez to the Rangers for Rodriguez. No, I'm not serious. Boston won't pull the trigger on A-Rod.

Put me down for Jacque Jones...

Moffatt has Jones. Pick again.

Williamson

Moffatt has Jones. Pick again.
Sigh...Okay. I'll take Farnsworth.

Odalis Perez.

Ramon Ortiz.

Excellent choice, Mr. German. I'd have picked him myself.

Carlos Lee or Washburn? Lee or Washburn? Washburn or Lee? Burn or Washlee?

I'm going with Washburn. Admiration and respect, here I come!

The list so far...

1. Troy Percival
2. Odalis Perez - Jordan
3. Jacque Jones – Mike Moffatt
4. Magglio Ordonez
5. Paul Konerko – Craig Burley
6. Carlos Lee
7. Frank Thomas
8. Freddy Garcia – Mike Green
9. JD Drew - Coach
10. Kyle Farnsworth - A
11. Jarrod Washburn - Christian
12. Ramon Ortiz – Jonny German
13. Aaron Sele
14. Scott Williamson - Gerry
15. BH Kim - Gitz
16. Paul LoDuca

Can I still play? All the good guesses are taken so I'm gonna take a real flyer on this and predict Frank Thomas to the Dodgers for Odalis Perez.

With the 12th pick in the draft I'll take Carlos Lee.

I'll take Sele. I'm sure I won't win, but maybe an first division finish?

You can still play. Thomas is yours. If it plays out as you predict, you'll have to share my respect and admiration.

Sele is due to be paid $8.5MM. He'll be harder to move than a Hamiltonian in line at Tim Hortons. (Note to Americans: That's like, really, really hard ok?)

Percival, Maggs and LoDuca remain unselected.

Sele is due to be paid $8.5MM. He'll be harder to move than a Hamiltonian in line at Tim Hortons. (Note to Americans: That's like, really, really hard ok?)

AHAHAHAHAH

All right, so I'll get buried. The lesson, kids, is always do your homework, especially before joining online gentlemen's bet baseball trade pools.

I will take Troy Percival !

Hm my choices are LoDuca and Magglio Ordonez? I'll take Ordonez, because he's kept my Baseball Mogul Online team afloat in many a league... go on, Magg-O, get dealt!

I'll take Chan Ho Park.

I'll take Chan Ho Park.

The five words John Hart most longs to hear, from anyone.

Carlos Lee

Thank you, Coach. I needed that chuckle.

And Coach wins. Congrats.

It was easy, I just knew that Weaver deal would happen soon.

Pardon?

Never mind.

Congrats, Kent. I'd previously respected you at times and admired you at others but now, for the first time, respect and admiration are combined in one fabulous prize!