Loaiza won #20 this afternoon and will end the year with a sub-3 ERA if he doesn't squeeze in one more start on 3 days rest (and really, why would he now?).

A win tonight will pull the Jays to within 6.5 games of Seattle, only half a game more than the gap between Seattle and Oakland.

This is the kind of thing I had in mind a couple of years ago when I picked up Lugo in a Full Count league. Didn't work out so well at the time.

Escobar escaped a bases-loaded jam of his own making and should be thankful it isn't worse than 1-0. Lugo hit a "get-ahead" fastball that was down the middle, above the belt, then Kelvim seemed reluctant to throw strikes until Gil Patterson came out to chat with him.

Talking to a player who won't look at me is a pet peeve; the way Kelvim stares straight ahead and appears to be ignoring the coach is another reason I find him hard to like. He sure has good stuff, though.

Pardon my glee at John Burkett's misfortune, but he deserves it. Seven hits, including a grand slam, for five earned runs, and he's gone (replaced by Brandon Lyon) after a third of an inning.

I expect this is the last time Kelvim will ever pitch for the Blue Jays - especially with the comments J.P. made last night

Pardon my glee at John Burkett's misfortune

Mister "I won't be going to the all-star game so don't bother inviting me" may not be getting invited to the post-season either (though Suppan ain't exactly locking down the #4 spot in the rotation).

Geoff:
what did JP comment last nigt?
I can't see a better #3 pitcher out there, it's all about the money...

Geoff, what did J.P. say?

J.P. said he was dissapointed with Kelvim's initial demands - that they were high and although they'd love to have him back not at close to the price he is asking for

that was when he was in the booth with Faulds and Cerutti

They MUST be playing without signs these days. Hinkse steals second.

...and it pays dividens quickly, Bordick singles him home to tie the game and alertly moves up to second on the throw.

Escobar has thrown 82 pitches through four innings. Roy Halladay he ain't.

120 pitches and he is still in the game!

If that was Kelvim's last appearance as a Blue Jay, it was interesting. He did need 131 pitches to complete seven innings, and he walked five, but struck out 10. If the bullpen can hold the 3-2 lead, he'll be 13-9, and he just surpassed his previous career high with 180.1 IP.

Whether he'll get the three year deal he wants, in the $15 million range, remains to be seen, but I wouldn't make that kind of commitment, and I don't think J.P. should. Make him a qualifying offer, wish him well, hope he goes to the NL, and collect the draft picks.

http://economics.about.com
Make him a qualifying offer, wish him well, hope he goes to the NL, and collect the draft picks.

I've got this feeling that he'll be an Oriole next year. Just a hunch.

I wouldn't be surprised if the O's were the Phillies of 2003-2004 off-season and spent $30 signing Escobar, Vladi, and Millwood.

Mike

You gotta love Reed Johnson. The hit streak is over, after an intentional walk to load the bases, but he hit .391 for those 20 games and got himself in the club record book.

Only Sparky would even attempt to score all the way from first on a wild pitch. The Jays did count two, as Vernon Wells drew the RBI walk, and the pitch got away from Toby Hall, allowing O-Dog to score from second. Reed was out at the plate when Joe Kennedy finally tracked down the ball, but it was worth a try. 5-2 Jays, and Aquilino is looking sharp.

I'd offer him 14 million for 3 years, with an IP bonus that kicks in after 200 IP a season (say 500,000 each time he does it).

This is why:

1) This is how much an average starting pitcher with a few years under his belt makes
2) I expect Escobar to be above average
3) He's not old, hasn't pitched a lot of innings as a youngster, has great stuff, and hasn't had arm problems. Therefore,
4) I think he isn't a (high) injury-risk.

Power pitchers generally improve their control as they fully mature. I've seen some improvement in this area this year and expect to see continued incremental improvement.

To sum up, I think the money as outlined above would be a good calculated risk (much better than spending money on Terrance Long, for example) because of Escobar's assortment of high quality pitches.

All that said, I think Escobar can get a richer deal on the open market, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he turned this type of offer down.

http://economics.about.com
One reason Kelvim has a pretty low ERA this year is the fact that he's keeping the ball in the park better this year. His HR/9 is at 0.81, compared to his pre-2003 career mark of 1.03. Is this difference due to a new ability to prevent home runs or is it an abberation? I guess your answer to the largely determines whether or not you want to resign him.

At 5M/season I wouldn't take the chance. I'd like to see the Jays sign more projects and use the money to lock up their young players, so they can make a run in 2005 or 2006. I have a feeling that's the way JP will go.

Mike

P.S. Kelvim's BB/9 rates are 4.73 (historic) and 4.21 this year which helps as well. His K/9 rate is actually down from 8.75 to 8.61.

Robert, I agree with your assessment of Escobar. He should be a little better than average, but his range of performance could reasonably be anywhere from disastrous to superb.

It is true that the market will value Escobar at 5-6 million at least, but then the market did the same for Todd Stottlemyre about 10 years ago. My own view is that the market overvalues the average pitcher at his prime. I'd rather take my chances with Curt Schilling and a rookie than two Kelvim Escobars.

I'd make him a qualifying offer and that's it.

Mike, one explanation for the HR/9 rate is that for a vast number of appearances, Escobar faced the opposition line-up only one time through the order (or less). I'd be interested in knowing what the difference is between his relief appearances and games that he started in terms of HR/9.

I'd like to point out that the Jays are, by W-L, as good as the White Sox. Given strength of schedule, they're probably better.

Other comparable teams include the Phillies and Dodgers (a little better by W-L) and the Diamondbacks and Cardinals (a little worse by W-L).

...and the Fighting Jays a team we all consider to be a strong candidate to get a lot better. 2005 is going to be scary good.

[/wide-eyed optimism]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/030924teamusa.html
Hijack....

Gabe Gross, according to BA, was invited to try out for the US Olympic baseball team.

Me Grimlock won the SkyDome race thing tonight. Go Level 200!

I think you take more of a risk going with Curt Schilling than 2 Escobars. If Schilling gets hurt there goes your entire investment; with 2 Escobars you're fairly certain to get quality innings from at least one of them. It's very possible that both Escobars will be as good as Schilling even if the latter is healthy.

With Kelvim, a lot depends on an assessment of his character. If you're able to determine that he's serious about getting better, then you're very likely to have one of the 10 best starting pitchers in the league in short order - he's got that much upside.

I'm not optimistic that the pitchers the Jays have in their system are going to be stars by 2005 or 2006 - they're not that close to the majors and most picthers need an adjustement period of 2 years or so. That's why the Jays will need to find 2 starting pitchers from somewhere by 2005 if they want to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox. Kelvim is a good bet to be one of those pitchers (for someone).

I think if the cash is in the neighbourhood of $5 million per, the Jays probably have to sign Kelvim. Is he an 18-20 game winner? Likely not, in my view, but can he win 15 and perhaps shave a bit off of his walk rate? Perhaps. Even if he pitches badly, his stuff should stay live enough that he could be dumped on someone else in a worse-case scenario.

I realize that the Jays don't believe in overpaying players, and they've done an excellent job in this area. At the same time, if JP isn't willing to sign him then there has to be a plan to replace him, and considering that Lidle's spot will need to be filled too (and possibly Lurch's), I don't know where this many decent arms are going to come from.

I suppose if Doc can get a deal done first, that will help set out the financial restraints on Escobar a lot more clearly. It will be interesting to see whether Escobar really does want to stay and may be willing to take less to do so, or if he will just jump on the best offer he can find (which he must know won't be here).

The Phillies lose...their 5-run 8th inning rally fell short. Too bad, so sad. The Fish now have a magic number of 2.

I don't think the Jays can afford $14 million over 3 years. Seriously.

Yes, finances are that tight. No, it's not easy to like.

...and Larry Bowa has just combusted spontaneously.

Does anyone know what the team's projected budget is beyond next season?

Put me down in the retain Kelvim column.

1. The Jays would have a pretty good idea of his potential injury status versus signing an unknown commodity from outside the team (see Prokopec,Sirotka and Creek ).

2. Toronto may be a great city for most of us,but for many American players its no longer a prime destination. I don't think we can assume Toronto will be the first choice of free agents,where as given Escobar's ties to the team, if the money was competetive,I think he'd re-sign.

3. I think he's good and merely scratching the surface of his talent.

If you ever want diverse commentary on the Jays, mention this guys name.In many respects on this blog we all tend to "sing out of the same hymn book", but with this guy, what a range of opinion.

So, Vernon's batting .319 with 212 hits in 665 AB?

That's about 20 hits or 60 walks (or some combination thereof) away from hitting .350.

Who still thinks he isn't capable of one day doing it?

In some ways, Kelvim is a pitcher's version of Jose Cruz: frequent flashes of dazzling talent, but many questions about his focus and consistency. That said, the market for outfielders ain't what it is for pitchers.

Without comparing their numbers, I see a lot of Stottlemyre in Kelvim. I only hope that the latter doesn't also need to leave Toronto in order to blossom.

I'm with Jurgen. I think it is entirely possible, maybe likely that Vernon wins a batting title in the not-too-disant future. I'd say the odds of the twenty extra hits is greater than the sixty walks, though. ;)

Don't believe anybody noticed, but this is the same crew that the Cardinals had big problems with. Matheny, LaRussa, and Duncan have all been suspended.

http://economics.about.com
Speaking of Escobar, it'll be interesting to see who his "James Similar Pitchers" and "PECOTA Similar Pitchers" lists have on them.

Here's the 10 pitchers which are most similar to Escobar through age 26, according to the James method. I'm sure the list will be completely different at the end of the year:

Gene Nelson (935)
Bob Anderson (931)
Johnny Klippstein (924)
Bill Greif (920)
Jeff Russell (918)
Neil Allen (915)
Eduardo Rodriguez (914)
Erv Palica (912)
Dan Spillner (912)
Don Carrithers (909)

Wow... THE Dan Spillner.

Cheers,

Mike

Who still thinks he isn't capable of one day doing it?

Me. Hitting .350 in these times is largely the province of he singles hitters.

I mean, he's *capable* of doing it, just as he's capable of hitting .230. I don't think you'll see much of him doing either. Vernon is going to continue to develop power, as most young players do; and his batting averages will eventually (probably within a couple of years) start heading downwards.

I'd rather have Vernon swing for the fences than try to hit singles. That will help him get on base more anyway (the easiest way to first is to walk there), as well as being more useful in driving in the singles hitters who will be batting in front of him.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Todd Helton
3. Barry Bonds
4. Edgar Renteria
5. Gary Sheffield

- NL

Heh. Good point.

I think the Jays can afford 4.5 million per season for a decent starter. It's less than they are paying Escobar and Lidle (each) this year and after 2004, Delgado's deal comes off the books.

I don't think it'll be enough to sign him, but if contract length is the issue (3 years versus 2 years) then I think Kelvim is less risky than the average starting pitcher.

http://economics.about.com
I think the Jays can afford 4.5 million per season for a decent starter. It's less than they are paying Escobar and Lidle (each) this year and after 2004, Delgado's deal comes off the books.

Isn't their payroll also going down again next year, though? That could make it difficult along with the fact some of their young players will be getting raises. I'm not sure they have room for a 4.5 million dollar player next year. 2005 shouldn't be a problem.

How much will the Jays have to play with in the off season? Has anyone done any number crunching?

Mike

Isn't their payroll also going down again next year, though?

To $48 million. Halladay is still unsigned for 2004 and 2005 and that "$11 million" is going to have to go at least partly to him.

A couple of unrelated thoughts.

Do we think the Escobar sexual assault trial will factor into the Jays thinking?

The Jays payroll is around US$50 mil. If we include the costs of the minor league teams, the GM, scouts, etc. the total US$ exposure is at least US$70 mil. I am not sure how much US$ receipts the Jays receive. But the savings to the Blue Jays from the appreciation in the Canadian dollar, on the expense side of the books, is around Can$15 mil. So I am wondering why the payroll should reduce, when by merely keeping it at the same US$ level, the payroll would be much cheaper in Can $.

Gerry, that assumes that the Canadian dollar will keep its current strength agaisnt the U.S. dollar, and (more importantly) that the U.S. dollar expenditures weren't already hedged against on a long-term basis.

I liked it in the old days, when fans could just speculate on trades without having to worry about the team's long-term position in currency swap agreements.

I don't think it'll be enough to sign him, but if contract length is the issue (3 years versus 2 years) then I think Kelvim is less risky than the average starting pitcher.

Don't know whether to believe it or not, but I saw a quote from Escobar today indicating he would consider a 2 year deal if the price is right.

Hey, Grimlock, what did you win?

And when are you joining the Cheer Club? :)

There is certainly something to be said for loyalty, and Escobar seems to want to pitch here. Not that that makes him a more effective pitcher, but it may make him a cheaper one.

Has anybody else seen this quote from Steve Palermo:

"I think I can convict Roy Halladay. There is outstanding evidence," said Palermo, a former AL umpire. "If he was just wild, it was a real bad time. He supposedly has pinpoint control, so how does he hit a guy two batters after a guy hits a home run and then the next guy hits a sharp single and then on the very next pitch, he hits him?"

Absurd. You can see an anti-Halladay agenda there: "supposedly has pinpoint control?". Please, Roy has a k/bb of roughly 6:1. He could throw a ball-bearing through a cheerio from 100 yards, Palermo can drop this "supposedly" stuff.

The Commissioner's office supposedly has the foresight to issue any warnings earlier than the pre-game scrum.

I have been lurking for the past couple of days, hence the aggregate vent.

Last night was great. Svend Robinson [the man who, in an ideal world, would be the Prime Minister] spoke at the law faculty here at UNB. Despite the fact that NB is overrun with conservative, right-wing tools [I will never, ever understand why anybody from the poorest region of the Country would support the united idiot right-wing parties], he got a very warm reception and multiple standing ovations. And then, to top it off, I came home to catch the Jays' came and saw that K has already tallied ten strikeouts.

They can backload an Escobar deal to make it fit within 2004 budget constraints. I'd prefer to go after him with a 3-year deal with less money per year than a 2-year deal at, say 6 million each year.

I don't suppose the genius Palermo bothered to enlighten us why a guy going for the Cy Young award would deliberately put a 2nd runner on base in a 1-0 game...

I know Escobar is frustratingly inconsistent on a start-by-start basis, but at the end of a given season aren't his stats going to look an awful lot like 15-10 with a 4.20 ERA for the next 3 years?

If Doc wins his standard 20 with a 3.00 ERA, then that's a pretty good 1-2 punch. Now let's get optimistic and say that one of the 2004 AAA studs comes up big and bumps Kelvim to #3 in the rotation in 2006. Well then that's a recipe for post-season success.

The cost in 2006 would likely be Doc at $10M/yr, Kelvim at $6M/yr and the "prospect" would still be under $1M. That's $17M for a top notch front 3. Assume the team budget is $60M by 2006, then it's 28% for the top 3 starters.
This year our top 3 (Doc, Esky and Lidle) cost us $13.5M of $50M or 27%, so I think the above is reasonable.

I'd sign Escobar for 2 yrs + an option (or 3 if it's the deal breaker) because I don't think you're going to get 15-10, 4.20 for less than $6M.

Are my estimates for Escobar's performance way out of line?

Please note my salary numbers wrt to the front 3 are meant to be illustrative and the use of "%" (for 27% and 28%) and not intended to imply exactness in any way. It's strictly a "back-of-the-envelop" exercise. Thanks.

Who still thinks he isn't capable of one day doing it?

I do.

Could Vernon Wells hit .350 one day? Answer, it's not likely, but he might. He hit .340 in Knoxville and Dunedin at age 20. If he hits 40 homers and strikes out 65 times in 600 ABs, as he can be projected to do, he has a shot at it.

I am not at all surprised by his power surge this year, because he seemed to have added a significant amount of lower body strength over the past off-season. Whether he will remain in centerfield into his late 20s with the added weight is an open question, but thankfully there are other options.

If he starts walking more, his average might go up (as Bonds' has).

If he starts walking more, the Yankees may have to have him "taken care of".

I am with Robert in the Escobar affair.He could be that good. And i think that the organization is responsible for not only the mechanics of their players, but also for the creation of a winning mentality, that have to encompass the ability to be focussed time in and time out in your performance.
Just to touch a not yet healed wound, Loaiza abused from the lax discipline in those jays of recent memory, and he wanted to be a better pitcher and got great help from his pitching coach and grow into a better pitcher, yet he just declared to the mexican press that he just could not handle the pressure for that elusive 20 win, the lesson: Based in good mechanics and good control of three pitches, he learned a fourth one with wich he could be a sort of a whole new guy in the league and now he is begging for help to deal with mind over matter argument to really mantein a dominance he just learned could be achieved.
The whole Roy saga is something that hopefully gets into the repetitive mode